Gary Basin

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Gary Basin

Gary Basin

@garybasin

sonnet-level

www Katılım Ocak 2014
4.3K Takip Edilen13.1K Takipçiler
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Gary Basin
Gary Basin@garybasin·
Introducing agentboard. A fast web wrapper around tmux optimized to multiplex AI agent TUIs, w/ special support for iOS safari and mac w/ keyboard shortcuts Fun little weekend project as I've gotten sick of using tmux through Blink on my phone to get to my Claude and codex sessions on my Mac github.com/gbasin/agentbo…
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Ankit Gupta
Ankit Gupta@agupta·
deepseek just permanently priced their frontier model at 1/30th of american labs anyone know what the hardware story here is? is this huawei chips driving lower costs or model optimizations or lower margins?
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Gary Basin
Gary Basin@garybasin·
@max_spero_ Isn’t it kinda obvious? AI next word conditional probabilities are from a pretty particular distribution
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Max Spero
Max Spero@max_spero_·
If you give Pangram a random jumble of words, it should be classified as human-written. Unless, of course, an AI generated that list I have no idea why this works btw
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thebes@voooooogel

@turtlelambvase @norvid_studies @lu_sichu @max_spero_ i had the same intuition as norvid's op and my sense is random text would bias towards human because pangram is calibrating for *specific* basins of ai post-training text where human is the default / low false positives. some evidence

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Gary Basin
Gary Basin@garybasin·
@effectfully Breaks the cache but codex has already basically solved compaction afaict
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effectfully
effectfully@effectfully·
When are we gonna see garbage collection techniques applied to AI context management in mainstream tooling?
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arya
arya@AJakkli·
I really liked Eric's take on why alpha go is profound: A 10-layer network can only do 10 sequential steps of thinking, by construction. And yet those 10 steps can "amortize and approximate to very high fidelity a nearly intractable search problem."
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp

Monte Carlo Tree Search training corrects the model move by move, while current LLM training only tells it whether the whole trajectory worked. MCTS is preferable if you can get it. But nobody's managed to get MCTS to work for language models. In his blackboard lecture @ericjang11 talked to me about why:

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Roy
Roy@usr_bin_roygbiv·
@illustriousdev leaving california, roths, wyoming llcs etc. you get taxed based on vesting schedule iirc
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Roy
Roy@usr_bin_roygbiv·
watching roon slowly realize he has to leave california and yacine slowly realize he has to leave canada have been the funniest ongoing series on this website
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sanje horah
sanje horah@sanjehorah·
i dropped out of university when i was 19 because i was pulled into prison for half a year because i was doing heroin in singapore because i wanted to transgress against polite productive upper middle class society as deeply as possible. KIV if i ever decide to found a company
Adam Shuaib@adamshuaib

After 15 years of investing, we realised that truly exceptional founders have something impossible to fake: deeply unconventional lives. We analysed 15,000 founders using five binary signals to measure this: odd hobbies, early signs of exceptionalism, extreme life choices, unusual geographies, non-linear careers. These sum to give a 0-5 score per founder. Whether someone started coding at 10, speaks five languages, climbed Everest or quit a safe job to live in Chile, the signal was deviation from the mean. Rather than focusing on IQ or EQ, we call this metric the Outlier Quotient, or “OQ”. When forecasting founder success, it turns out that OQ was the single most predictive variable in our entire classification model, trained on ~70 different factors. Our OQ score had zero correlation with having worked at a top-tier company or attending an elite university. The signals most VCs rely on aren’t just noisy, they’re blinding. The best founders don’t signal like everyone else, they don’t think like everyone else, and they certainly don’t build like everyone else. If you want to spot breakout talent before the rest of the market, stop screening for conformity. Back the founders the system was built to filter out.

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kel.
kel.@kelxyz_·
Why is philanthropy so ineffective despite massive financing Like grift orgs that just slow drip themselves cash aside, there’s a ton of true orgs w huge $ but they fail to change the metagame
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Anicet
Anicet@AniC_dev·
introducing box📦 simple, powerful sandboxes for agents and the most affordable as well
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Gary Basin
Gary Basin@garybasin·
@fleetingbits These are also dual use so a US-centric manufacturer focused co would crush once they get their costs down
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FleetingBits
FleetingBits@fleetingbits·
some tentative thoughts on humanoid robotics 1) i'm not sure there is such a thing as asi for humanoid robotics, at least in a commercially valuable sense 2) once you have a robot that can take text instructions and turn them into decent management of a particular robot embodiment, you have captured most of the value 3) at that point, you can deploy it onto a production line, you can use it for unpacking and stocking shelves in a convenience store, perhaps it can be used in the home, etc... 4) at scale, like in a warehouse or on a factory floor, they can be coordinated using reasoning models, which receive telemetry and issue commands to individual robots and troubleshoot their behavior; 5) you can imagine further advances in robot operating models that create incremental value in particular industries, but the core of the value has already been captured 6) you can also imagine more general models that can operate multiple kinds of physical embodiments well, not just one; but i tend to think that this is mostly a cost improvement for operators 7) we should assume foundation models for robotics will follow a similar trend to llms, where the open source models trail the frontier by 9-24 months 8) this is true in part because there are well resourced players, like nvidia, that would train these models and have an incentive to open source them, to avoid concentration of their customer base 9) so, the companies that get the software advantage first have 9-24 months of lead time, but their models will saturate much more quickly than language model intelligence saturates 10) at that point, most of the value goes to whoever can produce the robots at scale and get them out at good gross margins, not to whoever produced the software 11) so, the winners look like the people that are good at building and running the factories and tooling them, plus the people that are good at training language models for discovery and operations that support this 12) my gut is that companies like figure and physical intelligence are on the wrong side of robotics on the long term; they are too invested in the software 13) tesla is maybe on the right side; chinese hardware companies are certainly on the right side; as these companies specialize in building at scale 14) there will also be many niche uses of robotics that both require further capability unlocks to be fully valuable and are vlm-shaped, like very small air gapped drones for war 15) but, i suspect this is not the majority of the economic value for humanoid robots and the majority of the value saturates on intelligence
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Paul Yacoubian
Paul Yacoubian@PaulYacoubian·
Turns out there are many investors out there who like financing software acquisitions for 10-20% cash interest paid quarterly 🤝
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sudarshan
sudarshan@ItzSuds·
@garybasin Uhhh you had your chance to lp sir it’s over for you now 😔
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sudarshan
sudarshan@ItzSuds·
@garybasin I don’t need them! I’m genuinely drowning in lp interest for fund 2 I’m losing my mind trying to figure out if I go institutional or family office
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sudarshan
sudarshan@ItzSuds·
I wanna start a pod but idk anyone would watch + it’s a lot of work to do for free & it doesn’t help since I already have infinite dealflow + Idk how to differentiate Tech only but I do it sporadically at my convenience & I don’t ever sell because I don’t want to work for anyone
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