Itô
39 posts
@itomarkets
The risk transfer layer for AI compute | Rent fixed-rate GPU capacity on 30/90/180-day terms | Backed by @alliance
This is such an underrated view. It feels inevitable to me that non-expiring indices that can capture "directional" moves in one "basket of reality" will end up dominating prediction markets. It is generally hard for an average consumer to roll event contracts into expressing a long term view that "AI Progress will accelerate". But if you have an "AI Progress" index, that is significantly more intuitive to hold and manage.
husband couldn’t sleep last night because he had nightmares about how “inference markets will be an order of magnitude larger than anything we’ve ever seen before”
If we’re pointing at track record / pedigree x Execution x Thesis, I would recommend looking into these teams - @pumpcade - @itomarkets - @DaedalusRsch - @functionspaceHQ - @Polysights - @ForecastFDN - @gondorfi Some target similar problems but are sufficiently differentiated. First three are especially going for something more OOTB. NB: Friends with several of them so I am biased
one of the hardest unsolved problems in prediction markets: turning them into insurance, yield, or lending products when the underlying risk is fundamentally idiosyncratic the primitive is powerful but the risk profile is what makes it nearly impossible to financialize with existing frameworks
a few weeks ago @itomarkets made a nice repo for visualizing PM data. Made a fork with, you guessed it, @Kalshi data Thanks @absurdistphil and @affaan for the initial build. The 3D globe looks awesome. Daily refresh + will bundle with all of the other releases kalshiverse.com
Today, I'm launching the Eternal Atlas (atlaseternal.xyz). The Atlas is a catalogue of assets and institutions that cannot be replaced by AI and will compound both culturally and economically for years to come. Permanence is the rarest asset class.
