Natty Trader

@epkaufm Assuming people don't change their minds as they mature, which every generation has

Britain leans right today but will lean left or far left in 20 years when the mostly woke Millennials and Gen-Z become the median voter. Time for conservatives to realize what time it is.

@NormOrnstein China doesn't need this to end - they are leaders in electrification. Auto buyers around the world will be switching to electric cars as we speak because of $100 oil. The longer this goes on, the more China wins.

Here is a prediction: China will push Trump to take a deal with Iran with China guaranteeing overseeing removal of nuclear material, a ten year agreement not to pursue nukes, $20 billion and lifting of sanctions, Iran opens Strait of Hormuz (and charge tolls for ships.) 1

@Wwfcwolf1 @gorbalsgoebbels Probably faster to take this from the other side

OK, tell me, what has Sir Keir Starmer done wrong?

#OOTT is it a war?!

@ChrisK22115858 That's right and this is not at all for oil export, just for goods to show inflation

@fx_commodity Trains would help but the capacity is too low - I read they send one train per 3 days (up from one per week). 9 land routes from Pakistan are helping. I think Russia&former soviet republics routes are 'forgotten'. All this is not enough to cover limited oil export, so it hurts.

#OOTT given how desperate #Trump looks to get out of #Iran, I think it's reasonable to expect #Iran to reiterate its position and play for time. Surely highly unlikely to be resolved over the weekend.

@ChrisK22115858 True, I think that's why Araghchi was in China. The freight train capacity between China and Tehran is fully booked for May, which is the first time since it opened, so they're obtaining basics to help them last longer.

@fx_commodity Yeah they have the cards. considering their collapsing economy,civil unrest and geopolitical risk they should drag it for month or so to get a good peace deal. That being said we don't know how they percive current situation and how bad is their economy.

@emma_j_saunders Yea - increased exports from the US landing in Europe

How is physical Brent so low compared to early March, when Hormuz is still shut? Is it SPR releases? #OOTT

@ChrisK22115858 Definitely maybe!

@fx_commodity I agree with about being far from deal in negotiations but I think will have more of the 'news' today as in every Friday 😂

#OOTT I'm going out on a limb her but my guess would be we've heard nothing because #Iran is not budging but #Trump needs a deal. I think we'll keep going with the blockade.

Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit Russia’s Yaroslavl Oil Refinery overnight, setting it ablaze.

@financialjuice #OOTT UAE: air defense systems engaging missile and drone threats 08 May 2026 4:41

رصد سفينة مشتعلة في مضيق هرمز، تم رصدها قبل 60 دقيقة. على الأرجح إحدى السفن التي تحاول عبور الجانب العماني إلى جانب البحرية الأمريكية.

#OOTT 45,000 lots of crude options open at $100 strike - things could be sticky around here!

@DeItaone IRGC first trade

CME GROUP PLANS TO LAUNCH NEW PHYSICALLY BASED URANIUM CONTRACT IN COMING MONTHS, SOURCES SAY

@RusGarbageHuman He was indicating the whole time and they overtook him on the wrong side of the road - he's not at fault

I will vote for the party that makes it legal to run over balaclava wearing thieves.

@Event_Based I don't see why Iran let's the US out this easily. If they don't agree now, I think Trump has shown he doesn't want the economic fallout and doesn't have the ability to open Hormuz, so Irans best option is to keep going, unless Trump gives them everything to get out.

@fx_commodity Honestly not sure, I’d argue right now we are in a very unstable equilibrium and are quite likely to decay either into a deal or renewed combat in the short term. Trump admin really has only bad options, but generally feel like they are biased toward violence. Your thought?

Okay if we just think about the situation logically, if there has been any progress in negotiations, based on the battlefield, the US would have moved closer to Iran’s side. It’s probably a blatant lie, but if not, implies some amount of capitulation by the US. #oott #hormuz

@daveatherton @sebastiansalek This guy is unbelievably stupid

It's tough to make sense of Labour's @sebastiansalek argument. His reply to migrant sexual crimes is to deflect to tourists being allowed in. With a tourist we have a photo, name, address & under the 1971 Immigration act, we can deport anyone on the spot. The cast is @WillKingston, @_ConnieShaw, @DrHoenderkamp & @cristo_radio

@Event_Based What do you think comes next?

@fx_commodity Certainly appears so, guess you have to suppress a record draw somehow…

@AndreasSteno they cut 20,000 flights

So the jetfuel shortage stories were alarmist as well