Liam

@domluszczyszyn @olivier_amand these guys aren’t worth responding to

@olivier_amand it’s true i was the only one who thought the hurricanes were heavy favourites 🫨

carolina looks like the berube leafs right now jesus christ how many breakaways against already, four?!

@DFScashgod @Landtrader8375 @Rishibets let’s see a screenshot of one account with 6 fig profit

@Landtrader8375 @Rishibets I’m up roughly 7-8 figures this year alone so I highly doubt that, but nice

What percentage of your net worth would you have bet if you were offered Cavs +6.5 -110 when they went up 22 with 8 minutes left

@7raave @ghetto_gronk yeah Danny R, the multi billion $ organization probably has a worse idea on how to use AI than you do

@ghetto_gronk He probably doesn’t know that ai hallucinates 24/7 and there’s a learning curve to being able to actually understand how to use it correctly

John Lynch: “We’re using AI to help us make draft picks. If you aren’t using it, you’re already behind.” The 49ers 2026 draft:

@RazerbladeonYT @DucksFanZone @ieatantz if it’s wrong, you can go bet against it on Polymarket!

@frake_liam @DucksFanZone @ieatantz It’s still wrong, how is Ottawa higher when they were down 2games when this was posted

We lost one game and now have zero chance of winning???

@RazerbladeonYT @DucksFanZone @ieatantz cause they’re a better team with more upside to make a deep run if they were to mount a comeback. pretty simple!

@insomniacxbt yesterday - $chip is the one asset we’re hodling through green candles. chip away! after a 40% drawdown - closed chip at the giga top after that last pump

short now on a few things, vvv fartcoin closed chip earlier on that last pump mkts look meh

@DucksFanZone @ieatantz it’s rounded brother

@ieatantz I mean. I don't think it's likely at all but a mathematical impossibility seems crazy

@TopDownHockey so where does that project salfkovsky by age 29?

For the last 365 days, I have been undergoing a top-secret research project in the field of hockey analytics. I can now confirm my findings: NHL players actually peak at the age of 29. (This is counter to my findings from last year's research, which showed they peak at 28).

@HaggertyU @iehedbsksb70405 🤡

@iehedbsksb70405 @frake_liam If you read the card you would see a “star” is defined as a player in the 18%-tile in WAR. Your counting stats don’t display that. On Evolving Hockey Slafkovsky is in about the 50th percentile in WAR.

#GoHabsGo select Juraj Slafkovsky 1st overall. I ranked him 42nd overall. Slafkovsky's excellent scoring at the Olympics and World Championships is not incorporated by my model, which thus underrates him. However, his unspectacular production in Finland still raises red flags.

@Stakes_Royale @robpizzola yeah he would love to book your bet at 40c worse than market average at a 0% edge to his model fair price

@robpizzola I’ll take BOS +209 for everything. Thx.

I've been asked enough times that I'll share my NHL Playoff fair series prices. Full transparency these may not be good enough to beat market at this time, but I have been using them to actively add to positions today. PIT -117 / PHI +117 BUF -209 / BOS +209 CAR -126 / OTT +126 TB -264 / MTL +264 MIN -117 / DAL +117 VGK -151 / UTA +151 COL -457 / LAK +457 EDM -233 / ANA +233

@RyNoonan all of these are negatively correlated

Obviously, this won't hit; those are the rules of Make The Cut parlays, but I'll be honest, I'm not sure how or where this goes wrong. Who kills this?

@Mimic702 😭

If you had Rays F5 ML go grab an alcoholic drink If you had Brewers F5 ML say thank you to whatever God you worship

@Predictionio_ 100% recommend

Building in prediction markets? Most teams are duct-taping Polymarket, Kalshi, and sportsbook feeds together. PredictionData provides a single API for real-time and historical pricing across 200+ sources. Built for trading teams, quants, and researchers who want an edge.

@DrupsMcgametime @whopacos @BenVerlander @FDSportsbook there are 2 winners and the implied probability = 2.094 9.4% / 2 = 4.7%

@frake_liam @whopacos @BenVerlander @FDSportsbook Nope -110/-110 is ~4.8% vig, this is double that.

For those wondering just how likely it is that Team USA advances… @FDSportsbook has odds up for the 3 teams in Pool B vying for a spot in the Quarterfinals

@whopacos @BenVerlander @FDSportsbook this is standard -110 vig

@BenVerlander @FDSportsbook You can see there that Sportsbooks are fucking disgraceful 🤣

Yariel finally comes through for 🇨🇦

@HaggertyU @iehedbsksb70405 he’s certainly on pace to becoming a star and his performance has been in line with draft day expectations yet here you are standing by a model that projected a 3% chance of him becoming a star (and 23% an NHL player)

@iehedbsksb70405 @frake_liam Do you understand probabilities? He’s also not a star.

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade your bet already implies lower than 3 🤣 if 3% is fair value than you have a very bad bet

An update on Canada striking Iran This market is now trading at 3% odds People finally realized Canada doesn’t actually have an air force

@NiceQuarterGuys @jack @blocks is this what happens to companies in trouble?

@jack @blocks we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. is exactly what i'd say if i was making a decision because i was in trouble

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack