Tom Wright

23.1K posts

Tom Wright

Tom Wright

@thomaswright08

Senior Fellow @BrookingsFP. contributing writer @TheAtlantic, Formerly Biden NSC, Author of All Measures Short of War, co-author of Aftershocks. Views my own.

Washington DC Katılım Haziran 2008
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Tom Wright
Tom Wright@thomaswright08·
After almost 3 years, today was my last day at the NSC. Nice to end w/ POTUS’s FP speech. I was v fortunate to work w/ an incredible group of public servants. Thank you @JakeSullivan46 for his leadership. Wishing the next team all the best as they navigate a challenging world.
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Amy Mackinnon
Amy Mackinnon@ak_mack·
👇Insightful breakdown of this year’s annual threat assessment from ODNI which is more dovish than the last.
Tom Wright@thomaswright08

Long thread. I’ve gone through ODNI’s 2026 annual threat assessment (ATA) and compared it to 2025. Some thoughts: BLUF: The 2026 ATA generally plays down threats compared to 2025. It still covers its bases but the language in key areas is shorter and diluted, there’s more focus on US advantage, and more support for Trump’s policies. 1/13

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Shashank Joshi
Shashank Joshi@shashj·
@thomaswright08 I agree on that broader shift. Saw your analysis of shift in language. Just referring to 2027 specifically.
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Shashank Joshi
Shashank Joshi@shashj·
I don't think the new ODNI assessment on Taiwan is much of a "shift", as suggested here. US never thought 2027 was a deadline, but a date by which Xi wanted the PLA to be ready. Not did it think PRC wanted to use force over other means. wsj.com/world/china/ch…
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Brookings Foreign Policy
Brookings Foreign Policy@BrookingsFP·
"Trump launched the war because he believed that Iran was weak and that he could quickly win. Many wars start that way. Few end as expected. Now, just over two weeks in, the window for declaring victory is closing," writes @thomaswright08 in @TheAtlantic: brook.gs/4uMpALF
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Tom Wright
Tom Wright@thomaswright08·
@joshrogin I thought that's what I said but okay. The missiles they are developing would be able to hit the US. I guess they could be trying to reach Canada or Mexico.
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Josh Rogin
Josh Rogin@joshrogin·
@thomaswright08 No. It says Pakistan is developing missiles this would have the capability to reach the US. It doesn’t say they are developing missiles to strike the U.S. Huge difference.
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Tom Wright
Tom Wright@thomaswright08·
ODNI's Annual Threat Assessment confirms that Pakistan is developing missiles to strike the US with nuclear weapons (i.e. ICBMs). This is the first time, to my knowledge, that the Trump admin has said this (the Biden admin had declassified it in Dec 2024). See pages 10 and 11 of the ATA dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
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Tom Wright
Tom Wright@thomaswright08·
Some other items: there’s lots on migration/ cartels/ etc; the 2026 ATA acknowledges that Pakistan is pursuing ICBMs to target America; it has a AI section for the first time but it’s very thin; it does have this curious line emphasizing how important it is to make sure humans remain in control of AI machines; and it reconfirms Russia’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon in space that could threaten civilian satellites. 12/13
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Tom Wright
Tom Wright@thomaswright08·
Long thread. I’ve gone through ODNI’s 2026 annual threat assessment (ATA) and compared it to 2025. Some thoughts: BLUF: The 2026 ATA generally plays down threats compared to 2025. It still covers its bases but the language in key areas is shorter and diluted, there’s more focus on US advantage, and more support for Trump’s policies. 1/13
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@shashj @TheAtlantic @joshrogin @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates