Macrotrends

@vx_shark @MacroAlf Hang on a minute we just had a generational opportunity 2 years ago, those kids grow fast!

@MacroAlf So you mean we are going to get yet another "generational" buying opportunity ?

Ladies and gentlemen, if you look under the hood this was NOT a friendly inflationary report for the Fed and markets. I'd argue it actually increases the probability the Fed will have to go with a non-linear, more aggressive hawkish rhetoric to slow down inflation. 1/7

@MichaelGoodwell Bulls are too bullish and bears are too bearish

The macro environment of a tightening Fed is unchanged. Can equities sustain today's rally?

What do people think of the doomsday scenario whereby the highs we saw late last year will not be seen for 10-15 years?

@DKellerCMT sentiment can always get more bearish. maybe you are bearish and then your neighboring country invades you. inevitably you get more bearish.

AAII Survey yesterday revealed some of the most bearish sentiment in history! Almost 60% bulls and 16% bears means the largest bearish spread since 2009. $SPX $SPY

@willywoo It doesn't really matter who is buying what and at which price. If equities tank, BTC will tank with them. If not, then it might rally.

#Bitcoin price is sideways because of Wall St is selling futures contract in a macro risk-off trade. Meanwhile institutional money is scooping spot BTC at peak rates and moving to cold storage. It's times like these I remember the Q4 2020 supply shock squeeze.

@Coinman0071 @caprioleio Lots of people were buying at 6500 but it did fall 50% from there.

@caprioleio Who's says that they are on right side of the trade? Majority is always wrong. I'd say they are they majority now in this market and also the reason why it's not going down as fast. Disclaimer: just thinking out loud. I know nothing.

Whales are accumulating as much Bitcoin today as they were at the $3K lows. These are holders with approx. $40M - $400M in their wallets today. In 2018, that was $4M - 40M (but there were no "institutions" then either).

@SuburbanDrone Did you see how Chinese indexes pump today during the Wall Street Dump? in the last bounce the PBOC mid-March the PBOC injected and soon removed $150 billion USD of liquidity. They are doing pumps n dumps with their central bank.

Slowly at first, then "Aw fuck, not this again!!!"

@Ni95057388G @mikealfred @krugermacro I do not believe they will. They are both liquidity-driven.

@gravbetyc @mikealfred @krugermacro Right now that’s true….but they will decouple. Better be ready!

Bitcoin is outperforming the Nasdaq in a bear market. This is beyond impressive. $NQ -22% YTD $BTC -17% YTD

@lukescryptolab @simpfluencerX @krugermacro BTC always tops out before stocks, you get rid of the riskier asset first.

@simpfluencerX @krugermacro I like this thinking, the timing is fairly close when comparing both markets. The key is that even though Nasdaq rallied to all time highs in November and December 2021, BTC got rekt at the same time. So really BTC performed much weaker if you just include those 2 months.

@simpfluencerX @krugermacro what's next? -44% > -84%?

@krugermacro Isn't measuring from YTD a bit misleading? If you measure from top: $NQ -22% $BTC -42%

@krugermacro Has outperformed *so far*

Many incredibly triggered by this post. $BTC is a very high beta asset highly correlated to the Nasdaq and follows the Nasdaq in all time frames. The fact that $BTC has outperformed YTD -or since Jan/6 when the Fed went all out and risk assets started to crash- is impressive.

@mikealfred @krugermacro Do they not? Just watch the price action when the NASDAQ is open. They move in tandem.

@krugermacro It's because they actually have almost nothing to do with each other.

@TallSeller @crossbordercap @gnoble79 @johnauthers @JackFarley96 I believe he is calling for a 30% drop in equities, unless we have a recession in which case 50% or a depression 70%.

@crossbordercap @gnoble79 @johnauthers @JackFarley96 …I mean 50% of that 20% correction.

Another bad day on #WallStreet ...watching the #Fed matters, but please look at the right thing @gnoble79 @johnauthers @JackFarley96

@crossbordercap @gnoble79 @johnauthers @JackFarley96 Really curious to see how the Fed would react to a steep market drop if and when it comes.

@DTAPCAP @TeddyVallee @RaoulGMI @TommyThornton @LynAldenContact The core reason we will be above those highs is that quarterly GDP growth turned negative as soon as the Fed stopped bond purchases, almost to the minute.

@gravbetyc Before it's all over we will be significantly above those '00 highs. By the way, well done on this chart. Luv this one. @TeddyVallee @RaoulGMI @TommyThornton @LynAldenContact

Last time #FederalReserve tightened after negative real #GDP was 1982! Very unlikely Fed tightens as much as mkt prices. Monetary conditions tightened with #dollar up, #Oil up, #mortgagerates up, #equity/assets down. Softer data now bullish equity/#BTC cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-…

@DTAPCAP Seems to me the lessons post-2000 and post-2008 for the Fed were that prolonged equity drawdowns only worsen and deepen the recession. No equity growth, no economic growth. Those who are skeptical of Bitcoin's correlation with equities fail to see the big picture.

@gravbetyc If equity drop another 15%, Fed will be easing before yr end.

@MoSalespunk @MacroAlf And this would continue even if stocks drop 70% in a depression? What is the point of buying stocks if returns are negative? And how will pensions be paid without returns?

@gravbetyc @MacroAlf Because their mandate is to be invested. Target date funds, SPY, QQQ all have to be fully invested all the time. Price doesn’t matter. Rebalancing is just selling the winners and buying the losers to maintain appropriate exposure.

It's month-end and large institutional accounts are rebalancing: it's important to distinguish noise from signal. As stocks had suffered a large drawdown in April, portfolio rebalancing means equity inflows now (Goldman estimated $9bn from pension funds only).

@rccalhoun @MacroAlf I'm curious why the can't short?

@gravbetyc @MacroAlf what else are they going to buy? bonds? or go into cash. they cant short.