Jared Hulbert

@tunguz "with almost nothing in between" You are so wrong. Tons of places here are prohibitively expensive AND littered with dilapidated hellholes. Shows how little you know about this great state.

I just want to set the record straight, as you might have a wrong impression from following my posts recently: I ABSOLUTELLY FRIGGIN LOVE CALIFORNIA!!! Literally my favorite place in the world. HOWEVER! The way it’s run, the way many cultural streams operate, the way that it’s either prohibitively expensive to live OR littered with dilapidated hellholes - with almost nothing in between - and the fact that it has very few stable lasting communities makes me never want to move there. I hope things may change there one day, but I am not holding my breath.

Been saying it for a while. Treat your AI as an eager to please human addicted to heroic doses of Adderall and meth, occasionally bath salts. Most of the time it’s cool but be prepared for when it hallucinates, lies to your face, steals your crypto, and staggers about w/ a knife.

@CJHandmer I struggle to understand how a human of even bottom quartile intelligence would need input from an economist to determine, empirically, that since 1981 in house NASA rockets have infinite costs and schedules while commercial rockets are getting cheaper fast.

The author of this piece does not seem to understand what an economist is or what they did at NASA. I know some of NASA's economists, I have enormous respect for their knowledge and skills. But at no point were they responsible for procurement (different department) contract management (different department) finance (different department) or program performance (you guessed it, different department). If NASA had been required to operate under sound economic principles with input from its former team of economists, it's possible that it wouldn't have had to slip Artemis launches by one year per year and watch the SLS cadence blow out from 2 per year to one per two, I mean three, or maybe four, years.

@PTrubey @365_Solved @Sarah_Cecc @skdh From first principles, why have the whole fab clean? If there are humans respirating in there it’s not very clean by angstrom litho standards. Long gone are the days where humans are handling processing steps.

@365_Solved @Sarah_Cecc @skdh Sure, but a fab has clean room layers. Even with those carriers, they are being transported in a high class clean room.

If someone told me a semiconductor shipment was late because it was the wrong phase of the moon, I would not have believed them before reading this paragraph!

Intel had a massive lead. They were TSMC and Nvidia combined. So they could make money for a long time. But that’s not the claim. What new product type or even market that took off post founder era? x86, networking, limited graphic chips work, memory tech all got started during founder era. Even attempts to buy into new markets with acquisitions have almost all ended in divestment. By 2015 it was clear they could make cutting edge chips. That wasn’t one mistake I saw cultural seeds of that failure were back in 2006. The downfall took a long time and was incredibly deep and dire. It took a decade, all their savings, selling off acquisitions they made like 5yrs earlier, literally mortgaging their house, and government bailout to come in 3rd place instead of dying.

@aakashgupta In that case, explain Intel. Founder led, product focused company, managed to hold on for decades after the founders stepped down and only really had major trouble two or three CEOs downline and onwards.

Andreessen is describing an organizational physics problem that most people misread as a leadership platitude. Every person inside a company who isn’t the CEO is being evaluated on execution against existing commitments. Their incentive is to protect current revenue, hit quarterly targets, and avoid blame for things that go wrong. New products threaten all three simultaneously. They cannibalize existing lines, they pull engineers off shipping commitments, and if they fail, the person who championed them gets punished while the person who said “we should focus” gets promoted. This creates a specific organizational gravity. In a 10,000 person company, roughly 9,950 people wake up every morning with the rational incentive to prevent new things from happening. Product managers are measured on shipped features for the current product. Sales wants tools that close this quarter’s pipeline. Finance models next year based on this year’s revenue mix. Engineering leads protect their headcount by showing utilization against existing roadmaps. The CEO is the only person in the entire org chart whose incentive structure rewards creation over maintenance. They’re the only one who can absorb the political cost of pulling 40 engineers off a revenue-generating product to build something with zero customers. They’re the only one who can tell the CFO that Q3 is going to look ugly because they’re funding a bet. They’re the only one who doesn’t get fired for a failed product launch. This is why “product-led” companies die the moment the founder leaves. Look at Apple post-Jobs 1985-1997. Look at Microsoft from 2000-2014 under Ballmer. Revenues grew. The stock was flat for 14 years. The company shipped zero new product categories. Ballmer optimized the existing machine. Nadella came in and forced Azure, forced the cloud pivot, forced the GitHub acquisition, forced the OpenAI bet. Every one of those moves had internal opposition. Every one required someone with termination-proof conviction. The “wills them into existence” framing is the accurate part. Will as in overriding the immune system of a large organization that treats new products the way a body treats a foreign organ. The CEO is the only one with enough immunosuppressant authority to keep the transplant alive long enough to take.

@BenjDicken Not if you use it wrong. bitflux.ai/blog/memory-is…

Whoah he's right.

@terronk our ballots likely have little overlap. But man I’m tired of SB145 being maligned. IIUC it’s a concise piece of legislation to allow older gay teens to be afforded the same treatment under the law as straight teens. Weiner has written a few good bills, some sane bills, but he also writes really disastrously terrible ones like SB53. Can we focus on the bad ones already?

@BreitbartNews Guys: the other candidates are Hamas boosting Marxists. If you have to eat shit, don’t nibble.

AP publishes a puff piece on creepy CA Democrat Scott Wiener "Policy wonk... unafraid of a fight" "Republicans have blasted many of his policies aimed at defending LGBTQ+ people, sometimes calling Wiener, who is gay, offensive names." No discussion of the content of these policies, such as a law reducing penalties for same-sex statutory rape of an underage victim

I built this just for fun for a few friends but: 1. it's growing organically 2. people that installed and connected to a few friends use it every day 3. the #1 thing i hear from people is "I text my friends more now" which is perfect. Exactly what I hoped. Talk to your friends!

@AlecStapp Your city water could be cheaper if it was untreated, came intermittently in an uncovered ditch, and it was your responsibility to pump it.

Chatted with a water resource economist at an event in California yesterday. The state’s water “shortage” really is one of the most unforced errors in policymaking. Key stats: - farmers use 80% of the developed water supply - residents use 20% - cities pay ~20x higher prices (!) for water than farmers (~$722/acre-foot vs ~$36/acre-foot) - some of the biggest agricultural districts in the state pay literally $0 for their water - meanwhile agriculture accounts for just ~2% of California’s economy It’s crazy that politicians tell residents to take shorter showers or get rid of their lawns instead of just charging farmers the market price for their water usage.

@Icalbert101 AMA

@jaredhulbert somewhere between 3-4.

Starting to talk about home schooling 8y/e. Anybody down that road right now?

@terronk Once the billionaires are driven off world, we’ll find it expensive to enforce taxation outside of the gravity well.

If the data center NIMBYs win, the only viable location for DCs will be orbit, which only SpaceX/Grok has economic access to. The commie Luddites are going to make MechaHitler win.

@connorshepherd @terronk Yes.

@terronk Are you confused about the idea of a public datacenter, or the idea of profit-sharing for datacenters, or both?

Still trying to wrap my head around this: there are two commonly used "Notepad" apps on Windows for .txt editing: Notepad and Notepad++. Both had severe exploits over the past few months. Quite literally, editing a TXT on Windows is now a high-risk activity :(

@zzznah @tinytapeout @__ReJ__ Rad.

Working on the new simulator. I just wanted to see what Atari2600 fetching data from ROM looks like at CMOS FET level (@tinytapeout TT09 Atari circuit by @__ReJ__)

@bwilliams18 @patio11 They purposely and openly systematized it during 90s and 00s, they would sign right of first refusal and even seed fund.

@patio11 The thing that's most interesting to me about the Cisco pattern is that they've clearly systematized it: there's a small group of folks who do this every few years, and when they do, Cisco invests in the startup. In other examples, you could see it as happenstance or kismet.

Had an interesting home improvement experience: * Ordered blinds at Big Box Store. * They are effectively a marketing/sales frontend for Local Manufacturer / Installer LMI. * Subsequently had the window replaced. * One of the blinds doesn’t fit. And so called to ask what to do.

@somefoundersalt @pronounced_kyle Earth is not 100% shielded. At TiB scales these radiation effects are present on earth. LEO is "just" orders of magnitudes worse. Mostly we'll need to fast track the mitigation techniques we'll need anyway for sea level chips in a decade. ECC and redundancy for the win!

@pronounced_kyle TID damage risk is low enough that most operators don’t prioritize Cobalt-60 testing anymore SEE mitigation is main beast that will fuck up your day, and you can’t do the trick of slapping on more aluminum because of secondary particles.

If you want data centers in space, you need radiation-tolerant chips. Specifically, chips that survive both: ▸ a cumulative "total ionizing dose" (TID) ▸ bit-flipping, energetic particle strikes (SEE) The latter is scariest. Google tested its Trillium chips and found that the TID risk was low — they modeled a 150 rad per year dose, and only saw irregularities at 2,000 rad (2 krad). But the SEE risk was high. They saw an uncorrectable ECC error from a SEE every *50 rad*. That's three per year... no big deal for inference, but a huge deal for training runs. If you had a networked cluster of a few thousand chips training a new model, three errors per year would make you see dozens of upsets every day. Maybe we just do our training on the ground and our inference in space. But if we want full, end-to-end data centers in space, we'll need rad-tolerant chips.

@hthieblot @harjtaggar With respect. What?!

@harjtaggar Half of SF is kinda like the burbs

Put down your avocado toast and move to the burbs already 🏡

@larissaphillip @CJHandmer You’re right to point out the blessing it is to have a big loving family. I am grateful to have had a similar experience of mutual love and support with my siblings as we helped my mom through her last months and in the aftermath of her passing. Talk about generational wealth!

@larissaphillip @CJHandmer Right? It’s like quantity of life far outweighs any thought of quality of life. I know this path you’re on is tough. All you can do is your best.

Despite a lifetime of yoga, gardening, dogs, minimal drinking, XC skiing, lots of friends, and so on, my mom has gotten to the stage of life (86, beginning dementia) where her body and mind are failing her. She lives in my sister’s MIL apartment. They walk their dogs together every night, and my sister looks after her in various ways, including managing her increasingly complicated medical schedule. I spent a few days with her last week, including staying over in the hospital with her while she got a new aortic valve. She was getting dizzy yesterday and ended up back in the hospital where it looks like she’s going to get a pacemaker. My brother is with her and about to spend the second night in the hospital sleeping on a chair next to her bed. —————- Have kids—more than one. Don’t let your inevitable fights with your siblings last. Stay in contact with your family. I can’t imagine doing this alone.