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volmaru
20.1K posts
volmaru
@jace48
Computo Ergo Sum. (Capital market is my hobby). BG image courtesy https://t.co/WxJPT6qqxZ
Katılım Ekim 2009
553 Takip Edilen3.3K Takipçiler
volmaru retweetledi
If you use markov chain models to lose money, it feels more effortful and satisfying. The goal in the stock market is not to make money. That's not possible. The goal should be to lose money in a way that makes you feel like you did something.
Livsun@L1vsun
a citadel quant told me something that broke my entire trading framework "we don't predict markets. we model the state machine" he explained markov chains in 90 seconds the market is never random - it always exists in one of three states trending up, trending down, ranging - each has a fixed probability of shifting to another build the transition matrix from real price data: > trending up -> 68% stays trending, 21% flips to range, 11% reverses > ranging -> 54% stays range, 28% breaks up, 18% breaks down > trending down -> 61% stays falling, 24% flips to range, 15% reverses now you're not guessing, you're playing probability identify current state, enter with the 68% edge, size with kelly criterion based on that probability the formula is public - markov published it in 1906 hedge funds use it, the math costs nothing what costs you is asking the wrong question "where is price going?" is random "what state am I in right now?" has an answer transition matrix built from 10 years of data is your edge Bookmark it not a signal, not an indicator - just conditional probability that compounds every single trade
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Was there no state celebration of the 1st anniversary of Operation Sindoor? I mean that's the playbook, right? We normally have a grand celebration of such events.
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@prathgodbole @RahulChels Toll to Toll i.e Telagaon to Khalapur approx 50 mins with connecting link.
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@RahulChels Whats the actual reduction in travel time?
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volmaru retweetledi
@nitin_twit @dbytesmith Hybrid. Most in city usage works on battery so effective Mileage you get is around 35+ ish. Regular Highway use you get same as Petrol vehicle.
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@dbytesmith EV in india abhi mature nahi hai..so no EV. Petrol mein ganna juice milake sab barbad kar diye hain...so only option left is Diesel. Isme I will rate Kia Seltos good for its interior and overall vfm.
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Bhai log, ek genuine sawaal 😄
Liya kya jaye
Kia Seltos Top Variant 🚗
Ya phir Creta 2027 ka wait kiya jaaye? 👀
Specially long-term owners, highway runners, family guys, and petrolheads, drop your brutally honest takes.
No fanboyism. Real ownership experience only. 🤝
P.S.: urgency zero hai.
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@AshishGupta325 @gurjota Petrol /Disel tax se, that is most predictable source of money to government
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You want ₹ to stabilize.
You want $ to come to India.
• Remove STT
• Remove LTCG
• Reduce STCG
And watch billions of $ flow into India.
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@darpunn @LeverageAlpha_ it will hold up in bootstrap , not because bootstrap is faulty but it cannot see input outside of what is provided . So input == Biased bootstrap will confirm this as biased.
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@LeverageAlpha_ ngl a lot of these look like overfitting the backtest
It's choosing very specific decision boundaries based on only historical data you can ask it to bootstrap data or run monte carlo sims to see if these really hold up
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@VivekVRao1 What do you think about developing a sense for fundamental factors first, and only then using quant models to then trade using algorithms?
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I've known stock analysts who are always digging into the details of the companies and industries they cover. They plug those details into a spreadsheet or even just a mental model of how much their stocks should be worth. So the mathematical methods and software they use is simple, but for the good ones, the range of inputs they use is vast and often changing. Quants look at a broader range of companies or at trading at a higher frequency, so the inputs they use are more standardized, and they focus on the details of execution, data quality, and algorithms.
What kind of analyst to be, fundamental or quantitative, depends on what details you find more interesting and are talented at handling.
experquisite@experquisite
Quant trading is just digging into the details of every little god damned thing, every day, until you die
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@TanmayKurtkoti The vantage point of study is different from actual expectation/experience of investor, case in point Peter lynch who had lot of a stocks in his holding. Although it fair to accept that mindless diversification and/or concentration do not help.
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Evans and Archer ran the foundational study in 1968. Statman refreshed it in 1987. The curve has held up across markets and decades
Five stocks gets you to roughly 50 percent of the diversification benefit available in equities. Fifteen gets you to 85. Thirty gets you to 95. Eighty gets you to 99.
The curve climbs steeply up to about 20 stocks then bends flat
Past 30 names, every additional stock buys you a fraction of a percent of variance reduction. Past 80 you are essentially flat. The math does not care how the names got into the portfolio.
Direct stock, mutual fund, ETF, doesn't matter.
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Friend showed me his portfolio over coffee last weekend. Seven mutual funds.
He had been adding one a year for seven years. Said he was "well diversified."
I asked him how many stocks he actually owned. He did not know
We pulled the latest holdings page for each fund. Counted unique tickers across all seven. Ninety two names. He looked relieved.
Then we ran the math behind diversification and his face changed.
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Pulled the 5-year backtests for three RupeeCase strategies last night.
Same window. Same Nifty 50 benchmark. Five stocks. Twenty stocks. Fifty stocks 👇🏻
Wanted to see what concentration actually buys you
The CAGR row says one thing. The Sharpe row says the opposite.
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volmaru retweetledi
AI makes backtests trivially easy to produce. The bottleneck was never mechanical. It was always: why does this edge exist? Who is on the other side, and why do they keep losing? More backtests does not mean more alpha.
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@MushFoodie @Fallibilist Did not expect this band here 👍👍👍 , for introduced to the his in FC4
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@san1suresh @pranavvk So why is OMC, including Shell holding out on its own? Shell has hiked price but it online with dollar depreciation.
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@pranavvk true... i missed this completely that it is deregulated, and OMC's can decide on its own.
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🤣🤣🤣🤣
PS : Yes, there is no proposal today for petrol (may be already there for diesel). But It will come on 30th morning and implemented in 1 hour.
CNBC-TV18@CNBCTV18Live
#JustIn | Ministry Of Oil And Petroleum Gases Says, There Has Been No Proposal To Increase #Petrol Prices
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