Freddie
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THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK – UPDATE 3
Changes from Update 2: The latest UKV, AROME, ICON-D2 and other convection-allowing models are in better agreement that thunderstorms will become more widespread across western and central Britain during Thursday afternoon and evening. As a result, the Moderate Risk has been expanded across more of central and southern Britain, while the High Risk has been refined across western and northern Scotland where confidence is highest for organised severe thunderstorms. The overnight severe thunderstorm risk has also been adjusted further south across Wales and southwest England to reflect an increasing signal for organised storm clusters.
A significant thunderstorm event remains likely from Thursday afternoon through to the early hours of Friday as a warm, humid and increasingly unstable airmass moves north across the UK and Ireland ahead of an approaching Atlantic trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially across Ireland, Wales and southwest England before becoming more widespread through the afternoon. With increasing deep-layer shear, some storms are expected to organise into multicells and isolated supercells, before merging into larger clusters as they move northeast through the evening and overnight.
The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms remains across western and northern Scotland, where the overlap of instability, forcing and favourable wind profiles is expected to be greatest. Within the High Risk area, thunderstorms may produce very frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, large hail and damaging wind gusts, while repeated storms could lead to localised flash flooding. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any discrete supercell that develops ahead of the main convective clusters.
A broad Moderate Risk extends across much of Ireland, Wales, northern England, central England and southwest Britain, where numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop. While not every location will experience severe weather, the strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail, intense rainfall and frequent lightning. As storms merge into larger clusters during the evening, the risk of damaging wind gusts is expected to increase, particularly across western and central parts of Britain.
Further east, a Slight Risk extends across eastern England, with a Marginal Risk covering much of the southeast. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be lower than further west, although there remains a conditional risk that organised storms or convective clusters survive into the region during the early hours of Friday. Should this occur, locally torrential rain, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts would still be possible.
Confidence has increased since Update 2, with improving agreement between the latest high-resolution guidance on the development of organised thunderstorms. While the exact placement of the most severe storms will depend on mesoscale boundaries that cannot yet be resolved precisely, the highest confidence remains across western and northern Scotland, with severe thunderstorms also possible across much of Ireland, Wales and central parts of Britain.
I will be livestreaming from 4:00 PM BST on X and YouTube, providing live forecast updates, radar analysis and real-time storm coverage as the event unfolds.

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Freddie retweetledi

Starmer resigns - he has been a truly disgraceful Prime Minister.
I do not believe him to be a good man or a patriot.
He has deliberately and rapidly accelerated the destruction of our Britain, of our home.
History will not remember him kindly, nor should it.
I sat in Parliament, looking him in the eye, listening to him attempting to justify his decision to block a national inquiry into the mass rape of young British girls.
I will never forgive him. For that, and so much else.
What comes next, I do not know.
Whatever that is, Restore Britain will be ready to offer the British people a democratic route out - a better way, the only way.
But Starmer is gone.
And that is a good thing.
Enjoy it.
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Freddie retweetledi

@dparody @UKDefJournal It just needs a similar size vessel to push the Spanish boat away
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A Spanish Guardia Civil vessel is claimed to have approached HMS Anson at close range as the Royal Navy submarine arrived at Gibraltar, in an incident that a Gibraltar-based naval observer described as "reckless, unprofessional, dangerous".
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/spanish-vessel…
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HMS Somerset departing Faslane yesterday to resume TAPS anti-submarine operations.
(Src: @ScotlandDX)

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This is likely just the RAF supporting Jordan with F-35 CAP against drones and such. Jordan are a close ally and this provides forward protection for Akrotiri.
MenchOsint@MenchOsint
⭕️⚡️🇺🇲🇬🇧 For the first time since the beginning of the war on Iran, US & British tankers are seen refueling fighter jets over the same area in Jordan. Bonus: The Britsh KC2 tanker is beeing warned via ACARS: "JUST FOR AWARENESS YOU ARE SHOWING ON FLIGHT RADAR." 😅 (ACARS messages via @thebaldgeek very useful site)
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Freddie retweetledi

@Gabriel64869839 Any plans to put one on the Chagos Islands?
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@UKDefJournal Yes nice, but this should of been thought of 10 years ago..
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The Ministry of Defence has confirmed the scope of Project Vanquish, a Royal Navy initiative exploring a carrier-capable autonomous fixed-wing aircraft, in response to a written parliamentary question. Click image for more.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/royal-navy-pla…
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Freddie retweetledi
Freddie retweetledi

@jomickane Unfuckingbelievable. Soft men like this host will be the downfall of this nation.
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Freddie retweetledi

@mrksmith1975 That's actually not true.. crime is down. He's an amazing Mayor, as voted 3x
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The hate this man gets is the most disgusting and despicable I've seen on any platform and people wonder why he has no choice but to turn off comments (same as Meghan Sussex)
I genuinely dont know how he copes and I hope his mental health is ok.
Because its really NOT OK the level of racism and hate he receives.
Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan@MayorofLondon
Oxford Street’s Christmas lights are now on. Hundreds of thousands of stars have lit up the nation’s high street. Throughout this month London’s Christmas lights are coming to town and the festive period is the perfect time to enjoy everything the capital has to offer.
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I love this. We all know Zack Polanski was INTENTIONALLY cut off on Peston because he is sharp, savvy & informed. Literally debunking their bullshit. Every time MSM cut @ZackPolanski off they know he's started a movement they can't stop.
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