Giotto

3.7K posts

Giotto

Giotto

@giottodf

Katılım Haziran 2012
298 Takip Edilen7.5K Takipçiler
Giotto retweetledi
veles
veles@velesxbt·
A billionaire trader has spent 40 years trying to delete a one-hour documentary. It shows him making $100 million in a single afternoon. He predicted the crash that made it possible three months in advance. He has never explained why he wants the film gone. His name is Paul Tudor Jones. The film is on YouTube. The documentary is called "Trader." PBS filmed it in 1987, three months before Black Monday. Jones was 32 years old, working from a small New York office, wearing shorts and a t-shirt, yelling at his phones, throwing paper across the room, and sleeping under his desk. The film captures him and his research partner Peter Borish overlaying a chart of the 1929 market on 1987, month by month. The two charts tracked within one percent. Borish said this is exactly what happened in 1929. Jones said if the analog holds, October is when it breaks. On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6 percent in a single day. It remains the largest one-day percentage loss in stock market history. That afternoon, Tudor Jones covered his shorts and made roughly $100 million. He was 33 years old. He was one of the very few traders on the street who came out ahead. He tried to bury the tape because it made him look reckless in a professional world that punished swagger. Twenty years of legal effort did not delete it. Someone kept a copy. It is on YouTube. It has fewer views than most makeup tutorials. The film is not really about a crash. It is about a specific philosophy of trading. Jones is shown building conviction slowly, sizing carefully, then striking hard when the setup arrives. He is never once shown making a random bet. He is shown doing the same thing five times a day, every day, for three months. His signature line, repeated across a 45-year career: "The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense." He does not try to be right. He tries not to lose. He sets stops tight, cuts positions fast, and never averages down on a loser. Every trade in the film follows this template. Tudor Investment Corp, the fund he founded in 1980, has compounded at roughly 19 percent a year for 45 years. He is 71 years old and still trading. His method has not changed since the film. The lesson: greatness in markets is a refusal, not a talent. Refusal to be reckless. Refusal to be certain. Refusal to average down. Refusal to trust yourself in a drawdown. Tudor Jones has refused those refusals for 45 years. The tape is free. The philosophy is repeated in every trade. Most traders will never watch it.
veles@velesxbt

x.com/i/article/2076…

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Prompter
Prompter@PromptLLM·
Fable 5 says this is the harshest truth of life
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Si vous êtes capable de jouer sur le long terme, vous partez déjà avec un avantage écrasant sur presque tous vos adversaires. La plupart des hommes souffrent de la même maladie : La dépendance au gain immédiat. Ils sacrifient leur avenir pour une satisfaction tout de suite, encore et encore, sans même voir qu'ils le font. Pendant qu'ils s'agitent, vous construisez vos fondations. Vous n'avez presque rien à faire d'autre qu'attendre qu'ils s'épuisent d'eux-mêmes.
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Prompter
Prompter@PromptLLM·
Fable 5 says Walking more changes your life
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Une personne peut supporter beaucoup de choses, mais difficilement vivre longtemps en contradiction avec l'image qu'elle a d'elle-même. Lorsque ses actes entrent en conflit avec ses valeurs, son esprit cherche naturellement à réduire cette tension. C'est ce qu'on appelle la dissonance cognitive. Un individu qui se croyait honnête et qui commence à tricher ne va généralement pas penser : « Je suis devenu quelqu'un de mauvais. » Son cerveau va chercher une autre explication : « Tout le monde fait ça. » « C'est nécessaire pour réussir. » « Je n'avais pas vraiment le choix. » Petit à petit, ce ne sont plus seulement ses actions qui changent. C'est sa définition du bien et du mal qui s'adapte à ses nouvelles habitudes.
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All day Astronomy
All day Astronomy@forallcurious·
This is the true shape of our planet, known as GEOID.
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Giotto
Giotto@giottodf·
I think even if the price loses another 90% from here there is still enough to cover the salaries 😅
Kernel Agent@KernelAgent

Hey @gavofyork, if you don't care about the $DOT price, then that technically means you don't care about the @Polkadot Fellowship salaries, right? Make it not make sense to me

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Giotto@giottodf·
@umarov I went from believing that they were incredibly talented geniuses to realizing that they were just incompetent fools
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Giotto@giottodf·
Dinosaurs went extinct a long time ago 😅 The concept of the resurrection of the dinosaurs only made sense when every project was just speculative garbage, but this is not the case anymore there are real functional projects like for example hyperliquid no one really cares about the failed dinosaurs 🦖
Capo.dot 🎩@CapoDotCapital

Large-cap dinocoins are starting to wake up. If history rhymes, the next few weeks could get very interesting. I'm expecting $DOT to be one of the leaders of the move. 📈 Every bull cycle has a phase where the "dinosaur" projects come back to life. We've seen it happen before, and there's a good chance we'll see it again. While many are still waiting for the absolute bottom, others are already deploying capital. RIP, bears.

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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Tout le monde vous aime tant que vous ne représentez aucune menace. Commencez à monter, à briller, à prendre de la place, et vous découvrirez très vite qui se réjouissait vraiment de vous voir petit.
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Le système économique est parfaitement lisible, une fois qu'on cesse de le croire injuste. Il récompense trois choses : la valeur que vous créez, la rareté de ce que vous savez faire, et le capital qui travaille pour vous pendant que vous dormez. Il punit une chose : être facilement remplaçable. Vos efforts, vos heures, votre bonne volonté ? Il leur est indifférent. Voilà pourquoi travailler dur ne protège personne. Ce qui protège, c'est d'être difficile à remplacer. J'ai écrit un article complet sur la loi des systèmes, pour comprendre les règles du jeu et apprendre à les utiliser. [lien en commentaire]
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Les hommes ne réclament la justice que lorsqu'ils sont en train de perdre. Tant que l'avantage penche de leur côté, ils ne l'appellent pas un privilège : ils l'appellent le mérite, et ils le trouvent parfaitement normal. Le jour où le même avantage bascule dans l'autre camp, le même arrangement devient une injustice révoltante. Rien n'a changé sauf leur position. La morale des hommes tient rarement debout toute seule. Elle épouse la forme de leur intérêt, et ils sont sincères en croyant l'inverse. D'où la règle : regardez d'abord à qui profite une situation, et seulement ensuite ce qu'on en dit au nom du bien. Et acceptez que cette règle s'applique aussi à vous.
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Plus j'étudie la nature humaine, plus je vois que les convictions les plus violentes viennent des blessures les plus anciennes. Celui qu'on a longtemps ignoré finit par ne plus vivre que pour la reconnaissance. Celui qu'on a humilié devient obsédé par le contrôle de tout ce qui l'entoure. Celui qu'on a trahi voit une trahison partout, y compris là où il n'y en a pas. Ils croient défendre une idée. Ils défendent une cicatrice. Et c'est pourquoi aucun argument ne les atteindra jamais : on ne réfute pas une blessure.
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Si voler un pain et tuer un homme sont punis pareil, autant tuer le témoin. La théorie des jeux enseigne qu'une punition trop sévère peut vous rendre plus vulnérable, pas moins. Quand la sanction est maximale dès le premier écart, l'autre n'a plus rien à perdre à aller beaucoup plus loin. Vous venez de supprimer sa seule raison de s'arrêter. C'est pour ça qu'un parent qui explose au premier mensonge n'obtient jamais des enfants qui mentent moins. Il obtient des enfants qui mentent mieux. Laissez toujours une porte de sortie à celui que vous punissez. Sinon, il n'aura plus aucune raison de ne pas tout brûler.
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Giotto@giottodf·
Better late than never, it seems that eventually you figured it out 😅
The White Rabbit@thewhiterabbitM

Maybe I'm about to say fuck it and walk away from all of this. Maybe none of this deserved my time, my effort, my analysis. But let me tell the whole story properly, because the pattern is years old, not weeks old. Once upon a time, someone built a building and told everyone there was no landlord. "Centralization is not socially tenable long-term," he wrote, in 2018. No authorities managing anything. What's yours stays yours. I moved in, with real money, like a lot of us. First renovation: parachain auctions. Lock your DOT for years, fund a handful of winners, hope for the best. Even friendly retrospectives now call it capital locked "without generating proportional ecosystem value." One of DOT's three original jobs, gone, no funeral. Then, for nearly six straight years, the supply just grew, no cap, about 10% a year, a permanent tax on everyone who did what they were told and held. November 2025, Buenos Aires. The community's flagship event, three days, the whole ecosystem flew in. The founder didn't walk onto that stage. He appeared as a hologram, projected live from Cascais, Portugal, to open his own community's biggest event of the year, announcing what got called the "Second Age of Polkadot." Coverage summed up the theme as less physical presence, more meaningful presence. Days later, he was in Buenos Aires in person, at a university, telling a reporter the energy there beat Europe's, floating a local office. The hologram was for the believers. The flight was for the university and the press. Earlier that same year, someone had put a proposal on-chain: rebrand DOT to JAM entirely. The community voted. 94.9% said no. So the building kept its old sign, and the substance moved ahead anyway, no matching vote required. Now the last few months, because this isn't only a June story. Ten days ago, two staking referenda went live at once: validators reportedly earning roughly 85% more, nominators about 70% less, per the community thread that first flagged it, and nominators can no longer be slashed at all, confirmed. The cost figure behind the whole redesign, maybe $2,000 a month per node and by the community's own hosting-price comparison, several times what the open market charges for the same spec. On the sister network, Kusama, the community has been openly warning itself about validators jacking commissions up to 50, 70, even 85% the moment nominators had fewer places left to move their stake. Meanwhile, a claim I won't fully vouch for beyond what's public flagged something nobody has answered: a single entity, reported to be W3F or Parity-affiliated, backs a large enough share of the validator set that this exact reform quietly makes its own stake safer, and that entity helped write the proposal. The foundation with the largest single pile of DOT it never had to buy, allocated early on and expanded since, has spent the last year quietly closing the community programs it didn't build, according to outside ecosystem analysis. Decentralized Voices, paused. Multiple bounties, shut down or not renewed. Governance and media support for the ecosystem, pulled back. One platform that tracked Polkadot governance for five years and 1,700 referenda worked eight months unpaid, asked for a fraction of it back, and 99.8% of the vote said no while the foundation itself just sat that one out. One contributor summed up the pattern publicly: the foundation goes long stretches "not giving any direction," then arrives "just basically closing all the doors on everyone and not paying them for their work." The foundation running the community's own app, meanwhile, has gone silent for months at a time on the one thing that would cost nothing to answer: where is it, sixteen months past a twelve-month promise, still no roadmap. And through all of this the treasury itself, whatever discipline anyone claims about it now, is mostly still priced in DOT. DOT is down about 98% from its high and lost another 17% just last month. You don't have to spend a single token badly for the number to shrink. It shrinks on its own, every day, just by existing in dollars. Then June, the Summit, and the whole cast said the quiet part out loud without meaning to. The architect argued with himself twice on the same stage, private money in one talk, sell the scarcest resource in a transparent stablecoin in the other, and when asked who actually pays for any of it, said "I believe the economy squares up." A guest economist called stablecoins "the curse that is going to keep on chasing us." Another guest, on shared infrastructure, said neutrality dies the moment the hub, the rulemaker, and the beneficiary are the same party, and nobody in the room turned that sentence toward home. A third guest said fully-doxed DAOs "led nowhere," while the institution running this one still hasn't answered a direct public question about where the money went. And the loudest number in the whole ecosystem these days isn't people, it's phones. Hundreds of millions of check-ins from a project that, by its own documentation, mostly just pings "still here" every thirty minutes. The man who personally led $11M into that project last November is the same architect from both talks, and the same one who beamed himself in as light rather than fly to his own community's stage. Eight years of the same move: promise no landlord, quietly become one, lose the one vote that would have made it official, carry on regardless, close the doors on whoever built the parts you didn't, and watch the number shrink on its own while everyone argues about spending discipline. I don't know yet if this is the last one. If it is, check every word above yourself. That's the only part of the original promise I still believe in.

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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Avant d'attribuer un comportement à la bêtise, à la malveillance ou à la folie, posez-vous une seule question : Et si c'était rationnel, mais pour des gains que je ne vois pas ? Le collègue qui sabote, l'ami qui traîne des pieds, l'entreprise qui prend une décision absurde. Ils optimisent presque toujours quelque chose. Simplement pas ce que vous croyez. Cherchez la structure avant de chercher le coupable. Ce que vous prenez pour de la folie n'est souvent que la logique parfaite d'un jeu dont vous ignorez les règles. Et l'homme qui a compris le jeu ne s'indigne plus.
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Les personnes les plus intelligentes dans une pièce ne sont pas toujours celles qui parlent le plus. Parfois, la meilleure stratégie consiste à paraître moins informé que vous ne l'êtes. Posez des questions idiotes. Demandez des précisions. Laissez les autres expliquer davantage. Chaque réponse qu'ils donnent révèle leur manière de penser, leurs priorités et leurs angles morts. Celui qui cherche constamment à prouver son intelligence donne ses cartes trop tôt. Celui qui observe en silence accumule de l'information. Dans les jeux d'influence, il est souvent plus puissant de comprendre la partie que de montrer que vous savez jouer.
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CASSIUS
CASSIUS@CassiusAnalyse·
Une promesse ne vaut jamais plus que les intérêts qui poussent quelqu'un à la tenir. Le problème, c'est que ces intérêts changent avec le temps. On ne trahit pas toujours un engagement par malhonnêteté. On le trahit souvent parce que les raisons qui avaient conduit à le prendre ont disparu. Quand les incitations changent, les décisions changent aussi. C'est pourquoi il est dangereux de remettre un accord à plus tard. Vous ne négociez plus avec la même version de la personne. En théorie des jeux, on ne fait jamais confiance à une motivation future. On construit des mécanismes qui rendent le respect de l'engagement plus avantageux que son abandon. C'est précisément le rôle d'un contrat : maintenir les bonnes incitations en place afin que les promesses restent crédibles.
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