@gCaptain was the first to report this was the most likely outcome two weeks ago: gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hyp…
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Ghost Rider
3K posts
Ghost Rider
@futesquad
Futures trader
On The Bid USA Katılım Aralık 2022
994 Takip Edilen332 Takipçiler
BREAKING: US Navy will not open the Strait of Hormuz
Trump gives nations who import oil from the Middle East three options:
1) Buy your oil from US and Venezuela instead
2) Secure the Strait themselves with limited US support
Or
3) Wait for Hormuz to reopen naturally
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@futesquad @sidereal111 Are we still talking about the straight of hormuz or about the gays hormuz?
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Markets will tank once it becomes clear that the United States cannot do anything to end this. Iran currently holds the leverage, and that leverage increases with each passing day. They could make demands that are completely unacceptable to the U.S. On the other hand, the U.S. cannot simply withdraw, because doing so would allow Iran, China, and Russia to dictate a new world order: either you align with us against America, or you face losing access to energy, fertilizers, and helium.
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@futesquad Disruption poential = control. One cheap drone started out of a cave is enough
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@futesquad @cycle_strategy Not at all. Literally 0% control. You are dumb as fuck bro
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@futesquad @cycle_strategy Control the world's foremost energy chokepoint and can plunge the global economy into a depression at will lmao
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I think we may have already seen the peak prices for oil.
If there’s a ground operation, it could mark a final act and trigger a sell-the-news reaction. If there isn’t, that may also act as resolution, with risk premium fading.
In both cases, further upside looks limited to me.
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I hope Americans understand that Trump pulling out of NATO is the start of the Chinese world order.
Europe will run to China real quick and start having heavy trade/diplo relations. There is no doubt in my mind.
What does US have then? Cuba and Venezuela? Oh... and Israel.
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Oil & gas has been crushing it & stealing the headlines, but don't forget about the wind. 🌬️
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@great_martis Your country is outta fuel not ours. Showing country of origin was the best thing. Beat it grifter
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@futesquad Hey I’m not the one that got emotional over an April fools joke. That’s you buddy 💅
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Decided to sell everything here.
Oil is going to $200
We will see a massive crash.
I am also putting the house I bought 6 months ago up for sale so I can dodge the massive housing crash that will follow.
We are heading to a depression
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@MrMBrown Yeah because if we leave the 2 kayaks and 1 rowboat the UK has......
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Translation - "let me panic you into thinking I'll leave so that you stump up more cash and get involved like I want you to"
LiveSquawk@LiveSquawk
US Pres Trump: I Am Strongly Considering Pulling Out Of NATO - Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
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There's a reasonably strong chance that we have a meaningful escalation in the Iran War sooner than later.
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At this stage if Trump TACOs, Iran has little incentive to fully reopen the Strait. Keeping traffic restricted, keeps oil prices elevated and allows them to refill their war chest. #OOTT
Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH
Getting to “day one” is the real problem. Best case is May but it could easily take months. Most are conflating TACO with a reopening of the Strait. They are not the same. TACO doesn’t reopen anything. Instead, it entrenches Tehran’s veto. TACO is the worst case for markets. Even if flows resume after TACO, this won’t be a switch flip. It will be messy, partial, and conditional — think bilateral carve-outs with “friendly” countries. Russian style. Full normalization likely requires either new pipeline capacity that bypasses Tehran’s tollbooth, or a credible international naval effort (and likely boots on the ground) to finish what Trump started and may yet abandon. A “deal” is entertainment for the masses. Markets are not priced for this.
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@RudyHavenstein Nah he didnt see it, im just out here talking shit on internet like everybody else.
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@futesquad I hope Trump saw your reply.
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The power of recency bias in full view. A two day counter-trend rally & wala! All is well. Oil up 70% YTD is no longer a risk to the economy. Ok. 🤦🏼♂️
Kalshi@Kalshi
BREAKING: Odds of a recession this year plummet from 40% to 27%
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