Jackson Buckle

52 posts

Jackson Buckle

Jackson Buckle

@jackson_buckle

Katılım Ocak 2022
129 Takip Edilen33 Takipçiler
Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@degencapitalfnd @calvinfroedge Maybe, but the current spot sulphur price is $1100/t FOB Vancouver, which more than justifies bringing on the production. Gas could be zero and it would still print money. There’s about 300 t/d shutin, with 160 t/d that would be exposed to spot. The math is absurd…
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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
$MOS curtailing fertilizer production due to the sulphur shortage from the Hormuz closure Closing 2 plants in the US and scaling down a plant in Brazil
🏴‍☠️ tweet media
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@AlexSS94736924 @RazorOil $130/t but everyone forgets about stringency. Right now only a small portion of existing facilities’ emissions are exposed to carbon pricing. That increases year after year though. Like Razor said, this makes Greenfield a tougher sell.
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Razor Oil
Razor Oil@RazorOil·
$130/T CO2 emissions is a wonderful way to limit any large scale greenfield development going forward. Current facilities just became much more valuable. Sad. And yes I did the math. 😢🪒
Razor Oil tweet media
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@degencapitalfnd @calvinfroedge Just wait until their shut in volumes come online, the majority of which are not subject to the sulphur marketing agreement. 10s millions of incremental FCF. If they hedge ‘27 volumes at 700+ that’s 100%+ of their market cap in FCF. This thing will go vertical.
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Sasha
Sasha@degencapitalfnd·
@jackson_buckle @calvinfroedge He's just salty cause he missed the boat. Been buying Cavvy since 25 cents a bit over a year ago, up over 500%. Used to be my largest allocation, now trimmed 60%, letting the rest run. They execute well, debt falling, cash flow improving, dunno what he's talking about lol
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@Albertagarbage @calvinfroedge Unownable? Sulphur has been in a meltup for 2+ years now based on solid demand side fundamentals and essentially no supply side response - well before SoH. I wouldn’t say Cavvy is “unownable” but it’s definitely no quality compounder if that’s what you’re saying.
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@VagabondRTW @VulmearJ45663 Sulphur prices have run from ~$50/t in 2024 to over $1100/t today, rendering MOS’ phosphate production fabulously unprofitable. Yeah they’re only worth 7 billion because they’re about to get smoked by sulphuric acid costs.
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📍i’m here
📍i’m here@VagabondRTW·
The largest integrated producer of fertilizer in North America $MOS is only worth $7 bil with the worst fertilizer supply shock ever. People are about to learn that you can’t eat Nvidia chips
📍i’m here tweet media
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@RazorOil Where are the H2S fields? The people yearn for sulphur!
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Razor Oil
Razor Oil@RazorOil·
Good morning to all friends that know where the 🇨🇦 Canadian 170 Billion barrels of recoverable oil is located…and yes relatively almost no oil in BC, mostly gas…🫡🪒
Razor Oil tweet media
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@GK_Fellows @peteremcc Somehow, I don’t think the Chinese, Russians, Venezuelans, AMERICANS, Saudis, Indonesians, Indians, etc. etc. give a flying you know what about the “social cost of carbon”, even if such a thing were quantifiable. They want energy affordably and reliably.
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Kent Fellows
Kent Fellows@GK_Fellows·
@peteremcc @jackson_buckle Social cost of carbon estimates related to lost productivity and capital destruction resulting due to the global warming potential of carbon emissions.
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Kent Fellows
Kent Fellows@GK_Fellows·
In 2023, Cenovus' Sunrise oil sands project made ~40 cents more per bbl because of TIER (yes, a subsidy). Christina Lake made ~8 cents more per bbl and Foster creek payed about 1 cent per bbl. These projects had marginal costs between $45 and $65/bbl. WCS is Trading at $90/bbl
Heather Exner-Pirot@ExnerPirot

“Things like the industrial carbon tax are things that make us uncompetitive. And those are the things that need to be reformed or removed if we’re going to form capital in this industry and grow in a meaningful way,” said Jon McKenzie CEO of Cenovus.

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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@GK_Fellows @peteremcc Yeah you lost me here - there’s no tangible economic benefit. The real economic benefit is actually negative because it diverts capital (and work! I would know) from productive uses.
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Kent Fellows
Kent Fellows@GK_Fellows·
@jackson_buckle @peteremcc Because there's substantial economic value in decarbonization in its own right and because TIER does an amazing job of introducing an incentive to decarbonize while dramatically limiting the economic burden on the sector (and has been doing that since 2007).
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@GK_Fellows @peteremcc Well, why would we intentionally make it less resilient, and chase the marginal (or not marginal) dollar of capital to our competitors?
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Kent Fellows
Kent Fellows@GK_Fellows·
@jackson_buckle @peteremcc But also: WCS is highly variant as well, and the sector survived the 2008 and 2014 price crashes. I know it hurt a lot of people (including family and friends of mine) but the oil sands is much more resiliant than most folks outside the sector realise.
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@ShaleTier7 None of these people has ever been within 10km of a boardroom or Investment Committee meeting. I would also doubt they’ve ever attempted to model the economics of a SAGD greenfield project either, or the economics of carbon capture on said project.
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@GK_Fellows @peteremcc That’s very significant. At the company I work at, that’s many multiples higher than all the benefits and salaries paid to all contractors and employees, i.e. very uncompetitive vs. all other jurisdictions with which we compete for capital. Especially when the cycle rolls over…
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Kent Fellows
Kent Fellows@GK_Fellows·
@jackson_buckle @peteremcc At full stringency (0 tonnes per barrel targets) and $170 per tonne, most per barrel costs are right around the $6 to $8 range with the upper end at $13 ish (assuming the cost to abate is higher than that, if lower, they do that instead of paying the carbon price).
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@andrew_leach @RazorOil Carbon capture fundamentally has negative economic value. Absolutely no rational economic actor would do this unless the government forced them to, with taxes, regulations, or otherwise. It also diverts capital from more productive uses. A negative flywheel effect if you will.
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Andrew Leach 🇨🇦
Andrew Leach 🇨🇦@andrew_leach·
@RazorOil The best sources remain the hydrogen plants, while post-combustion capture on an otsg or a gas turbine is untested and likely to be far more expensive. I've always been a Pathways sceptic. Once you think about how to get to fid on capture, I think it all falls apart.
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Andrew Leach 🇨🇦
Andrew Leach 🇨🇦@andrew_leach·
All the oil industry advocates lining up to tell me that I am wrong and that, in fact, Canada's oil sands are a low value, very precarious investment is pretty funny. Lower ghgs per bbl to the global avg? Not possible! Keep it up, folks. Canadians will get the message eventually.
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@peteremcc @GK_Fellows Everyone is forgetting about how these costs escalate through time. Under current policy you go from credits/low millions of compliance costs per year, to tens or hundreds of millions in the 2030s, to hundreds of millions to billions in the 2040s. That’s enough to kill a project.
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Peter McCaffrey
Peter McCaffrey@peteremcc·
@GK_Fellows I think we're agreeing. Of all the problems and risks and barriers to development in the industry, TIER isn't near the top of the list.
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Jackson Buckle
Jackson Buckle@jackson_buckle·
@GK_Fellows And you expect this to continue indefinitely? You’re forgetting about benchmark tightening. The math is pretty brutal because as the benchmark tightens and the headline carbon price increases, the TIER compliance costs escalate exponentially.
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Rabab Ibrahim Abdulhadi رباب ابراهيم عبد الهادي
Rabab Ibrahim Abdulhadi رباب ابراهيم عبد الهادي@AbdulhadiRabab·
Freedom for @thiagoAvila & @SABU_BCN, kidnapped & detained by genocidal Israel, intent on starving Palestinian people & the spirit of solidarity. @AmedStudies @TeachingPal
Amnesty MENA@AmnestyMENA

🚨We are deeply concerned for the safety of activists #SaifAbuKeshek and #ThiagoAvila who are being taken to #Israel for questioning after being arbitrarily detained by the Israeli military after the unlawful interception of the #GlobalSumudFlotilla vessels in international waters. 🚨The two activists were participating in a peaceful solidarity mission aiming to break Israel's unlawful blockade of the #Gaza Strip and deliver aid to Palestinians struggling to survive under Israel’s genocide and unlawful occupation. 🚨They are at great risk of human rights abuses, including torture and other ill-treatment given @amnesty's previous documentation of the abuse inflicted on flotilla activists detained in October 2025 at the hands of the Israeli authorities 🚨It is especially concerning that Saif Abu Keshek, a Palestinian-Spanish-Swedish national, is being detained on suspicion of affiliation with a terrorist organization given Israel's discriminatory laws and persistent record of harassment and oppression of Palestinians under Israel’s system of apartheid. Israel must immediately release them and ensure they are protected while in custody. 🚨Israel’s defiance of international law must end. The ICJ has been clear: Israel’s #occupation is #unlawful and must be brought to an end. States must act now to restore some faith in international law by holding Israel accountable for its violations and crimes.

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Keşfet

@degencapitalfnd @calvinfroedge @AlexSS94736924 @RazorOil @Albertagarbage @VagabondRTW @VulmearJ45663 @ShaleTier7