irene callanta

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

@aleabitoreddit @thgstar2 Any updated thoughts on $SMTOY now — 4 months later. China ban still impacting them hard , or are they still a viable alternative. Ty.

That’s what’s so incredibly alarming, that the Western AI buildout might be held at choke point by an obscure $700m company like $AXTI and $SMTOY. InP substrates were incredibly niche for telecom, but it’s suddenly a national security emergency as it became the material used for the world’s lasers and optional interconnects. I’m not quite sure the top level vendors realized this or at least didn’t realize the scale of this issue (eg. Signing agreements with $LITE without going deeper into the material suppliers for Lite), as the supply chain is incredibly becoming choke pointed by two companies. Google’s TPU v7 ramp for example placed an unprecedented strain/dependency on the InP supply chain that simply didn't exist a few months ago, since they use OCS for their chip pods, which is almost all in on photonics. As we’ve hit the upper limits with copper, the AI industry's reliance on AXTI is essentially a "single point of failure” on some small cap that supplies the materials for everything. I’m not looking at revenue numbers here, this dependency is just absurd, the 1.6T networking just breaks. I’m not sure where companies go from here, I’m sure they’ll try and hoard materials or secure multi-year agreements but either way two companies hold all the cards.

At 36, Takato Ishida becomes Japan’s youngest governor… and his looks are stealing the spotlight. 🔥

Follow the leading stocks: Market Leaders $SNDK SanDisk +385.78% $BE Bloom Energy +220.77% $STX Seagate +157.80% $LITE Lumentum +150.39% $WDC Western Digital +143.67% $CIEN Ciena +121.85% $NOK Nokia +101.52% $FIX Comfort Systems +98.96% $ENLT Enlight Renewable Energy +94.73% $VRT Vertiv Holdings +93.73% $MRVL Marvell Technology +90.17% $ASX ASE +89.39% $ARM Arm Holdings +87.07% $MU Micron +83.72% $UI Ubiquiti +81.98% $GLW Corning +78.02% $NBIS Nebius +77.60% $Q Qnity +75.46% Next-Gen Leaders $AAOI Applied Optoelectronics +404.65% $MXL MaxLinear +332.87% $ICHR Ichor +235.70% $VIAV VIAVI Solutions +206.54% $FSLY Fastly +171.73% $POWL Powell Industries +154.94% $AMPX Amprius +146.69% $VICR Vicor +140.90% $FORM FormFactor +137.63% $CDNL Cardinal Infrastructure +128.07% $AGX Argan +119.71% $DOCN DigitalOcean +111.39% $ADEA Adeia +90.42% $GNRC Generac +87.95% $PL Planet Labs +85.80% $VSAT Viasat +85.63% Speculative Leaders $AXTI AXT Inc +458.14% $LWLG Lightwave Logic +400.62% $AEHR Aehr Test Systems +342.77% $SATL Satellogic +270.10% $XNDU Xanadu Quantum +261.20% $OPTX Syntec Optics +197.24% $SPIR Spire Global +137.65% $NVTS Navitas Semi +132.67% $UAMY United States Antimony +131.43% $USAR USA Rare Earth +114.41% $BKSY BlackSky Technology +85.16% $WULF TeraWulf +81.98% $FCEL FuelCell Energy +77.41% $CRML Critical Metals +75.21%

Voici un panier d'une vingtaine d'actions que je regarde systématiquement en ce moment : 1. $AAOI - Optical infrastructure play. Si la demande en bande passante pour les data centers AI continue d’exploser, les composants optiques restent importants. 2. $MXL - Petit semi avec exposition data centers, connectivité et possible optionalité AI infrastructure. 3. $VECO - Exposition aux équipements semi, surtout autour des matériaux avancés, compound semis et photonics manufacturing. 4. $AXTI - Play upstream photonics/materials. Les substrats peuvent devenir un bottleneck si la demande optique continue d’augmenter. Un des meilleurs long de l'année. 5. $IQE - Un des fournisseurs occidentaux d’epi-wafers les plus intéressants. Très risqué, mais potentiellement critique plus upstream dans les supply chains photonics. 6. $RPI - Raspberry Pi pourrait bénéficier si les agents AI locaux, OpenClaw/Picoclaw et les déploiements edge low-cost deviennent un vrai moteur de demande. Au vue de l'augmentation du compute dut à l'agentic et l'explosion des Mac Mini, play ultra smart en AI Local. 7. $EXA- Drones sous marins, souveraineté FR sous la mer. EXAIL a été largement repriced récemment mais reste un narratif de dingue. 8. $ALKAL - Kalray est intéressant comme play européen sur edge AI / data processing infrastructure. Très spéculatif, mais cohérent avec le thème AI compute. L'exposition aux DPU et à la souveraineté européenne en fait un acteur inratable. 9. $ALRIB - Riber donne une exposition aux équipements MBE, importants pour compound semis, photonics et matériaux avancés. Deal avec $MSFT potentiel. 10. $AMD - Une des principales alternatives à Nvidia sur GPUs, CPUs et AI compute hyperscaler. L'agentic est entrain re-rate la demande en CPU, ça tombe bien, AMD fait les deux et même des DPU. 11. $SK Hynix - La mémoire reste un des bottlenecks les plus évidents de l’AI infrastructure, surtout avec la demande HBM. 11 bis. $SK Square - Holding coréenne avec une exposition importante à SK Hynix. Pertinent comme manière indirecte de jouer la demande HBM, mémoire AI et le re-rating potentiel de l’écosystème semi coréen. 12. $SNDK - Exposition storage / NAND. Si la création de données liée à l’AI continue d’exploser, le stockage reste structurellement important. 13. $ROBOTIS - Nom coréen exposé à la robotique et à l’automation. Si le thème robotics continue de se diffuser globalement ça pourrait continuer à grimper fort, surtout après l'ouverture aux capitaux US/EU 14. $VPG - Exposition capteurs pour robotique, automation et systèmes industriels. Pas évident, mais potentiellement important si le physical AI se développe. 15. $GOOGL - Gemini, YouTube, TPUs, Waymo, cloud et énorme operating income pour financer l’AI buildout. Pour moi vrai capteur de la rentabilité de l'IA et la plus à même de la rentabiliser. 16. $QBTS - Exposition quantum computing. Très spéculatif, mais fait partie des noms publics surveillés quand le thème quantum revient. 17. $INFQ - Infleqtion donne une exposition quantum via neutral atom computing, sensing et timing. Risqué, mais intéressant comme nouveau nom public du secteur. 18. $STMPA - Exposition européenne aux semiconducteurs via automotive, industrial, power et embedded chips. Retournement haussier poussée par l'exposition à la photonique silicium avec les PIC100. 19. $NVTS - Exposition power semis / GaN. Si AI, EVs, data centers et efficacité énergétique restent des thèmes clés, ce secteur reste intéressant. 20. $NBIS - Nom AI cloud / infrastructure. Risqué, mais potentiellement un des plays non-megacap les plus intéressants sur la demande AI compute. 21. $COHR - Play photonics/optical infrastructure plus établi. Intéressant si les data centers AI continuent d’augmenter leurs besoins en transceivers, lasers et composants optiques. 22. $LITE - Exposition directe à l’optical cycle, notamment via lasers, photonics et potentielle supply chain TPU/hyperscaler. Plus clean que les moonshots upstream décrit précedemment. 23. $2CRSI - Petit play français sur serveurs haute performance / AI infrastructure. Très spéculatif, mais intéressant si la demande européenne pour compute, HPC et data centers continue d’accélérer. Tout n'est pas à acheter aujourd'hui, faites vos recherches.

Tom Lee stated that we will have “one of the best 18-24 month periods we have seen in our life”

Goldman just put a number on the AI buildout: $7.6T from 2026-2031. They explicitly flag optics as the next “buy out the store” chokepoint after memory. The numbers behind the thesis: +Compute alone is $5.1T of the $7.6T total +Annual AI capex grows from $765B in 2026 to $1.6T in 2031 +Data center cost per MW jumped from $10M (cloud era) to $15-20M (AI era) +A single $50K accelerator depreciates $10K/yr but goes economically obsolete faster than the schedule +NVIDIA’s GB300 NVL72 packs 72 processors per rack, linked by hundreds of thousands of km of cabling In the repot they state: similar episodes of intense, short-term pricing pressure are likely to recur across other critical components such as interconnect, optics, storage, and packaging.” Meaning the same dynamic that just sent memory parabolic is queued up across the entire physical layer of AI infrastructure. The “AI factory of the future” data center will pack 576 GPUs per rack at 500+ kW, requiring liquid-only cooling and millions of GPUs deployed at the >1 GW scale. None of that scales without optics. Memory just ran (still going). Photonics is just warming up. Full disclosure: Goldman is confirming what’s been playing since the late last year. A lot is already priced in. The alpha is front-running institutions, not reading their reports. But $7.6T over 6 years doesn’t get fully priced in 6 months. Plenty of runaway left.

There's a lot of discussion around "CPO supply chains" and what's the most undervalued. Let me put my opinion out there: The laser chokepoint ( $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR ) is by far the best exposure to photonics and CPO. Because there's so much optionality that gave companies like Lumentum the premiums. With: -> downstream IP TAM expansion as seen with pluggable optical transceivers -> vertical integration of InP laser fabs rather than fabless. -> vertical integration of multiple processes eg. testing or even assembly. Treat it like you're running your own company and speedrunning it to $100B or $300B. Not just spreadsheet modeling off projected revenue/margins.

@TheGreekEuler I personally think $SIVE should be $3B today and ends up $10B+ next year. Earnings don’t really matter. Just care about indication from management about laser volume ramp for both CPO programs / $JBL and likely $AAPL silicon photonics program.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks again Serenity! Do you ever sleep?

Honestly not too bad? Cool to see markets validate my thesis posts… With $SOI (silicon photonic substrates) to $LPK (glass core substrates) going in a straight line up .

@KeenanPeachy Who is sleeping in that bed? Kim K?

!!!! This is the single best piece of political persuasion ever made about California. AMERICA LOVES SPENCER PRATT! Must watch:

In this article, I focus on optical testing, especially CPO test. I define five key bottlenecks across the test flow and evaluate 14 related companies using my own six factor investment framework. I also share how I would think about these companies under different CPO adoption scenarios, as well as my own view on the most likely CPO test scenario. If you are considering investing in optical testing, I highly recommend reading this article.

@Meatusmax Maybe here's what I'd do personally: "High Upside Rockets": 1. $SIVE 2. MSSCorp 3. PCL 4. $AAOI Compounders: 1. Shunsin 2. Sumitomo 3. Furukawa 4. $COHR 5. $LITE

AI infra structure & different phases The bottleneck map for investing

This is exactly what I told you would happen. S&P 500 just hit $7,230, a new all-time high. Amid the worst geopolitical crisis of the century. Oil is at $125. The Strait of Hormuz is blockaded. The US is already preparing for the next round of war escalation. Nothing has been solved. No real objectives have been achieved. The escalation is only getting worse. And the market is rallying into it. I’ve seen this before. When equities rally during an unresolved energy shock, the drop that follows isn’t slow. It’s vertical. For the record, I’ve predicted all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the exact Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Just 1 year ago: $AXTI was $1 $LITE was $50 $COHR was $55 $SIVE was $3 $ONDS was $1 $OSS was $2 $SNDK was $30 $AAOI was $10 $NBIS was $20 $BE was $18 What stock is gonna be next?

I genuinely believe any pull back in $DRAM is a buying opportunity, the chart says over extended but the fundamentals scream supply and demand short squeeze