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@UVAALLDAY @UVAMensHoops @BarstoolUVA Where did you see the Sam Lewis news. Would be good news. The other 3 had posts from UVA directly...

So far Chance , De Ridder , Grunloh and Lewis have all said they are coming back. I would say that’s a pretty good little Monday. Odom is so clutch @UVAMensHoops @BarstoolUVA

@JKMDelaware @ChazNuttycombe Not consecutively. They can boomerang, but few do... at least not recently. It may have been more common many years ago, I don't really know.

@ChazNuttycombe Trick statement. Virginia Governors can't be reelected.

Nobody on this list got re-elected as Governor FWIW

@samshirazim Seems like there will be a lot of options in VA7 (if the amendment passes, which is far from assured) Who says these districts were written with specific candidates in mind?!

Seems like there will be another announcement coming soon in the new proposed VA-7 From Del. Elizabeth Guzman…

@jmurrayva @samshirazim Youngkin was unable to really DO anything legislatively so people could ignore him.

@samshirazim It’s interesting that previous Governors didn’t have this issue…

This same poll released Spanberger approval today Approve 47% Disapprove 46% Partisanship seems to have finally caught up to her The old adage that governing is harder than campaigning At the same time, Trump disapproval at 57% should keep Virginia Dems in business

@samshirazim Although she didn't pass all the things she was accused of being for that were bills proposed for reasons I don't understand and that mostly didn't pass.

Also think Youngkin approval benefited most of his term from not being able to pass his main priorities Old adage of staying popular by not doing much If he had a trifecta and passed a 15 week abortion ban for example Spanberger starts off with a trifecta and passing things

@busenjoyer01 @GoodmanHoops @TheNBABase uh.... I wouldn't if I were them. Nothing particularly against him, but he was really poor (in an admittedly very challenging situation) last year for UVA.

REPORT: UNC is expected to ‘go hard’ after Ron Sanchez, per @GoodmanHoops. “North Carolina is now solely focusing its efforts on Ron Sanchez. They're going to go hard after him, per sources. They expect to know more in the next 24 hours.” (h/t @TheNBABase)

@amyewalter @markzbarabak Just so he can feel like a winner in the primary? What a weird decision, even for a guy who doesn't think things through most of the time.

Welp, President Trump just ensured that Dems no longer have to worry about getting shut-out of getting into Nov. general election in CA GOV. Cc: @markzbarabak

@mattyglesias @brianbeutler It won't converge all the way. Maybe a bit... a few points. There are probably a LOT of double haters at this point.

Had a good conversation about this @brianbeutler on the latest episode of Politix. His is view is that anti-Dem sentiment among Democrats is artificially depressing the Dem generic ballot so we can count on that converging on Trump's dismal approval ratings.

@UVaHoopsRiffs Odom might think he has a magic touch with bringing in the right guys and they will gel well. But as good as he might be, we got super super lucky on top of the skill he clearly has. We should work HARD to keep TDR if he's truly open to staying. I'm not sure he's an NBA prospect.

of course it is. and i'm assuming odom is being aggressive as well as thoughtful, prioritizing everything including potential game changing newcomers. but clearly retaining an all acc first team guy should be quite the bird in the hand.

@amyewalter The only Trump ad I got from the YES campaign was just over the top and not effective even for me and I hate what he's doing to this country. The NO ads I get are all lies and smears. I have gotten some very good Yes ads with Obama and could envision some good Yes ads with Trump

WaPo poll of VA redistricting referendum finds 46% say their vote is to oppose Trump, 6 pts lower than CA referendum last year. Trump is -17 in VA. Begs the question as to why main messenger for YES in VA is Obama not Trump.

@anmhouston @amyewalter Agree 100%! Especially when he directly impacted so many with DOGE etc... and also indirectly impacts just as many as he does nationwide.

@amyewalter I find it hard to believe Trump has the same approval rating in VA as he does nationally.

@BearsPurgatory Yeah... a little crazy (given how Poch has seemed to think about Musah). He'd have to go on a TEAR for Atalanta to get called in. He hasn't been on a tear in a long long time... and he just doesn't play regularly enough for me to say it's likely.

Am I crazy to think Musah is one of the biggest winners of this window? Musah and Adams might be the best 6/8 combo the US has to offer. I’d very seriously consider Musah playing alongside Adams in the middle of 4 line of the 3-4-2-1 formation. #USMNT

@ChazNuttycombe @StateNavigate I still don't get how the EV is only slightly redder than in 2025. I get how it *could* just be slanted towards more blue voters in red districts... but that doesn't feel right. You and others are saying that, but I'm not deep enough into the data to feel like it makes sense.

Looking like this is gonna be a pure base election. 90% of both sides in their appropriate camp. With high turnout and the EV looking barely redder than 2025 so far in @StateNavigate estimates, that's good news for the Yes campaign. This electorate will be similar to 2025.

New WaPo/Schaar School Poll for the VA Redistricting Amendment, uses ballot language: Yes (RV) 53-44 Yes (LV) 52-47 We've got a competitive race on our hands, advantage team Yes (the 10-1 gerrymander team)

@Julie4Virginia @celeste43_ @TeamZissou @ChazNuttycombe With this bottom-feeding approval numbers for Trump/GOP, it's not gonna shift a ton towards them by April 21. It could actually get worse for the GOP, blunting any improvement that they get because the amendment isn't just a R/D vote.

@celeste43_ @TeamZissou @ChazNuttycombe Also, elections change so rapidly in Virginia. The Virginia Governor’s race is always determined by the presidential race in Virginia. If a Republican wins in a U.S. Presidential election and Democrat wins the VA Gubernatorial race the next year, as well as vice versa.

🔶INTERACTIVE UPDATE🔶 We have added the estimated partisanship of the early vote in the Virginia redistricting amendment election. Dig in. No, this isn't April Fool's. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states/v…

@LizMair Inflation isn't that bad yet. It could get a lot worse if gas prices stay high.

This is really quite astonishing. The inflation number isn’t even that bad (I’m not saying I like it, just saying… it’s not that bad!). Speaks to overall Trump fatigue and the fact he WAAAAY oversold his ability to rein in/reverse inflation.

@Jaaavis Is he really gonna be able to grift much?

This just means the grift can last all the way until November instead of ending in a primary loss

@UVaHoopsRiffs If they get her on a good team, she's going to be really really hard to stop. Especially on a team that has another good forward and good 3 point shooters.

Must be headed to a top 3 or 5 program but just IMAGINE her w Kymora Johnson... 😩

@ClistonBrown I'm pretty sure it's not the main reason although it's a factor of course. I did a quick search to see and there is *some* correlation it seems. But causation? This graph sure doesn't look like it. At least not at the main reason. kylepiira.com/2024/05/21/the…

We’re having the wrong conversation. You know why college costs more now? Supply and demand. As we keep pushing people into college who shouldn’t be there, the cost goes up. It’s a market imbalance. Get more kids into trade schools and apprenticeships. College costs will drop.

@zkwerrell @StateNavigate I'm interested in any responses to this. The data do not seem to support the hypothesis that Dems are keeping pace/nearly keeping pace with 2025. They also don't have to do nearly as well as 2025 to win of course so margins are super important.

Okay so your actual methodology is even worse than just using L2 data, and suffers from a major flaw due to a wild assumption… You presume that the partisan vote share is identical to the 2025 LG partisanship. You assume that the partisan ratio of people voting in this special is the same as it was last year. There is absolutely no justification for this. You can clearly see that there is at least some, if not a massive turnout differential just by looking at the map. To assume that turnout is proportionately equal in every precinct to 2025 is nonsense. You have been doing some regressions by precinct, a very basic improvement to your model (that would be crude, but at least significantly better than this) would be to apply the coefficient found across precincts to vote share within precincts. A more granular approach would be to derive this coefficient within counties, and apply it to just the precincts in that county. (This too makes a potentially problematic assumption, that whatever is driving differential turnout at a precinct level maps onto individual voting behavior… however, at least you’d be controlling for SOMETHING that clearly is driving the observed difference in turnout behavior). I don’t have the raw data, but if you’d share, I’d gladly do the math and give you the outputs. (And provide the code/math/etc., and I wouldn’t even ask for attribution!) But presenting this as a “model” is not a good look, because literally all this shows is “what if 2025 was happening again but with some marginal tweaks.” I like your work (and a model nerd myself) and so I’m offering this as constructive feedback.

Virginia EV Partisanship Update: Compared to yesterday, the Virginia early vote has become 0.2% redder. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states/v…

@kkondik @MrUnionYes That does not fit with the anecdotal evidence though... But anecdotes are not always right.

@MrUnionYes Very slightly, yes

I just RT'ed the comparable data from this point of the election in October 2025. Just as with the L2 report from 5 days ago, you have to squint to see any difference between then and now