EventBased

Kharg island will be targeted, Hormuz will be closed. Oil will go crazy, the world doesn’t suspect it yet.

"Iran still has 70% of its missiles" is both an argument against or *for* renewed military action, depending on the perspective.

00:39/ May 15 In light of the continued flights of strategic bombers (B-1B Lancer) from Britain to the Mediterranean and the mobilization of the refueling fleet as a final tool of threat, we are faced with a highly sensitive scene. Most likely, the US-China summit will yield a "general framework" agreement dictated by the terrifying global economic reality. China will press to formulate a settlement that guarantees Iran recognition of its sovereignty and rights, along with the gradual decoupling of sanctions, in exchange for Tehran ensuring the flow of energy and temporarily freezing certain nuclear activities to save Trump's face. This compulsory settlement will inevitably include compelling Israel to a ceasefire in Lebanon, because Tehran will not compromise on the "unity of the arenas" clause, and Washington will not risk the collapse of the agreement for the sake of the embattled Netanyahu's goals. Otherwise, we are heading toward a collapse of the Beijing talks due to the US administration's intransigence or its capitulation to Israeli pressures demanding the dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program. This failure would immediately translate into an American decision to execute a massive aerial operation (bombing 25% of the remaining Iranian targets). This would push Iran to activate its remaining absolute control (at 90%) over its missile system to strike US and Israeli bases, as well as power stations in the Gulf, plunging the world into economic paralysis and a grinding regional war that would write the end of American influence in the Middle East.

I think if your Xi, you actually encourage Trump to go back into Iran. Kind of selling Iran down the river, but strategically very sound if you want to make a move for Taiwan. #oott

۱۹:۱۷/ ۲۳ اردیبهشت عربستان سعودی به یکی از موانع از سرگیری عملیات نظامی امریکا علیه ایران تبدیل شده است. علت این امر علاقه سعودی به ایران نیست بلکه علت این است که عربستان عقیده دارد در صورت آغاز جنگ ضربات بسیار شدیدی از جانب ایران دریافت خواهد کرد بی آنکه امریکا از آن دفاع کند. یک سند داخلی سعودی می گوید عربستان نگران است سرنوشتی مانند امارات پیدا کند که در جنگ ۴۰ روزه مورد حملات شدید ایران قرار گرفت اما ترامپ هیچ علاقه ای به دفاع از آن از خود نشان نداد. روابط سعودی و امارات به دلیل رقابت ها در یمن و بازار انرژی رو‌ به وخامت است.

I think the main reason that people are comparing now to dot-com, is that in both instances the technology is genuinely world changing, but the financialization of it is probably too much. #NQ #QQQ #AI

Prompt Brent futures are currently $103/bbl, while latest Dated Brent quote is at $105/bbl. Hardly the stuff of acute dislocation. World is in a record supply deficit, though at this stage market still choosing to be more patient re: accumulating the consequences than I expected—but it’s not a phys/paper disconnect. This particular talking point is more of a distraction than a helpful highlight at this stage, imho.

@RichardMNephew @BarakRavid At some point you bear responsibility for the corruption and become complicit. There is a reason propaganda ministers are often considered war criminals.

Ridiculous and disgusting. @BarakRavid is a pro and a must read. And, btw, blaming a reporter (see root word of "to report") for the actual unethical behavior of the people in actual positions of authority is doubly aggravating.

@BarakRavid @VictoriaCoates Yeah yeah get your @FDD guys to back you up too! Then you’ll have the moral high ground! All criticism is antisemitic, sorry I don’t make the rules…. That’ll show them.

@VictoriaCoates Thank you

It was just a matter of time until the Antisemites come out of their filthy holes and join the campaign of lies against me. The classic tropes: Mossad, controlling the world, trying to make money. Decent people here should come out publicly against this kind of hate

@DarioCpx Air defense active in UAE.

Unusual move on oil prices at this time of the overnight trading session - just a FYI

Holy shit. We are now telepathically connected.

۲۳:۳۱/ ۱۷ اردیبهشت ایران پاسخ نظامی به محاصره دریایی را آغاز کرده است. یگان های نظامی سنتکام که عامل حمله به شناورهای ایرانی باشند مورد هدف قرار خواهند گرفت. امشب به این علت، درگیری هایی رخ داده است.

🤷‍♂️

۲۳:۰۰/ ۱۷ اردیبهشت اصابت هایی در قشم و بندرعباس گزارش شده است. عاملیت حمله ها با امریکا و رژیم اسراییل است و امارات، آشکارا و سعودی، پنهانی در آن مشارکت دارند. امواج موشکی و پهپادی در آستانه شلیک است.

@calvinfroedge Narrative will be we need AI to replace all the people lost lol

If we confirm hantavirus as the next global pandemic and we think it might kill a significant percentage of the global population I'm going all in on semiconductors

@mmm_btus The adventure.

@Event_Based Between the two vessel attacks or between the two versions of the adventure

What if project freedom was a test And attacks on vessels last night proved the Iranian diplomatics cannot control the irgc. Thus they failed the test What if he is pretending a deal is coming now for element of military surprise Im seeing even bibi following the script

@fx_commodity Honestly not sure, I’d argue right now we are in a very unstable equilibrium and are quite likely to decay either into a deal or renewed combat in the short term. Trump admin really has only bad options, but generally feel like they are biased toward violence. Your thought?

@Event_Based What do you think comes next?

Okay if we just think about the situation logically, if there has been any progress in negotiations, based on the battlefield, the US would have moved closer to Iran’s side. It’s probably a blatant lie, but if not, implies some amount of capitulation by the US. #oott #hormuz

I mean how else should it be read, it is the message being telegraphed.

@Rory_Johnston They opened the strait silly 🤪. Of course this is how it trades 🥹

Brent crude prompt futures (white) vs S&P 500 futures (blue) over the past 5 trading days

@JakeWilkns @BarakRavid You know both can be operating in bad faith, it is not mutually exclusive. Similar to this bad faith attempt to imply that people are upset with Ravid due to antisemitism.

POLITICO: "I have sources telling me today that they feel like this is getting closer to at least that framework agreement that Axios reported on." And yet certain critics aren't attacking him (and they shouldn't) the same way they're attacking @BarakRavid! Hmm! Wonder why!