LP

Burn baby burn 🔥🔥🧯

@FoFtyTrader Needle top? Nahhhhh….

current state of the markets

@dampedspring @TheAndreiZZ Will you add to your put spreads given they should be cheaper now? Or would you buy some of the lower strikes back at a profit now keeping the higher strikes intact?

@TheAndreiZZ My posture hasn't changed.

My view of the setup 1. Buy/hold as long as US can suggest a deal is imminent 2. Sell a deal is signed 3. Sell a U.S. escalation But I don't know shit

@enochhowl @BickerinBrattle Exactly. And if we crash from All Time Highs (Fridays levels) it will be the first time in history.

@BickerinBrattle Perhaps if world war or a massive cyber attack occurs. You need persistent economic disruption first imo.

In many ways all my education, such that it is, of the last 40 years with all its significant failures and great success (have been the CIO or the head PM or on the investment committee for now a cumulative total of 250 billion risk ) and this market will crash at the level 29

@BickerinBrattle @Tsunehme Wow… this is what throwing away Capital looks like.

@Tsunehme about 20% net liquid worth

i am gonna go down with the ship on this one. it is all my money now so wont get fired. this market is gonna crash and will be last one in my lifetime so want to get it all.

I should have sold these last two putts earlier today with the others. Oh well. $USO

Slow week. But it was expected given I chose to only do mostly spreads & burn OTM premium. $ES $QQQ $SPY $USO

@paxtrader777 @CatholicArena @grok I’m catholic. But two things … 1. Trump historically makes fun of a LOT of sensitive subjects he should never touch on. 2. He’s always been a convenient / fake Christian for optics. Which is why I wasn’t outraged at his image. We elected Dennis Rodman. NOT Michael Jordan.

@CatholicArena @grok He may not have said this but he lost me a while back. The messianic photo of himself and his wrong comments about the Holy Father are way off base and wrong

🚨 Donald Trump has just completely lied about Pope Leo XIV in front of the whole world After initially appearing conciliatory about Pope Leo by saying 'I'm not fighting with him', Trump then falsely claimed 'The pope made a statement, he said: 'Iran can have a Nuclear Weapon'

@yieldsearcher What’s his agenda here… Seriously.

No risk assets survive this scenario since everything is collateralized by the said Treasuries. Counterparty risk will be a thing as well. Only hedges are off-the-grid assets under physical/self custody.

@kshaughnessy2 What’s his agenda here? He’s so off the mark he has to have a motive.

The Former Treasury Secretary Who Once Needed a $700 Billion Bailout Warns of Vicious” Bond Crash “We need an emergency break-the-glass plan, which is targeted and short-term, on the shelf, so it’s ready to go when when we hit the wall,” Paulson said in an interview for Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. Paulson said a breakdown in the $31 trillion market for US government debt would be different from the financial crisis he dealt with while at the Treasury’s helm two decades ago. “As bad as it was,” the government had fiscal firepower to address the credit meltdown, he said. “You can come in and clean up the mess.” But in the event of a US public debt crisis, “when you hit the wall and you’re trying to issue Treasuries and the Fed is the only buyer and the prices of the Treasuries are going down and interest rates are up, that’s a dangerous thing.”….” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@dampedspring @AheadoftheNews What gives you the confidence that the midterms are over?

@AheadoftheNews The mid terms are over. Stop thinking that they have a chance. There is no outcome where they are better off than where they are and already in virtual gridlock

If Trump and Miran push cuts, that says they are worrried about the economy. But they aren't, it's about manufacturing a bubble before the mid-terms.

@AlexSlezak @NorthstarCharts @Angeleno551 Well put. 👌🏻

Kevin is correct it correlates to stocks. Bitcoin has never existed in the type of gold bull era. Just watch Bitcoin priced in gold. If the chart breaks out to the upside you will know we are in a new paradigm for Bitcoin. In the era where stocks outperformed gold so did bitcoin. Bitcoin priced in gold just broke down hard. I love bitcoin but you have to just look at data objectively. If it ever does decouple the charts will objectively show it.

If only $BTC were a commodity, wait...

@FoFtyTrader I’m waiting for the pullback. Whether that is after it pokes to new highs and then comes back down into the range or if we just start bleeding down from here. Either way it’s overstretched short term.

apr 2022 vibes - back then, 10 day winning streak, 11%+ rally, moving average crossovers, declining volume. today, 10 day winning streak, 10%+ rally, moving average crossovers, declining volume.

@d8tr8r @mommavestor @amitisinvesting Gas prices up 35-50% since January depending on your state. All those drivers are taking a hit on fuel prices. Also, as history has shown, all the “fuel surcharge” price increases for shipping stay. They never get rolled back. There’s no gaslighting away the increase in costs

It was pathetic. He almost completely forgot to tip her. He thought she'd actually have some benefit from the "no tax" on overtime, but he fails to comprehend that gug workers don't earn overtime pay. She was a paid operative & she still seemed creeped out by him & said she didn't give a shit about trans issues. The most bullish thing I saw was how feeble & ill he looked.

I have a take on why Trump did the impromptu DoorDash press conference with a driver today. It's actually quite obvious why he did it and quite frankly I think it's very, very bullish. So, what have we heard over the past 5 weeks from Trump? "Iran can't have a nuke. We are going through an excursion. We will blow up the country if they don't comply." The past 1.5 months have all been about the Iran War. Every truth social post, media appearance, press conference has all been about this war. Well, it looks like there may be a serious chance at a deal which would end the war based on updates we got today. So, what's the first thing Trump decides to do? Go back to the affordability narrative. The whole point of the DoorDash driver was to show the American Public that the Big Beautiful Bill is working, no tax on tips/overtime is meaningful, and reframe the narrative around how Trump is helping the working class. For the FIRST time in over a month, we got an actual PR moment that had nothing to do with the war. Why is this bullish? Because it might mean that Trump is ready to move on from the war, claim victory, and get back to focusing on the one thing that will make or break the midterms: the economy. IF Trump is able to get a 10-20year ban on Iranian enrichment AND he is able to get oil down, stocks up, jobs up, etc. then come November...his narrative will be: "I not only got you a job and cheap oil and low inflation, but I'm keeping your kid's kids safe from a nuclear Iran." Voters have a very quick memory. Most will forget about this war by November if it ends soon. If it is still continuing...then it's really hard to care about a nuclear Iran if you can't pay rent. Today's moment with that DoorDash driver showed me that it feels like Trump wants to get back to focusing on the economy, which if true, probably would be very bullish for the stock market.

@dampedspring @RZ_3_ @LynAldenContact … or this one

@RZ_3_ @LynAldenContact See the idiots you inspire with your nonsense post @LynAldenContact show some responsibility!

Stretch $STRC is now larger than all of Strategy’s other preferred stocks combined.

@dampedspring @LynAldenContact Lyn, typically reads and response to legitimate comments. This is definitely one Andy. I’ll be interested to see if it gets addressed.

@LynAldenContact $1,210,000,000 of dividends per year with zero income 16,500 BTC needs selling every year to pay the dividend It's a Ponzi scheme Lyn. You are leading your followers into ruin instead of into the coin itself

Small moves today… others need time to burn premiums of shorter dater further OTM strikes. I don’t think we would snap back up today. I was thinking by mid week. Patience.

@dimndimn @Dcpcooks 👆🏻This and more. Not everyone is paying close attention. But everyone seems to be critical and outspoken with personal opinions.

he's spoken about the trade imbalance before he was even president. stockpiling minerals specifically to combat china, tarrifs, banning huawai etc, going after cuba and now iran.. i think its fair to critique his style and approach, but he's certainly aware of china's attempts to undermine american power.

China cutting super export next month, which impacts fertilizer production China supplying Iran with key components for drone manufacturing China has been stockpiling prior to covid Russia suppling intel to Iran Russia helping to deplete US arms stockpiles with Ukraine war Sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil lifted If you don’t think this is all planned and connected to weaken America and Europe while Trumps playing checkers

@FoFtyTrader @FreightAlley He’s not a data guy. Any moron knows what’s coming. And it’s going to take months to play out.

@FreightAlley it's always different this time, but then again it wasn't in the '70s, in 2008, and so on and so forth x10... at least we can agree on one thing that is undisputedly different this time: the supply shock we are witnessing today is the largest ever in recorded history

If high oil prices were hurting the economy as much as the bears on here claim, it will be showing up in the sectors I track: transportation, retail goods, and industrials. There are ZERO signs that the war is dragging goods, but there are many signs it is driving goods.

@dampedspring @harveyrosenblum 🤣

@harveyrosenblum Dude you are in the weeds.

100% yes. Go to three far apart spots Over three weeks. Exact distance draws a circle. Three circles intersect at box. If truly exact distance should be trivial but physical search and 49 other tests and it's easy.