irmants

1.9K posts

irmants banner
irmants

irmants

@irmants

Lithuania Katılım Mart 2010
2.6K Takip Edilen173 Takipçiler
irmants
irmants@irmants·
Lesson for next year: Polymarket traders were noticeably sharper. The money on PM was better informed. Arbitrage looks easy until the sharp money shows who really knows.#Eurovision
English
0
0
0
3
irmants
irmants@irmants·
Interesting observation from Eurovision betting this year: Found solid arbitrage ops between Betfair and Polymarket throughout the contest. But after the dust settled, my Polymarket account ended up in the red… while Betfair was nicely in the green....
English
1
0
0
3
irmants
irmants@irmants·
Betting against Finland was so obvious bet this season that it looked to perfect to bet on. From start felt that they can't win but but layed only small positions when it was @ 3-5. Any way great season betting wise , thanks to people here who suggested that bulgaria can win.
English
0
0
0
13
irmants
irmants@irmants·
@Cbb0fe Started from bookies bonuses too, good times
English
0
0
0
477
CBB
CBB@Cbb0fe·
Having nothing and being young is actually an interesting spot. Any small win can significantly improve your life and give you the appetite for more. As a broke student, I was constantly looking for small “glitches” to exploit. In industries like banking or sports betting, new companies often offer absurd incentives to gain market share. In France, an online bank used to pay €160–240 per referral if someone opened an account. First I did it for myself. Then I offered to do it for friends and family for a 50% cut (people are lazy so they won't do themselves). That’s how I made my first €2k. After that, I moved on to sports betting signup bonuses and managing an Airbnb property.
Salami.hype@0salamirvkp

@Cbb0fe how i lock in , I am basically starting from zero I have nothing to my name

English
54
17
643
119.5K
Tim B
Tim B@Reality_Tim·
Trying to figure out who is beating Finland in the televote. Obviously Greece and Israel will, and Moldova might, but is there anything else that could? Maybe Ukraine or Italy if everything goes right for them? #Eurovision
English
15
0
18
5.3K
Eurovision News
Eurovision News@EurovisionNewZ·
🇩🇰📹 Watch Denmark’s second rehearsal 30 seconds rehearsal clip
English
66
77
835
125.1K
irmants
irmants@irmants·
Yeah @polymarket h2h betting and semi final 1,2 winners would be great too.
Villu Veedla@VVeedla

@Polymarket could we please get more Eurovision 2026 markets. Betfair has had eg for a long time Top Balkan, Top Big Four. These would be good. Could we also get ‘what is gonna be the winning score’ market?

English
0
0
3
59
irmants retweetledi
Villu Veedla
Villu Veedla@VVeedla·
@Polymarket could we please get more Eurovision 2026 markets. Betfair has had eg for a long time Top Balkan, Top Big Four. These would be good. Could we also get ‘what is gonna be the winning score’ market?
English
5
1
7
2K
irmants
irmants@irmants·
@mat_rickard was not that active in betting 2015. GTY was favorite to win at any point?
English
2
0
2
69
Matt Rickard
Matt Rickard@mat_rickard·
Spoke about this on the last pod and Gav has absolutely articulated my thoughts. Better than me tbf. But I used GTY as the reference for the coldness and lack of connection and the point stands. Add to that, GTY made sense as a vignette. Liekinheiten has no such sophistication.
Gavin Bets@ESCtips_Gavster

Returning to ‘Liekinheitin’, and picking up on the comparison raised on the @TalkAboutESC podcast with Goodbye to Yesterday (GTY), it actually feels like a really useful reference point. Not because the songs are similar, but because they highlight the same kind of staging issue. With GTY, Elina and Stig told a very clear story. It was an argument, played out through distance between them, and it ended in a breakup. You could follow it easily, but that was also the limitation. There was no coming back together, no shift in emotion, no real catharsis. It just slammed the door. It always felt like a strong entry, but not quite a winning one because it kept everyone at arm’s length. Liekinheitin runs into a similar problem, but in a more uncomfortable way. It is not just distant, it is actively hostile at times. Pete takes over a minute to even look at the camera, and when he finally does, it is not inviting, it is a hard, almost aggressive stare. That delay really matters, because viewers are given very little to connect with early on. Then you have Linda, who should perhaps bring some contrast or light into the performance, but instead adds to the intensity in a way that feels quite dark. The way she is shot and lit, especially under those red strobes, gives off a slightly witch like impression, as if she has Pete under some kind of spell. As the performance builds, that feeling only gets stronger. Linda pacing down the catwalk with the fire effects behind her, scowling into the camera, does not come across a uplifting - it leans into something more malevolent. When Pete appears trapped in the burning window frame, looking desperate, and then disappears as the camera circles it, the imagery becomes quite unsettling. By the end, with Pete almost shouting toward Linda against those pulsing red lights, there is a lot of energy, but it is all negative and lacking a call to action. This is where the comparison to GTY really clicks. GTY showed an argument and a breakup in a clear, contained way. Liekinheitin also shows conflict, but without explaining what it is or what the relationship between the two performers actually is. In both cases, there is no release, no moment where emotion can shift, no catharsis. And that is the key issue. #Eurovision winners almost always give you something to hold onto by the end, whether it is connection, hope, or triumph. With Liekinheitin, you are left with intensity, but also hostility. Instead of drawing the audience in, it risks pushing them away to vote for a song with an easier and more compelling hook.

English
1
0
12
714
irmants retweetledi
CDbjerg Betting
CDbjerg Betting@CDbjerg·
🚨Giveaway🚨 Two lucky ones can win a spot in my VIP Music🎵 worth 99 Euro + a month in VIP Premium. (35 Euro) Like, retweet & write “🔥” in comments. At least 30 like, rtw & comments or else only one winner. Closing Sunday at 21.00 cet. #Eurovision #Betdk #Betting
CDbjerg Betting@CDbjerg

What a season start in VIP Music🤑🤑🤑 83 bets✅ 296.8 u plus ✅👀 ROI 190.5%✅👀 Overall: 372 bets 658.7 u plus✅👀 ROI 142.3✅👀 Eurovision season starts now, hurry up if you want a spot📝 Its fun, its party💰 #Eurovision #Betting #Eurovision2026 #Betdk

English
20
20
34
5.2K
irmants
irmants@irmants·
@SchlagerKaty @euroepiphanies @OMaunoury @VVeedla Yup metoo is so important for a non fan, who hearing all those songs first time. Definitely more important than catchy melody/words. Your'e a fan thats fine, I hope you are not betting money on this :)
English
0
0
1
61
Katja / ☮️🕊️ 🇫🇮❤️
You did not just compare Liekinheitin to fucking RUNNING SCARED, come on now… 🫠😵‍💫🫥
Villu Veedla@VVeedla

I guess in a weaker year 🇺🇦 and 🇮🇱 type of entries could be dangerous for a fluke win - base/diaspora/issue vote matter much more than music itself then and overrides the music/performance-driven votes mostly. 🇫🇮 and 🇩🇰 are classical fanwanks (even more obv than 🇫🇮 and 🇫🇷 last year). Very strange to see their odds if you look it from outside of the bubble perspective. How are these two favorites in a more Balkan/East-driven year by any logic? Yes, 🇫🇮 has quite strong impression but there’s not much motivation to vote. As I mentioned earlier, we’ve seen also in Sanremo and Eesti Laul recently how this type of acts end up underperforming. There’s a lack of motivation to vote, even if it looks a standout. Kind of similar vibe to KAJ last year I guess - can be popular in Nordics and Baltics but more of a fan and Nordic bubble. Slightly weaker version of “Running Scared”. Could end up in top5 but top3 odds feel value lay rn. Are 🇩🇰 odds driven by possible Greenland war? I don’t really get where the could the votes even come for it otherwise, to be even part of the winner outright conversation? 🇫🇷 has potential and should have easily higher ceiling and appeal than their last year’s entry. She has also some X-Factor and it could play pretty nicely on the cultural stereotype card. I wanna see first how it comes together on the stage tho, I feel there’s a risk of it feeling too messy and all over the place.

English
5
0
36
5.4K
irmants
irmants@irmants·
@VVeedla Agree on finland/denmark take, but disagree on greece, and that sweden girl's mask don't add any mystery but just some bad memories from covid :)
English
1
0
0
757
Villu Veedla
Villu Veedla@VVeedla·
Eurovision 2026: My first review. I’ve been catching up with songs in the past week and although I haven’t watched fully everyone, I’ve seen at least the favorites pack. Here are my initial impressions, without country by country projections, or final show watching exercise.
English
10
1
36
5.2K
irmants
irmants@irmants·
@chuckbasspoker Moldova for top 10, maybe top 5? Charismatic and fun entry , catchy song.
English
0
0
0
119
chuckbasspoker
chuckbasspoker@chuckbasspoker·
I’m mostly in wait and see mode until the rehearsals. So far I’ve been backing 🇬🇷🇫🇷🇺🇦 and laying 🇫🇮: 🇫🇷 Only song that feels like a potential juggernaut on both sides of the scoreboard 🇬🇷 Never fade ”the character” 🇺🇦 Highest risk/reward 🇫🇮 No way this is ~38% Have fun!
English
4
0
8
1.5K
chuckbasspoker
chuckbasspoker@chuckbasspoker·
🇫🇷 France 6.6 Most competitive French entry since Pravi. Would be a weird winner (3rd ”opera” vibes winner in a row?), but this is the most complete package so far and should not be discounted. The usual suspects underrating it feels like a good sign. Gun to my head, 2nd-3rd.
English
1
0
6
1.8K