Jay Goldberg 顾忠南

Bloomberg’s @RyanVlastelica and @jwittenstein call me a “cantankerous gadget geek”. Nicest compliment I’ve been paid in a while bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@ContrarianCurse And NVDA is saying $/GW is going to double to $90B-$100B

@isaacstonefish @tculpan I’ve written many “Just came back from two weeks in China and everything is more complicated than Twitter makes it sound”.

Serious question: has anyone over the last several years written a "I just came back from China and the United States is ahead" article? I've read dozens of examples of the opposite, and not only do I take them with mountains of salt -- Beijing excels at convincing people on these stage managed tours that don't appear stage managed at all -- I'm getting bored.

@andrewlekashman Well played

Good night, Westley. Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely kill you in the morning. ~the Dread Pirate Roberts from the Princess Bride

@Scholars_Stage I think they are trending even more dovish than the 1990s cohort. Maybe different if they work anywhere near diplomacy or journalism.

What I honestly don’t have a good sense for yet, because they are still too young to have percolated into positions of import, is where the young American whose formative experiences were in the China of 2024 or 2025 tends to land, other things being equal. I could see it go either way.

Perennial reminder that living in China is not correlated with hawkishness/dovishness. It *is* correlated with when one lived in China—those whose foundational China experience in the late 2010s tend, other things being equal, to be far more hawkish than those whose foundational experiences occurred in the 1990s.

@lithos_graphein Wait. Where are the EUV systems?

Fresh Dune 3 Trailer.

@TheValueist Meaning, all your questions are biased towards the downside. Where are the cracks? Rather than, are there cracks? Not trying to argue either side (or criticize), but your questions sound like a full thesis.

@jaygoldberg I don’t follow what you are saying. Please explain further.

$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE This earnings season, my primary objective is to identify the earliest signs of structural fatigue in the GAI infrastructure trade. Idiosyncratic outperformance is a secondary concern, as the portfolio is positioned around assets I believe to be among the most durable long-run beneficiaries of the GAI infrastructure build-out. The central risk is a negative narrative inflection: any management commentary suggesting that demand visibility is shortening, hyperscale capex intensity is peaking, backlog conversion is slowing, supply constraints are easing in a margin-dilutive way, pricing power is normalizing, or customer ROI scrutiny is beginning to constrain incremental spend. My priority is to detect subtle signals that the market’s core GAI infrastructure thesis is transitioning from scarcity-led expansion to normalization, deceleration, or overbuild.

😒 ... and I've used it all up

@Srasgon 😂

At least today is Friday

@harri37108 @BenBajarin Not yet I’m coming around a bit I still don’t see that consumer uptake but now I can at least picture what it could be.

@BenBajarin I think the real bear case is @jaygoldberg point 3 years ago that not enough consumers use AI. I also remember when people waited in line for iPhone - there’s just no conviction that AI is really part of everyday people’s lives even now

I've also been doing this as long as Mr Burry. So there is that. The deepest wisdom comes from having an in depth bull and bear thesis. We have those in spades, I don't see bears able to eloquently communicate the bull case. Both are necessary to be credible.

AI Fatigue , Meta's Neo-Cloud Rumors , and Samsung's Foundry Comeback With @benbajarin and @jaygoldberg share.transistor.fm/s/26b52382

@insane_analyst @jwt0625 @bubbleboi The first @insane_analyst pop-up. You could sell tickets. The rest of us would have to take a vow of silence to participate

@jwt0625 you, me, and few other optics people from the group @bubbleboi set up few month ago should meet again. I wana bring pen and paper. Ask questions about SOA FWM conjugate phase. We shall have such fun. Later July?

@BenBajarin 🙋‍♂️

I’m yet to find someone bearish on AI who is studying how it’s being applied practically inside the top 20% of early adopting enterprises where its value is quantified at scale across the organization and high value in particular to mission critical functions. There are those to talk to enterprises and then there are arm chair bears.

@insane_analyst 😂

The root cause seems unaware of his powers. ♥️

@BenBajarin I’m in. Would rather drive to your house than Brentwood

I’m an hour 10 south of SF maybe we should have a pick peaches, berries, tomatoes and talk tech event at my house :) Oh and a class on bee keeping !

@pretentiouswhat It used to be very common, almost ubiquitous, but it’s been a long time since I’ve seen it

I think the only time I've ever paid more for an attraction as a foreigner in China was in 2014 at the Longmen Grottoes in Luoyang, where they told me the senior citizen discount only applies to Chinese citizens and my father needed to pay full price.

Cerebras Earnings, QCOM Investor Day, Micron Earnings and the Memory Mafia With @benbajarin and @jaygoldberg Chapters: (00:00) Remembering Om Malik: A Tech Pioneer (02:50) Cerebras Earnings: Challenges and Opportunities (06:08) Qualcomm's Investor Day: A Shift in Focus (09:50) Qualcomm's Custom ASICs and CPU Roadmap (15:08) The Future of Qualcomm: Challenges Ahead (19:01) Qualcomm's Revenue Forecast: Confidence or Caution? (23:51) Custom CPUs: A New Frontier for Qualcomm (29:49) Micron's Earnings: Market Reactions and Insights (36:45) Micron's Earnings Call: A Game Changer (39:00) Changing Nature of Contracts in Memory Industry (41:53) Gross Margins and Industry Dynamics (46:14) Micron's Strategic Positioning and Capacity Planning (49:58) The Game of Thrones: Memory Industry Rivalries (54:02) The Fragility of Memory Pricing and Demand (58:02) NVIDIA's Pricing Power and Market Dynamics

SHOCKING: Many neocloud executives we spoke with feel that if they have non-NVIDIA networking gear on their cluster, or if their cloud has an AMD GPU or TPU offering, NVIDIA will retaliate. They feel that retaliation includes not giving early allocation or no longer supporting a potential IPO/VC raise.(1/3)🧵

@boymanrobshit @insane_analyst @GavinSBaker Better if he stays anon. Does the interview in hoodie, sunglasses and a face mask.

10/10 @insane_analyst doing an interview with a company where he disagrees with the technical approach as it provides sub optimal signal integrity will be the biggest draw of this whole event @GavinSBaker 100% I will attend if he is giving up his identity and running a session