Hossein Alidaee

669 posts

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Hossein Alidaee

Hossein Alidaee

@halidaee

Economics postdoc researching info frictions + ext validity in technology adoption at @HarvardHBS. PhD @NorthwesternU. All opinions are wrong, some are useful.

Katılım Kasım 2008
159 Takip Edilen184 Takipçiler
Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@thsottiaux Lack of support for dynamic creation of swarms. (i.e. in claude code you can have a prompt where you say 'this is my project, come up with personalities of 5 different relevant agents who will debate with each other until they converge on how to best do this').
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Tibo
Tibo@thsottiaux·
What are we obviously not getting right with Codex?
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Anup Malani
Anup Malani@anup_malani·
cc @rglenner @DavidEvansPhD — if heterogeneous returns explain most of the adoption gap, what's the expected value of extension programs that assume the problem is farmer ignorance? Suri's 2011 result still feels underweighted in program design.
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Anup Malani
Anup Malani@anup_malani·
A puzzle in development economics: researchers estimate a new technology has positive returns, yet farmers don't adopt. Sometimes the issue isn't the farmers — it's the limits of the research.
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@RefineDotInk Have a project this is kind of perfect for (added an extra firm worth of data to a dataset and had to redo analysis, including changing some metrics). But it's potentially a bit too draft-y as a result 😂 Not released yet, but happy to offer.
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Refine
Refine@RefineDotInk·
If you have working papers that are not too polished and you're willing to let Refine use them as demonstrations on its examples page, let us know - we'll give you 3 free full reviews as a token of appreciation. Please DM or reply.
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John Horton
John Horton@johnjhorton·
I asked Claude Code to use Lean to formalize the proofs in an applied theory paper & it gave me a really long effort estimate. I said I was surprised & asked for an explanation. Claude then turned the knife - no time for your baby math, economist!
John Horton tweet media
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
Does anyone know whether anthropic models are getting quantized everywhere or just when used via Anthropic? e.g. if I use AWS, do I avoid this issue?
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Hossein Alidaee retweetledi
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Free markets are the best way to create wealth AND reduce poverty ever discovered. One of the big puzzles of history is how the same lesson has to be learned again and again. Poland, China, India, and now Argentina are the latest experiments. Argentina with Milei: - Poverty down: 53% to 28%. - Inflation down: 200% to 33% (and continuing to fall - Growth up to: 4.4% last year. - Govt surplus: first in 123 years. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@EconBerger @EconstratPB Disagree. I think if they had done this unilaterally under a different administration, there would have been much stronger action against them. We're currently seeing global compliance because Trump burned those bridges.
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
@EconstratPB An alternate take is that Iran always had the implicit upper hand here and this war just made that explicit
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EconstratPB
EconstratPB@EconstratPB·
Trump got his taco. At the price of Hormuz. Prior to this stupidity, Hormuz was an open waterway for commerce, with open sea lanes guaranteed by the 5th fleet. That is no more. Trump has ceded control of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy choke point, to Iran.
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@GautiEggertsson Fair point. Though I will say based on descent experience: I saved a lot of time still by making an itemized, shorthand list of issues from reading manuscript myself and then feeding the AI my past referee reports so it writes like my final reports.
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Gauti Eggertsson 🇺🇦
Gauti Eggertsson 🇺🇦@GautiEggertsson·
PSA for economists: Beware ChatGPT/Claude for refereeing papers. AI is not good at judging taste or forming reasonable judgement about the importance of results. It’s a bad idea to use as a basis for decision making in refereeing. People who use these tools a lot know this but I wanted to make it more concrete. I did the following experiment. I asked for the optimal prompt to revise an intro for “top 5”, then followed the prompts and went down the rabbit hole of revisions suggested and did a gazillion rounds ending up with something. It was hypercautious, full of hedges, had no flair — and dull as dishwater. But I anticipated that; this was not the experiment. Instead: I went to a fresh version of the same AI (different account) and asked it to judge between the two intros. It judged the original pre-revision far superior. I then asked the AI-2 why its own cloned version, AI-1 did such a horrible job. Answer: Good for: catching logical gaps in proofs, checking whether an argument is internally consistent, identifying missing citations, flagging where a reader might get lost in the formal machinery, rubber-ducking a tricky modeling choice. Bad for: deciding what the paper is about, judging which analogies work, assessing voice, knowing when informality is doing real work, anything that requires taste rather than pattern matching. Ultimate paradox: Was AI-1 or AI-2 right? Both were 100% confident in their judgement and man-splained them to me in great detail😂
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@danielrock @JorgeGuzmanCBS Be careful and verify though. I notice that it often doesn't fully implement all of the plan. But then if I have another agent check for what wasn't completed and complete those pieces, it can hallucinate and do things it isn't supposed to. Audit is key
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Daniel Rock
Daniel Rock@danielrock·
@JorgeGuzmanCBS If you spec out the data cleaning have it write a repeatable pipeline that’s well documented for you. Then you’re good!
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Jorge Guzman
Jorge Guzman@JorgeGuzmanCBS·
reviewes / opinions on getting claude code involved on the data cleaning piece? Feels high value but also worry about difficult-to-audit mistakes.
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@ben_golub I'm a man of the people and accept matrices in all shapes and sizes. Long live singular values.
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Ryan Briggs
Ryan Briggs@ryancbriggs·
This is a very tempting takeaway, but under selection on significance we absolutely can have entire literatures be durably wrong over time. We saw this with ego depletion in psych. Hundreds of papers over more than a decade appear to have all been chasing noise.
Rudi Bachmann@BachmannRudi

I think the answer to this problem is that we need to educate the users of our results better. The simple rule has to be: never base any policy decision (or even debate) on one single paper (outside of a fast-paced crisis situation), but only on an entire literature.

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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@rohanvarma Background is one answer. But also, e.g. I'm forced to API pricing on enterprise account, so this would be very helpful when I'm multitasking / doing multiple sessions and can afford the extra time. e.g. currently reading a PR from another session; don't need speedy response!
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Rohan Varma
Rohan Varma@TheRohanVarma·
If we made /slow mode in Codex, would you use it? What for? (Slower inference at a cheaper cost)
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@btshapir My dissertation was about impoverished South Asian farmers. My mother, who knows this, is still convinced I'm keeping great stock tips from her.
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@ben_golub @alexolegimas @JesusFerna7026 Argument in your favor I think goes in same way as my issues with the SFFA vs Harvard lawsuit. At the end of the day, their goal was self-defeating because ultimately the kids *want* to go to a school with the elite, not just picked on grades. (Otherwise they'd go to Berkeley.)
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
@Afinetheorem Yeah though I do think there is a very potentially real equilibrium whereby you *pay* for the chance to do an entry level role in white collar fields. We would strongly differentiate between those two but I'm not sure the average person would consider that a much better outcome.
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Peter Ganong
Peter Ganong@p_ganong·
Agentic AI q: --You write code which replicates or builds on a paper. --You want to give the LLM the paper PDF to reference as needed. --You don't want to burn your whole context window. Help! How do you do it?
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Hossein Alidaee
Hossein Alidaee@halidaee·
If (a) $200/month claude plan actually subsidizes $5k/month in equivalent API usage (b) we expect a rug pull with model prices going up, this really changes predictions about labor impact. Compared to $60k/year just on token usage, firms may keep lots of knowledge workers around.
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