Tom Hinn

65 posts

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Tom Hinn

Tom Hinn

@hinntom

entrepreneur tech, AI, prediction markets enthusiast, researching @Polymarket

Katılım Mart 2026
90 Takip Edilen19 Takipçiler
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
If we look at Polymarket not as gambling but as a market through a trader's eyes - we can classify every way to make money on the platform and break it into groups. There are 5 of them. Each has real edge, and each has risk (don't trust anyone who says otherwise). Let’s break them down.
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Breezy 4L
Breezy 4L@breezyjpg·
Today, LP rookie (me) is back in the game with $67.39 earned from providing liquidity on Polymarket It may not be much to others, but to me, 1 day of limit orders beating the prev 3 weeks feels different My road to the top 1% of all LPs continues: find low-volatility markets, provide liquidity, get rewards Not too much but it's honest work
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Breezy 4L@breezyjpg

Today I started providing liquidity on Polymarket again and made $4.28 in less than 24 hours I know it's just 1 Big Mac, but thanks to small steps like this, I'm almost at $600 in LP Rewards Even though I'm still an LP rookie, placing limit orders in markets you know well = extra profit Not too much but it's enough to eat

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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
Get top 10% in LP rewards on Polymarket. I was waiting for yesterday’s ghost fills fix. Tested it last night - the order books are much more stable now.
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0xDinosaur
0xDinosaur@0xDinoCrypto·
What do you think is the best money-making opportunity right now?
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@lynk0x this is because some people do gamble, not trading
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lynk
lynk@lynk0x·
Trading will never be a respectable profession. Lose money in a restaurant, startup or any other business and people will say, "These things happen." Lose money in the stock market and you're a gambler.
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@trump66worldxyz @claudeai @world_xyz It's better not to use AI predictions for this purpose, as the price will almost always be already worked out, so you will be in the red over a long period of time
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Percival Tran
Percival Tran@trump66worldxyz·
I just let @claudeai browse prediction markets with a crypto wallet. It's weirder than you think. 3 prompts. That's all it took. First: "How to use @world_xyz connector?" Second: "What markets are good right now?" Third: "Which one has the best odds?" And just like that, Claude was ranking World Cup matches by on-chain volume, breaking down implied odds, and ready to execute a bet through my wallet. Claude doesn't have my private key. Neither does the World connector. When I want to actually place a bet, a signing window pops up in the chat. I sign with my passkey. That's it. The AI can read markets, analyze odds, suggest positions, but it can't move a dollar without my fingerprint. Prediction markets have always had a UX problem. Too many tabs. Too much friction between research and execution. You find an edge, you open the DApp, you check the odds, you connect the wallet, you approve the token, you place the trade, the edge is gone. Claude + World connector collapses all of that into one conversation. "Show me the best odds." "Bet $50 on Belgium." 2 sentences. Done.
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Cryptosem
Cryptosem@sem101031·
The @Polymarket has paid out $35.73M in real USDC to LPs. Only 151k wallets have earned $1+ from it. 2.5 million wallets are farming volume. The gap is the alpha. Everyone grinding the wrong metric. LP isn't a side quest. Its infrastructure. Polymarket has no market makers, no B2B liquidity desks like Bet365 or Betfair. The entire order book is built by retail LPs. Kill LP incentives and spreads blow out overnight. The team can't afford that. Leaderboard math doesn't lie - Top 10% → $40+ Top 1% → $1,428+ Top 1,000 → $2,367+ This isn't nice to have anymore. Its becoming a core ranking metric while wash traders in the 97¢–$3 range bleed out and contribute nothing real. Volume is easy to fake. Liquidity is not. Wash trading floods the platform with fake activity. LP requires actual capital sitting exposed, tightening spreads for real. The team knows exactly which wallets are propping up the platform. $15B company valuation. Token FDVs at launch typically land minimum 50-60% + of that. $10B minimum realistic $POLY FDV range and maximum $POLY FDV is approximately 20-30B Every dollar you farm in LP right now is getting priced against that multiple later. Bottom line if you are still grinding pure volume for the airdrop, you are optimizing for the metric about to matter least. 151k wallets already figured this out. The other 2.35M are about to find out the hard way. Reallocate to resting limit orders. LP is the flywheel. #Polymarket
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Deep
Deep@Deepppeth·
Am I the only one who's in the red across Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and All Time on @Polymarket ?
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@Autonomous_Chad 100% true - especially for large players who are already looking at prediction markets as a way to hedge risk. What’s holding them back right now is limited liquidity, questionable resolutions, and regulatory risk.
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Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
The Trillion dollar usecase for Prediction Makerts is not gambling. It's Parametric Insurance. gambling is a small market ($600B), investors did not value Polymarket and Kalshi at $20B each because they hope to capture the gambling market. The real big fish they are chasing is the insurance market ($8T). They are betting of a future where event contracts replace the traditional Indemnity Insurance model In the indemnity insurance model has 3 major flaws : 1 - Does not scale An adjuster must inspect every claim, assess the damages and if it is covered or not. This incurs additional costs that will in the end be paid by the consumer. If these costs are greater than the expected profit for a given category, there simply won't be an insurance market for it. 2 - Slow If your house burned to the ground, you need the money now, not in 6 months. Good luck explaining that to the adjuster that will want every receipt for every piece of furniture in your living room 3 - Adversarial The insurance provider who has every incentive to deny your claim since the payout comes out of their pocket. Unfortunately the judge (the adjuster) also works for them, and will find every reason to deny you a payout There are already a few categories where Parametric insurance (event contracts) is already the dominant option : - Fire insurance - Extreme weather events - Political risk (for example if a bill gets passed that would ruin your business) - War insurance (try to find a traditional company that will insure your house in Donetsk or Tehran) @Polymarket and @Kalshi investors are betting that this market will keep expanding and that they will be the ones to capture it It's the real play behind Prediction Markets. Of course there is still regulatory risk, but that was also the case for Bitcoin in 2013. Risk = Profit Take some risks and find a way to invest in Prediction Markets before everyone realizes what is up
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ZEIT@ZEITFinance

x.com/i/article/2074…

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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@austiinxbt @Polymarket Yeah, you really can’t trust the Polymarket UI at all. Not what you see, and not even which buttons you clicked. Better to use bots
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awestin.eth
awestin.eth@austiinxbt·
Don't use Polymarket's UI to LP 🚨 3 months ago I lost $3,411 due to a UI "glitch" now, I lost another $130 because of a similar glitch... Here's what happened 👇 > I opened limit orders on the S&P 500 market > after LP'ing, I cancelled all orders & made sure all orders were cancelled multiple times > later in the evening I even checked on my open positions & could see not a single one was open > in the morning, I have 3,500 shares bought in the market even though all my orders were closed... > good thing I ended up buying both sides, only lost $130 but could have been worse I love Polymarket but how do these UI issues keep happening? hopefully the team works on this over the next few updates & still have my ticket open for the $3,411 I lost 3 months ago 😂 My favourite option to LP now is via API as it is less prone to Polymarket UI issues I personally use @StandDOTtrade to LP now
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@bryantheden the airdrop distribution is unlikely to depend only on your profit
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Bryant
Bryant@bryantheden·
A polymarket dev just asked twitter who builds the best tokenomic models and everyone read the signal backwards The timeline screams $POLY imminent, but no team publicly recruits an economic architect weeks before their tge, this is confirmation the design is unfinished, snapshot can land after the world cup final, distribution realistically waits for q4 While you wait, run the math nobody farming wants to see, hyperliquid split 1.2 billion across just 94 thousand traders, thirty grand average per wallet, that is the fantasy being sold Polymarket carries 1.35 million actives, pour the same pool over that crowd and the mean payout shrivels to a few hundred bucks, a 14x bigger divisor priced into nothing It gets worse, wsj data shows 0.1 percent of accounts captured 67 of all platform profits, weighted allocations funnel straight to those whales, and uniswap's 6.43 billion or arbitrum's 1.97 never had a million farmers splitting the check One bright spot hides in the breadcrumbs though, the same dev answered soon when asked about staking poly for taker fee discounts, real utility is in the blueprint, ice already valued the company at 9 billion with revenue past 1b annualized So decode it honestly, the pie is genuine but your slice is not, are you positioned like the 0.1 percent or funding their allocation while chasing a date that was never q3
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Bryant@bryantheden

Will $POLY finally ship in q3 because every box the team drew is now ticked, polymarket just crossed 1 billion in annualized revenue six weeks after its us app went public, the trademark filed february 4 points at this half, and the snapshot stays untaken with a world cup ending july 19 as the perfect sybil filter Follow the liquidity inside that same venue and the hottest contract right now is not even sports, traders are pricing where hyperliquid lands by december, 58 percent of the money says hype clears 90 after tagging a fresh 76 high in june Machines are next in line for that order flow, ai agents already custody their own wallets since no bank will kyc a bot, a sector projected to swell from 7.8 billion to 52b by 2030 while researchers warn a self replicating agent holding funds has no real off switch Every one of those bots rents intelligence from somewhere, which is the whole bet under bittensor, tao sits at 217, still 71 percent beneath its peak, yet up 4 this week with 256 subnets selling machine smarts for actual usage fees And once software earns and settles on its own, the endgame is money that moves unseen, monero holds above 329 with zcash near 338 even as exchanges keep purging the pair, a sector that refuses to die One loop, a venue prints fees and maybe a token after the final whistle, bots trade it, networks feed them, private rails close the circuit, so which layer are you long before q3 decides

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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@shafu0x Agentic commerce is the future - but not only in the way everyone is thinking about it. Agents won’t just spend money online. They’ll earn it too.
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shafu
shafu@shafu0x·
My thoughts on Agentic Commerce - agents will obviously spend billions online - AI + crypto finally make sense - online first becomes agent first - we are seeing exponential growth - Stripe/Robinhood/Cloudflare are getting into it - APIs are the first clear use-case - uniquely enabled by stablecoins - people trust agents more and more - usage based pricing is just better - every agent will need a wallet - x402/mpp kill API keys - agent identity is still unsolved - AgentCash solved discovery - everyone is building for agents now - your agent can buy flights, domains, flowers - if you are in crypto pivot to agentic commerce - AX (agent experience) comes before UX - still super early Dm me if you want to see the future
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Ash
Ash@ashgang51·
This is just marketing or they will launch Poly before 2028 ? @Polymarket
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@deepugami @shayne_coplan Most likely, this is bait around the latest rumors - a way to show people they’re actively working in that direction and that we won’t have to wait until 2028. Their tokenomics has probably been ready for a long time.
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@DextersSolab His strategy isn’t really arbitrage - it looks more like market making. And he’s definitely getting live sports stats
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Dexter's Lab
Dexter's Lab@DextersSolab·
This trader makes: > $297,000 per day > $701,466 per week > $1,579,984 per month > $10,932,597 per year His secret? The simplest arbitrage. His bot detects markets where YES + NO < $1 at the order book. It happens every time because of simple mispricings. Over and over thousands of times. And live sports are printing best because of time lags. His bot runs on private RPC node which gives him a huge edge. Pure automation and millions in clean profit. His wallet: [@rn1?via=dexter-molu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@rn1?via=dexte…] His bot was NOT built in 5 mins. But principles behind it bots were explained years ago. One formula prints generational wealth, just imagine.
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Tom Hinn
Tom Hinn@hinntom·
@SolMoeSports They’ll need to somehow keep attention and volumes alive after the World Cup. I doubt they’ll launch it right away, but it’s very possible they’ll reveal some info.
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Sheikh Silicon
Sheikh Silicon@SheikhSilicon·
I think it’s a strong idea to buy a few shares of google and openai on @Polymarket market link: polymarket.com/event/which-co… anthropic has been leading this ai race for the last 6 months, but google and openai are still the giants both are expected to push new models this month and nobody really knows how strong they be yet thats why this looks like a decent spot to size in early if the new launches land well there could be room for a 10% ~ 30% profit right now the odds for both look low on the july market so i’m planning to take 100 shares of google and 100 shares of openai let’s see what happens dyor, nfa
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