Henry

@RihardJarc Strong agree on GCP and TPUs AMZN tranium is trash

The market is still underestimating the importance and value of both $GOOGL TPUs business and $AMZN Trainium. Both of those standalone ASIC businesses would be worth close to 10% of each company's market cap. Just the additional +3.5GW Anthropic deal for $GOOGL TPUs means that $GOOGL will earn around $50B of high-margin TPU IP revenue from this deal alone (the rest going to $AVGO). AWS and GCP are in a strong long-term position because of their ASIC businesses, which will allow them to achieve better margins, lower costs to serve tokens, and avoid the $NVDA 75% gross margin tax in many cases.

@TMTLongShort @narmacnetworth Bro ur actually retarded, somehow every single decision Trump makes is so perfect it always benefits us, yields are up, oil is up but ur gonna glaze the admin no matter what lol

Reminder: many middle-income and lower-income countries heavily subsidize consumer fuel prices as a form of preventing dissent. For example the Arab Spring. This means that elevated oil prices for an extended duration directly drives a sovereign liquidity crises. Guess who is the primary provider of dollar liquidity.

@blueprintsmb22 Why would low quality/rez vol rip if everyone is running a tight low gross book? Would assume a competent PM would hedge out these factors (ex be balanced on long and short side on low quality etc)

My remaining hedge fund / buyside network are portfolio managers at the pods. Even though the Market is down less than 5 pct year to date (remarkable considering everything going on), not one is running gross. Most are down and playing not to lose. No tilts, trying to be as paired up as possible just not to bleed anymore. No one is positioned for a rip up. Probably means low quality and res vol are going to absolutely go vertical when this Iran conflict is over. Most hiding in large cap quality which means they are more positioned for a continued bleed down. I’m sure others know people crushing it and laughing all the way to the bank, but this is what I’m hearing. Hoping they figure it out - seems super challenging right now. I know manufacturing is an irrelevant industry with respect to the weighting in the stock market, but still is crazy to me how it resilient it is while I am personally navigating probably the most stressful raw material spike in the plastic bag industry ever. Phone calls with 70+ year old plus owners in my industry this week have scared me more than the doomers on fintwit talking about $200 oil. Some of them are worried they won’t survive, and they are 2nd or 3rd generation owners with zero debt. 👀 What a time to be alive!

@aashaysanghvi_ I have been thinking about this for 2 years now haha

Who do I know in NYC who's thoughtful about the second-order effects of accelerating token consumption (data centers, materials, chips, energy, etc.)? Who is the most Aschenbrenner-pilled?

@Sleepysolcap Would AMZN be hit even harder, given they get hit from demand side but also COGS will be pressured upwards given fulfillment and delivery costs

@cap_zay Sorry that’s my bad, forgot to pay my bills last month and also did a couple of chargebacks, should be cleared up by next week

Why is $AXP being dumped so violently?

@patrick_oshag This guy is an idiot 🤡 Imagine not understanding the values of the hyperscaler business, if the only value is the GPUs then why doesn’t everyone use CRWV or smth These business have an application and infra layer on top with partnerships, not just gpus stuck in the ground

Dan on why hyperscalers will be a worse business model over time even as growth accelerates: "AWS, Azure, GCP are going to accelerate for a while just because their customer base -- Anthropic, OpenAI -- are growing at an enormous pace. The problem is you went from a dynamic where their customer base was like every corporation in the world and therefore they had fragmentation and it was a really good business. Going forward it's highly unlikely that LLMs are not concentrated in the hands of 4 or 5 companies. Those companies right now, are cashflow negative, and therefore they're looking for compute anywhere they can get it. In the next 5 to 10 years, they'll be generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. When that happens, they're likely to insource the compute. Right now, they look at the hyperscalers as more of a financing mechanism. But I don't think they are better than the LLMs at building data centers. Then you have this dynamic of neoclouds. I don't think they're going away like people thought, because they're better at running GPU clusters than the traditional hyperscalers, and there's a lot of interest from NVIDIA to make sure that their customer base is diversified."

@ACapitalLP Probably infra SW

@blueprintsmb22 For sure googl Everything is working for them, search accelerating, gcp accelerating with huge backlog, TPUs development and production advancing at record speed

If FCF estimates start going up from here, which hyperscaler (AMZN, META, MSFT, GOOGL) rips the most? Generally you want to own the highest beta, most beat up one in an industry re rating trade but AMZN has retail and MSFT has “scary” software exposure so curious what pple think.

@TMTLongShort Ahh I see thanks! anything interesting you would point out u learned from these videos

@henryF015 They aren’t. But they are additive and that implies Street isn’t sufficiently focused on trying to figure out probabilities that scaling laws are holding.

Both under 2k views. Both out for 2+ days.

@JonahLupton Do u think investors r that stupid that they can’t back out a divesture? That’s not why the stock is down….

Another very strong earnings print by $APP... 2025 Q4 revs of $1.658B, up 66% YoY 2025 Q4 ebitda of $1.399B, up 82% YoY I think the confusion is around 2026 Q1 guidance because if you look at 2025 Q1 numbers it included the gaming business which they sold off last year. If you take $325M revs and $62M ebitda out of the 2025 Q1 numbers then $APP guidance for 2026 Q1 looks like this... 2026 Q1 revs guidance of $1.775B, up 53.1% YoY 2026 Q1 ebitda guidance of $1.495B, up 58.5% YoY After seeing 2026 Q1 guidance, I'm confident that $APP does at least $6.9B ebitda in CY2026 which means $APP (at the AH lows) was trading at 20x CY2026 EV/EBITDA

@MarioGabelli Bro why r u clogging up my timeline with nonsense like this

U.S. Earnings Expected: Monday, February 9

@lokoyacap What r ur numbers for AWS growth, I think 27 will be big but not that much upside from 26

For the “least transparent” hyperscaler, $amzn discloses nearly everything you need to model AWS with decent precision over the next several qtrs: total capex, capex qq, GWs added qq (TBD if they keep disclosing this), revs added qq per $ of capex and per GW added, etc. And then they gave you tgt capacity by end of 2027. It’s inherently imprecise but they’ve provided a lot of information here that has many scenarios generating quite a bit above street aws revs for 2027 in particular.

@ContrarianCurse Terminal risk of AI displacement*

@ContrarianCurse I disagree, I think that terminal value of AI will continue to weigh on these SW multiples throughout the year

In software into earnings.. great option prices 30-40% OTM 5-6m out. For some of these, if they can demonstrate any signs of life of acceleration, they will fucking RIP against where positioning is

@FundamentEdge Strong agree with Buffett, Cohen and Druck! Would add in Peter Lynch in there too!

My Mount Rushmore of stock pickers My litmus test: - Trigger pulling authority on individual, fundamentally-researched stocks (i.e. rules out Ken G, Jim Simons & the quants) - Permanently changed stock picking at the highest level of capital allocation Buffett: business quality & long duration compounding Robertson: winners/losers & research edge Cohen: idea velocity & alpha machine Druck: macro-aware stock picking & regime awareness) Agree/disagree? See arguments for Peter Lynch & Phil Fisher... My 12 year old got a brokerage account for his recent birthday so I'm putting together some materials on "Getting Started in Stocks"...I'll share it here when done (a nights and weekends project so who knows when...) (Nano Banana experimentations...pretty cool)

@blueprintsmb22 Yeah weird, will do and lyk if I find anything, my first thought on things like this is option strikes/comp structures (hence the reason why SHOP has terrible 4Q earnings day seasonality)

@henryF015 No idea lol. I would just do your own work as I’m sure you do but it is remarkable the stark difference in performance in odd vs even years (2004 was the IPO so would ignore that even year)

I remember Brent Thill coming in for a marketing meeting when I was on the buyside and he pitched never to own GOOGL during even years. He was kind of joking/not joking... x.com/InvestingVisua…

@HighyieldHarry Hey I’m one of their bondholders, they didn’t make a payment and have entered their 30 day grace period

Saks interest payment was due yesterday, anyone know if they paid it?