Matt Horrocks
360 posts
Matt Horrocks
@horrocksmatt
Head of Research, Headland
Katılım Mayıs 2010
181 Takip Edilen127 Takipçiler
Actually it wasn't Poulter's defection, because UK parl website still shows him as one of 346 Tory MPs; 15% of 346 =51.9 members.parliament.uk/parties/commons
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Poulter defection cuts no of Tory MPs needed to trigger vote of confidence in leader from 53 to 52 – @Steven_Swinford thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-r…
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@jamesdmorris I'm not saying it's >50%, or anywhere close! Just exploring how fat that tail is
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@PodTooFar @RobDotHutton @DuncanWeldon Pleasingly, it's actually on Sunday afternoon telly this weekend (3pm, Channel 4)
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NEW EPISODE! @RobDotHutton and @DuncanWeldon have been dropped into Yugoslavia on a secret mission not even they understand. Yes, it's Force 10 From Navarone!
Is this the war movie that killed war movies? And what did Harrison Ford make of it all? listen.podmasters.uk/APodTooFarS2E5…
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@horrocksmatt @ftukpolitics Yes and different... and they have some of their own issues.
So we just don't know what is right
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The UK’s ‘official’ labour data is becoming a nonsense on.ft.com/3QuIPWP
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@ChrisGiles_ @ftukpolitics And the other data sources are useless for levels?
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@horrocksmatt @ftukpolitics It's a levels vs changes thing. What ONS did yesterday was the best possible on changes (use other data which you believe more), but the problem now is that the levels are quite possibly wrong and that matters
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@jamesdmorris First time for everything. The "not elected" point was a surprise. I wonder how widespread that criticism is
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@jamesdmorris That's interesting about Manchester vs wider North. Comes to your point about media coverage I guess. One shouldn't re-fight the last election, but it was such a feature of that campaign, and HS2 is emblematic of abandoning that. Your points matter more tho
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@horrocksmatt I agree there is potentially an additional ‘abandoning the north’ risk; but my sense is that this is narrowly framed as being about Manchester, and anyway regional identity is massively less important to voting than competence/strength so functionally it doesn’t matter much.
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Just 3% of people say transport is one of the main issues facing the UK, so polling on whether people support or oppose HS2 is about as politically informative as polling on whether they like cheese. What matters: (1/2)
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@jamesdmorris What about regional effects? Expressive of (not) caring about north vs south etc.
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1) Does scrapping it look:
- tough or weak
- competent or incompetent
2) Do those views change after people see the likely media coverage?
(Most have paid this no mind, so views are pliable)
3) Nothing else
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@KarimPalant Glad you enjoyed it Karim, thanks for coming. And I'm sorry that I didn't come up with a chart like this back in the days of the Eds!
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@JohnRentoul @Samfr @JMagosh @BNHWalker @drjennings I think @markpack 's polls database has all the Gallup best on economy data. Rather, I'm certain it does for 92-97 because I was checking it the other day
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@Samfr @JMagosh @BNHWalker @drjennings There may be some leadership satisfaction questions here; I don’t remember “managing the economy” docs.google.com/document/d/16Q…
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@ChrisGiles_ @Samfr @resfoundation If you can wait two weeks, we're publishing some polling data on exactly this point
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@Samfr @resfoundation It is right in nee jobs assumption.
Key is not labour supply but whether society thinks it is better to redistribute to families with young children or to help older rich workers
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At the @resfoundation
It is critical of Budget pension changes. £80,000 per job.
It is supportive of childcare changes.
The same calculation technique (RF didn’t highlight) is that this costs £86,000 per job
Maybe these calculations aren’t as revealing as people think…
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@PodTooFar You should do a running tally of how many of the films you cover feature Anthony Quayle
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@ChrisSalt29 @HeadlandComms @vocechoir @StJohnsSmithSq Thanks Chris! Under the excellent direction of @JamesHenshaw89 as well
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A privilege to hear of @HeadlandComms folk ex-work hinterland. Making a glorious noise, with fellow singers from @vocechoir, #OutcryEnsemble and Academy of English Voices @StJohnsSmithSq is our Head of Research @horrocksmatt - Braham’s Requiem
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@mcleodp With a high number of DKs and different houses' approach to handling them, I'm thinking that could account for a big chunk of the difference. But I'm just speculating
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@horrocksmatt Does that explain why such a big spread now specifically tho?
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This is true. Obvs the most politically salient fact is that at absolute minimum the Lab lead is bigger than the 1997 result, but ppl in polling industry will be v curious about why/how we're seeing such a range.
Ash McGregor 🙏 🇺🇦@ashmcgregor
I know Labour folk are a bit giddy about polls at the moment, but we seem to have a cluster of Labour leads at around +20pc and another at around +30pc. That’s a MASSIVE spread and they can’t both be right
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@RobDotHutton This will be a story you will tell your great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great great grandchildren
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