@halbkass @LarLasso @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren A map of Ukrainian fortifications would probably be more useful for an idea of how much it takes to keep a line viable.
English
James
1.6K posts
@james21245 @LarLasso @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren James, do we need a map of Latvia and Lithuania too?
English
As @edwardlucas wrote just a few days ago: “Ukrainian news outlets are really not helping anyone (except the Kremlin) by pushing this fact-free story that the Baltic states are about to be invaded.
Allies should not depict small countries as defenceless pawns in a big-country game; that is what Russia does.”
Here is an excellent example:
Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦@rshereme
Imagine the following scenario: russia attacks the Baltic countries to connect with Kaliningrad — just as it attacked Ukraine to gain access to Crimea. What will the U.S. do? Here’s my prediction: nothing. Article 5 will be treated like the Budapest Memorandum. Trump, Rubio, and other MAGA propagandists will claim, “This isn’t our war.” And if russia swiftly invades the Baltic states (which would be far easier than Ukraine), declares them part of russia, and then threatens the West with nuclear weapons should they respond — what will the West do? Exactly what they did for Ukraine. The cowardice of the U.S. has emboldened russia. Those who now say “russia would never dare invade” said the same about Ukraine — right before russia did exactly that. The only way to stop russia now is to help Ukraine and punish russia for its imperial ambitions.
English
@LarLasso @halbkass @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren Well yeah I'm talking about the full Baltic line.
English
@halbkass @james21245 @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren So? After river if something would happen there is a lot of swamp in the middle and small gaps north and south. That is a very good place to defend. I would be more worried about Suwalki and to get cut off from rest of the Europe.
English
@LiisMure @edwardlucas The issue is a) Russia has the wholehearted intent and theoretical capability of seizing ground in the Baltics b) Reclaiming that land would be have to be done without American nuclear umbrella, armoured divisions & airpower...all in the face of nuclear brinkmanship.
English
@edwardlucas is right - even friends of the Baltics have spread the dangerous and false narrative that:
a) the Baltics are incapable of inflicting significant pain on an invader, and
b) NATO is effectively defunct.
Exactly the story Moscow would like to take hold.
EUobserver@euobs
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are alert, well-prepared and tightly integrated into international alliances, writes @edwardlucas Read more: euobserver.com/208951/russia-…
English
@Martlu12 @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren Either the Baltic border is inadequately fortified or am I'm wrong and I'd be incredibly happy to be wrong in this case.
English
@Martlu12 @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren You're getting weirdly salty when we're on the exact same side. I'm saying you haven't fortified the border adequately and you're saying WhAtABOUT XYZ EdUcAaTE urself M8. Just frankly odd.
English
@thinkdefence Not NSM? Don't you reckon Venom ends up in an awkward no-mans land of punch, cost and legs?
English
Sea Venom surface launch needs to be on a trailer, a trailer that fits in a Merlin. Just sayin
Think Defence@thinkdefence
To be replaced with Sea Venom, this brief video clip illustrates the Sea Skua anti missile in surface launch configuration.
English
@halbkass @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren No it's just Wednesday, living next to Russia with the USA de facto out of NATO. You don't have to panic but you do need to go way way over the top in terms of preparing so that it never becomes doomsday.
English
English
@Martlu12 @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren Russia doesn't care what they spend, they care whether they can easily roll the border or not. I watched four years of this shit happening to Ukraine, the lessons haven't been learned & exceptionalism is rife. Look at USA with E3's wrecked out in the open for a prime example.
English
@james21245 @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren Google search is like.. right there.
Ask chstgpt or any AI if you must.
"What is Baltic defence spending? How are they preparing for threats from Russia?" Etc.
What happened to intellectual curiosity? Knowledge is literally 2s away
English
@baltic_fella @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren I understand the challenge but fortifications are one of the cheapest bang for you buck things you can do. You've got your allies forward deployed as tripwire forces and covering all sorts of problems like the high north and nuclear deterrence.
English
@james21245 @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren We are doing that. Baltics are top spenders by GDP. But we are relatively small which makes it hard for us alone cover east wall. Some help would be really appreciated by allies now 🤞
English
@halbkass @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren Very gladly but even you guys are not making the argument that it's been fortified like the Ukrainian front. Is the border with Russia mined, with anti-tank ditches and fortifications in depth?
English
@james21245 @edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren James, not true, book your vacation on come look.
English
@Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren @edwardlucas The Kremlin is in the White House mate, you need to worry about a little more than just propaganda.
English
@james21245 @iLepikVonWiren @edwardlucas Maybe these links will help answer the question of why we’re getting angry. And btw, take a look at how Art. 5 works, then I think it will be even easier to understand why we think this is manipulation.
x.com/twee_papillon/…
x.com/twee_papillon/…
Auraja ‡@Twee_Papillon
Just one tiny request: Please, be more creative than👇
English
@edwardlucas @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren I am extremely pro Baltics Edward but if they have not fortified their front with Russia they are overly vulnerable and it's not excusable.
English
@james21245 @Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren The B3 are super-vigilant. They won't be caught by surprise. Their readiness is examplary. They have their own deterrence, And they allies who will reinforce them. Give them some credit for that
English
@Twee_Papillon @iLepikVonWiren @edwardlucas Why are they getting angry? It's a fucking obvious problem. They should be getting ready. That's the way to prevent it, not relying on the fucking USA at the moment.
English
@iLepikVonWiren @edwardlucas He keeps doing this over and over, and then acts surprised that the Baltics are getting angry.
Auraja ‡@Twee_Papillon
Just one tiny question: -Who is leading him by the hand?
English
@thinkdefence I'll add though we also seem remarkably bad at learning lessons from successes/failures. Could almost do with a Department whose job it is to whack ministers & generals around the head with them. See US planes getting droned on runways for a great example.
English
@thinkdefence We're a remarkably resilient species, just look at the levels of cope Spurs fans will have tomorrow. Just need to cut off reasonable worst case scenarios & stop doing stupid shit. Then play to strengths.
English
Its hard to be optimistic isnt it?
Lots of doom on both the near and far horizon, our political and leadership class seem further than ever from realistic solutions, and I dont think we are anywhere near to understanding the sacrifices all are going to have to make.
English
@TBrit90 @thinkdefence We had that with Brexit, it's same psychology as MAGA and continued with Reform. Version on the left emerging too. Populism & mad kings create crap mid-long term outcomes. There's fairly hard evidence of this in history books and recent study.
English
@thinkdefence We need a Trump for a few years who isn't afraid to just do stuff.
English
@thfcAlex3 I swear to god if the next match opens 3atb and neither Gray, Bergvall or Xavi in midfield.....
English
@RyanO_ChosenCoy @M9053828456166 Why aren't we seeing sabotage efforts pop large-scale energy infra in the way long-range drones are? I thought after Spiderweb it would be an obvious approach. Sorry for all the questions btw, appreciate being able to ask someone informed.
English
@james21245 @M9053828456166 I assure you there is no issues getting explosives into russia to blow shit up via non-drone means.
English
I am glad Ukraine is now doing follow on strikes on targets. Previously and to much annoyance to me, we would strike refineries whatever deep targets then ignore hitting them for 2, 3, 4+ weeks or even months. Primorsk and other areas should be hit and then there should be follow on strikes daily for as long as feasibly possible to increase the damage by preventing repairs, preventing emergency services to halt the damage and increase disruption.
We need to continue to move into a constant pressure type setting mission posture in the deep strike territory until effectiveness for that target drops to xx%.
This also goes for the tactical and shallow operational depth areas.
No more needle poking, blow the shit out of whatever the stated objective/target is by hitting it repeatedly or constantly attacking everything at X depth in x sector to pull pressure off the front.
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦@NOELreports
Sentinel L2A satellite footage from the oil terminal in Primorsk, Russia today. A total of 10 fuel tanks have burned out after four consecutive days of Ukrainian drone attacks. One more tank -but possible more- sustained damaged. #Russia
English
@RyanO_ChosenCoy @M9053828456166 Totally, if Ukrainian's are using it. Would an FPV size EFP be nasty for a oil/gas storage tank? Thermite I was suggesting using if trying to pay Russians to do it to their own infra deep in Russia, given explosives might be hard to come by & therm can be made at home.
English
@M9053828456166 @james21245 its easier, quicker and more reliable to use a shape charge or a EFP vs wait for thermite to hopefully work properly.
English
@RyanO_ChosenCoy It seems to do the damage to only one or two tanks from what I can see though (certainly does the job starting fires). It's not like one slipping through is wrecking the whole farm, but I guess maybe that's unrealistic.
English
@james21245 adds complexity for no added benefit. A HE with frag will do the same amount of damage as far as puncture tanks and start fires. Cluster munitions do not always do what they are intended to do and add costs and complexity for little benefit when it comes to drones.
English