Fourtrades

@MoistMango12 6 months out was always the plan. The charts are broken and are repairing as we speak. Everything is aligning once again.

I’ve been watching crypto sentiment from quality traders for months. I’m bearish with high conviction, so here’s my unfiltered view. It’s not super actionable. Bear markets are usually slow death by boredom, not clean trends - but maybe a different angle helps. Plus what would actually flip me bullish again. Sentiment: Still way too much interest to call this asset class neglected. At the 2019 lows crypto was a dead asset. Now, financially illiterate MSTR tweets still go viral and X is full of people treating “stacking sats” like a sophisticated investment thesis. That’s not bottoming behaviour. Price action: Clearly in a medium-term downtrend, the kind that requires a substantial base to sustain another bull market. In this type of price action/trend, it isn't uncommon to actually have sizeable bear market rallies which can make things difficult for both sides. That being said, I have been very unimpressed with the bear market rallies so far. Relative weakness: Even as we have had a roaring bull market, crypto has had clear relative weakness. It has always been tied to risk sentiment, even in the early days. So this relative weakness now is another red flag. Fundamentals 1: I used my first DEX in 2017, invested in a real-estate token ICO that year, and first heard the “agentic micro-transactions” thesis in 2019. A lot of that is finally happening… but prices are multiples higher and the gains are spread across way more coins. Not the clean rotation people want. Fundamentals 2: Institutional involvement will probably look nothing like the 2021 playbook. Speed vs decentralization trade-off is real. Just as likely it just becomes “the spreadsheet” layer - different coins (if any) and far less retail-friendly. Fundamentals 3: Crypto has always expanded horizontally (more coins, higher total MC, leaders don’t just take it all). L2 dynamics are still unpredictable here. Even if today’s leaders survive, the pie just keeps getting sliced thinner. Govt involvement: Strategic Bitcoin reserve? Done. That was the gold-standard bullish catalyst. Now what? We’re here and the needle hasn’t moved. Valuation: WLFI and other 2024 zero-coins still trading well above raise price. Froth from the last rally hasn’t been cleared. Compare to 2018/19 - those coins actually went to zero. We’re nowhere near that level of apathy yet. MSTR looming overhead: Could craft an entire separate essay here, but subjectively I'd put the chance of an ugly blowup in the coming years somewhere in the 15-50% chance of happening. Non-zero chance it ends with regulatory heat as well. Too many red flags... What would get me bullish again: Quite simply, at least 6 months of sideways, people clearly forgetting about the asset class. Scam coins not necessarily going to zero but getting a low volume, zero interest sideways death pattern.

@apsk32 Ah ok that makes sense.

@fourtrades Yes

@TheShortBear ETH provides yield, yes at the expense of infinite supply. The yield is dilution to all holders not operating validators. BTC no yield, yes but it doesn't need yield because its already baked into the CAGR. The constant sell pressure from miners is irrelevant on fixed supply.

Good piece on what the clarity act means for global cryptos. @adriano.feria/why-the-clarity-act-quietly-makes-ethereum-the-biggest-winner-in-crypto-0fb3829766c4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@adriano.feria…

@TedHZhang Ive never timed the squeeze on these well either. Tough play.

$DXYZ Up 150% since. Got impatient from April 15th - April 22nd where everything went vertical but this. Another one of those situations where analysis and thesis was spot on, but execution was not.

@jfsrev That day was exceptionally great but there were plenty of opportunities to get in the week after that.

Trading can be unforgiving, missing just one day in the market or passing on a single setup can cost you the outlier trade that drives a year’s worth of returns. If you missed entering $SMCI on 2024 January 19, you need to find out exactly why and fix the process gap so it doesn’t happen again. 3/2/2024 - my thoughts and pain on $SMCI 12x ATR% from 50-Ma x.com/jfsrev/status/… "I was too distracted; my focus was elsewhere. This is the only reason why I can explain why I missed such an obvious trade" - @Qullamaggie, $100mil Market Wizard

@apsk32 Where can I view this live?

@TedHZhang Warren Buffets model was based on domestic economic activity. The world has changed. We are a global economy now. The buffet model is outdated. Im not surprised its over 200%. If you adjust it for a global economy we are around 130%. That is drastically different.

When there aren’t fat pitches, uninvested cash is not an opportunity cost. It gives you the optionality to deploy into a future big opportunity. As Warren Buffett says, “cash is a call option without an expiration date with the strike price as the next big opportunity”

@100trillionUSD This survey is biased and leading. Results will be skewed

@brian_armstrong I am a heavy investor in $COIN. We all want to know what you are doing about the following. 5 Things to improve the market image of $COIN 1) Earnings hold when BTC drops Doing well: Subscription/services revenue is cushioning downturns Market concern: Total earnings still fall when crypto weakens → not cycle-proof 2) USDC / stablecoins drive majority of profit Doing well: USDC is growing fast and highly profitable Market concern: Still not dominant enough to anchor earnings like a true NIM business 3) Institutional business = high-margin engine Doing well: Massive custody footprint (ETFs, institutions) Market concern: Revenue per dollar of assets still unclear / not CME-level margins 4) Wins derivatives (real revenue driver) Doing well: Expanding globally and building derivatives presence (derbit) Market concern: Not yet a core revenue or profit driver 5) Strict capital discipline across cycles Doing well: Buybacks and cost controls improving Market concern: Still behaves like a cyclical growth company, not a steady operator

@TheShortBear Impressive call. Especially being early and getting a recovery like that. So cool!

Unreal. 6x They actually did it and the market reflected it. $NBIS

@apsk32 Where can I see a live version of this?

@TedHZhang This chart is speaking Volumes. I just don't see shorts here. Where is it going to go? 59k? The RR is terrible for shorts here 1 year out.

@fourtrades I agree, soon, but not now for me

Pretty textbook short setup in Bitcoin $IBIT

@willywoo Why would you want that to happen. Thats really destructive to BTC

Finally, IMO there's a very good chance we get a deeper bear due to a breakdown of the secular bull market in global macro.

Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait. Orange line correlates to the capital stored in BTC and it has been leaving since November. CVDD Floor Model has the advantage of climbing over time, 45.5k right now.

@coinbase Whats the interest rate?

Get your house and keep your crypto. Crypto-backed mortgages are here - increasing access to homeownership for millions of Americans. Buy a home without converting your portfolio by using BTC or USDC as collateral for your down payment. Offered by Better, powered by Coinbase.

@dpuellARK If quantum breaks encryption then every bank is at risk. The entire financial system will be at risk, not just Bitcoin.

Full paper here: ark-invest.com/white-papers/b…

In collaboration with @unchained, ARK Invest's new paper on Bitcoin and Quantum computing is live! ---- Bitcoin and Quantum Computing This paper assesses whether and how advances in quantum computing (QC) pose a risk to Bitcoin. Our two central arguments are as follows: 1. Quantum is a long-term risk but not an imminent threat. The community must continue to research and make plans for protecting the network as quantum computers improve. 2. If quantum computing were to affect Bitcoin’s cryptography, the process would be protracted and undertaken at a cost to the attacker. Today’s quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin. Meaningful breakthroughs would disrupt internet security first, triggering coordinated responses well beyond Bitcoin. In our view, quantum development will be a gradual technological progression—not a sudden “Q-day” event—giving markets and the Bitcoin network time to adapt. Quantum computers use qubits that can exist in superposition, enabling quantum algorithms to scale more quickly than classical algorithms. Their performance is measured by parameters like the number of logical qubits and the degree of logical depth, both of which must be high and error-corrected to have an impact on Bitcoin. Today’s systems operate in the so-called “NISQ era”—roughly 100 logical qubits and circuit depths in the hundreds—both well below the thresholds necessary to break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography (ECC). To do so would require at least 2,330 logical qubits and tens of millions to billions of quantum gates. Of the Bitcoin supply currently exposed to the quantum threat, ~1.7 million bitcoin (BTC) lie in vulnerable P2PK address types and are believed to be lost, and ~5.2 million BTC lie in migratable re-used or P2TR addresses—adding to ~35% of total outstanding supply. That said, quantum risk is unlikely to surface as an event but as a protracted sequence of observable milestones, as follows: Stage 0: Quantum computers exist but are not commercially useful. Today’s quantum computers operate with limited logical qubits and high error rates, presenting no threat to Bitcoin. Stage 1: Quantum computers become commercially useful in fields like chemistry and materials simulation, well before cryptographic applications manifest. Stage 2: Quantum computing becomes powerful enough to break weak keys or deprecated cryptosystems. Stage 3: Quantum computers can break elliptic curve cryptography of the kind used for bitcoin keys, but they take a long time to do so. Quantum-vulnerable bitcoin is now at risk. Stage 4: Key-breaking occurs more quickly than Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time, network viability requiring protocol-level, post-quantum cryptography upgrades. Against that backdrop, the most important investment-related questions are: 1. When will quantum computing break an elliptic curve key for the first time, and when will the subsequent break take place? 2. Who will control early quantum capability, and what will be their incentives? 3. What will quantum attacks cost relative to other more profitable or rewarding efforts? 4. How effectively will the Bitcoin community coordinate governance decisions and implement post-quantum cryptography? This paper argues that quantum risk will evolve over an extended period of time, with many intermediate warning signals and decision points. An abrupt single point of failure is unlikely.

@VitalikButerin Says the stick boy

If you've eaten so much that it's not healthy to eat more and you don't want to eat more, and you still eat more anyway "to finish the food", then you are just using your mouth as a garbage can.

@1914ad Everyone is posting this 10am thing as if its something new. Its always been a thing. 930am to 10am EST has the most liquidity. Why would they execute any other time?

⚠️ Was the 10am slam was just the warm-up? Look at silver: clean trendline, parabolic spike to $120, sudden drop to $76, now grinding back to $85. Jane Street plants the volatility, JPMorgan harvests the liquidations? Different asset, same playbook.

@LarkDavis So a billionaire buys 10million in BTC? That doesn't even make a splash.