Fred Hope

1.8K posts

Fred Hope

Fred Hope

@fredakbar

Data Engineer in the SF Bay Area

SF Bay Area, CA Katılım Temmuz 2009
37 Takip Edilen40 Takipçiler
Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@thorsson_john @lxeagle17 That isn't evidence that Clinton/Harris's being a woman was the cause. Each of their losses to Trump is easily explained by other factors. Biden, a white man, was polling even worse than Harris in 2024 before he dropped out.
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John Thorsson
John Thorsson@thorsson_john·
@lxeagle17 Perhaps it’s best to say that for senator/governor/represenative, women aren’t less electable. But we have proof that Americans will vote for a completely incompetent man over qualified women when it comes to president.
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Lakshya Jain
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17·
Data on this is highly questionable outside of an n=2 (Harris + Clinton). In the thousands of downballot and gubernatorial elections we have data for, there's no evidence women are less electable. Female candidates do better with women and worse with men, but women vote more.
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022

AXIOS: Some top Democrats are quietly debating a fraught question: whether the party's best bet for winning back the presidency in 2028 is to nominate a man — perhaps a straight, White, Christian man. Former first lady Michelle Obama fueled such talk recently, saying the U.S. is "not ready for a woman." Democratic strategists have put it bluntly, with several saying a version of "It has to be a white guy." axios.com/2026/03/29/som…

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Matthew Yglesias
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias·
What weird about the “US public health failures during COVID” discourse is it tends to be constructed as if the President of the United States and his appointees at HHS, CDC, FDA, etc are somehow separate from and unrelated to American public health institutions.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@Tweetorelli @BryanJo35250064 @mattyglesias I think people also get whether a rule at least sort of makes sense. Grocery store or hospital I can at least see the logic. Dentist or restaurant where you wear it for 30 seconds then sit down and take it off? Stupid. And gym/sports with those sweaty cloth masks was a disaster.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@Tweetorelli @BryanJo35250064 @mattyglesias Trust me, California was worse. The west coast is a whole other level of crazy when it comes to this stuff. I hated the mask mandates, but on the flip side I don't have kids so the school closures didn't affect me at all but others were probably much worse off due to those.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@Tweetorelli @BryanJo35250064 @mattyglesias Correct, those things were mostly confined to the most extremely liberal areas. But those areas tend to have the highest populations, so it might not be quite as rare as you're suggesting. There was definitely a lot of variance in how people experienced PH policy.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@Tweetorelli @BryanJo35250064 @mattyglesias The worst was under Trump because it was 2020 and there was no vaccine, which is no one's fault. The continuation of unscientific mask mandates and panicky school closures for months or years (in some cases, permanently!) after spring 2021 is much excusable.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@mattyglesias - A lot of public health governance is at the local level. There's a reason some of the most nonsensical policies occurred in blue states/cities, and it has nothing to do with Trump. - Their behavior post spring 2021 (when the vax was widely available) was particularly damning.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@mattyglesias This seems like a pretty clear correlation-causation fallacy? Your screenshot contains no evidence that going to college leads one to make more money.
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Matthew Yglesias
Matthew Yglesias@mattyglesias·
There’s more to life than getting a bachelor’s degree but honestly this seems like pretty good life advice especially if you’re smart enough to get good scores on AP tests.
Matthew Yglesias tweet media
Noam Scheiber@noamscheiber

A generation of people in their 20s and 30s was told that if they do all this homework and take these AP classes and run up this debt and get their degree, their place in the upper-middle class would be secure. And suffice it to say it hasn’t worked out that way for a lot of them

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Fred Hope retweetledi
Kelsey Piper
Kelsey Piper@KelseyTuoc·
great news - House Democrats are pushing back on the deranged "no build to rent" provision that makes it harder to be a renter in America. call your rep and tell them to get Warren's idiocy excised before they support the bill
Oriana González@ReporterOriana

SCOOP: Sen. Elizabeth Warren shepherded a major housing bill through the Senate — it’s now at risk of tanking in the House Sources say she has boxed House Democrats out of negotiations, which is imperiling its support in the lower chamber notus.org/housing/elizab…

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TOCE
TOCE@AJToce·
@conorsen Are they misspelling his name on purpose?
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Andrew Murphy
Andrew Murphy@MurphSeal·
@mattyglesias It’s in the interest of defendants to delay the trial and the case as long as possible. Prosecutors job becomes more difficult with time, people move, memories become faded, ect. Defendants who are properly represented almost always waive the right to a speedy trial.
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Militantly Moderate
Militantly Moderate@shimsham395117·
@Noahpinion Also they have ZERO real power so resort to threats of violence online that they would NEVER have the guts to do IRL to feel like big strong boys.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@ReubenR80027912 This tweet feels like the perfect encapsulation of how you and @DKThomp see the world differently from each other.
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Reuben Rodriguez
Reuben Rodriguez@ReubenR80027912·
I’m remain very sanguine about the war but, if the worst case is “it hurts everyone but the US less than everyone else” that is…still a net positive The US vs EU GDP curve heavily inflects on 08/09. The US being hurt “less” is still going to be a *relative* boon to us
Philippe Lemoine@phl43

I think it will hurt the US, but it will hurt the rest of the world even more, because the US is more insulated from the both the energy shock and the economic slowdown that will result from it. I think all the other stuff will likely not matter a lot one way or another in the long run. As I keep saying, the problem with the US is that it's so rich and powerful that, except in dealing with China, it can do the stupidest shit imaginable and it won't really matter that much to Americans in the grand scheme of things, which is why you never learn.

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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@grok @PrashantM_563 @bennywords1 I think the question is about whether the photographer sees her naked while she's getting into position. Or does he look away until she's in the final pose?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
The photographer looks right through the camera viewfinder and sees the model exactly as she poses (bra, lighting, angle, everything). They direct her in real time for the best shot. It's a standard pro fashion shoot: full consent, team on set, purely for the image. No "without seeing"—they have to see to capture it.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@benryanwriter @jbarro I'm surprised more people on the pro-trans side don't make the free market argument (private women's leagues should be free to allow whomever). I guess the intersection of people who are inspired by libertarian rationales, and those who want males in girls sports, is quite small.
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Benjamin Ryan
Benjamin Ryan@benryanwriter·
Research suggests that gender-transition treatment does not fully erase the competitive advantages conferred by male puberty and that even prepubescent boys have a small advantage over girls. Some people argue that, these findings notwithstanding, inclusion should trump all (see: @EmmaVigeland of @MajorityFM). Others cannot seem to explain their reasoning. They rely on accusations of bigotry, as @JacobTaber has here, or other emotional appeals to justify inclusion. Others engage in denialism, falsely claiming that there is no competitive advantage conferred by male puberty or that Lia Thomas' time on estrogen erased that advantage for her. Above all, it's important for us to clearly establish what fairness means in sports and why there is a female category. And based on those reasons, what values should determine who gets to play and in what category? journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.11…
Benjamin Ryan tweet media
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Josh Barro
Josh Barro@jbarro·
I'm sorry, who decided that males have a right to play in girls' sports leagues? Some people just made this shit up and decided it was a civil right.
Tacob Jaber@jacobtaber

@jbarro "Turn your back on trans kids because it's unpopular to support them" is a very cynical view.

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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@EthanHiguain @conorsen He's not saying it's surprising she lost despite the endorsements, he's saying they showed poor political instincts. The race wasn't even particularly close.
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Ibe
Ibe@EthanHiguain·
@conorsen An endorsement is NOT a guarantee of success. Stop acting like it is.🤷🏽‍♀️
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
Pretty amazing that both Colin Allred and Kamala Harris (sort of) endorsed the losing candidate.
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Fred Hope
Fred Hope@fredakbar·
@CartoonsHateHer @bendreyfuss It's mostly trans-related, i.e. if you follow accounts that the trans activist community dislikes (Jesse Singal, Brianna Wu), you get classified as anti-trans.
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Nate Silver
Nate Silver@NateSilver538·
I don't think this is a particularly bold assertion?
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Keşfet

@thorsson_john @lxeagle17 @bibliographing @Tweetorelli @BryanJo35250064 @mattyglesias @commontruth_ @Noahpinion