jay

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jay

@jayofeng

Writing thoughts on investing, business, and post-economic life @ https://t.co/553u1SeiWm Running Interview Query (https://t.co/vG8ReHXV7R)

San Francisco Katılım Nisan 2009
230 Takip Edilen572 Takipçiler
jay
jay@jayofeng·
@DDrolapas It doesn't look like it's directly affecting prices though? Listings drop in half and prices are still the same as October of last year
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Dimitris Drolapas
Dimitris Drolapas@DDrolapas·
At this rate there will be no apartment inventory in San Francisco and tenants will be the new landlords.
Dimitris Drolapas tweet media
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jay
jay@jayofeng·
I tracked what 294 people actually did after asking Reddit if they should quit their job. The gap between "retire" and "one more year" is not close.
jay tweet media
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Rohin Dhar
Rohin Dhar@rohindhar·
San Francisco median single home prices over the last 20 years The last “bull market” was from 2012 to 2022, a ten year run For those positing that we’re in a bubble that's about to immediately burst, we are only in year *one* of this new up-market History isn't guaranteed to repeat, but in San Francisco it's been a cycle of 6-8 years of a roaring housing price escalation before a two year correction that gives up some of the gains. Massive boom, medium bust. Rinse and repeat. There is a no precedent for a "one year boom" If I had to venture, would say we are in the early days of the next San Francisco housing bull market. The AI company IPOs have yet to hit. There are so many startups that are on the verge of becoming massive companies. There is no virtually new supply of housing being built. There isn't even much interest among developers to build, despite eye popping rents and home prices. We could just be in year one of the boom, only now just catching up to 2022 nominal prices
Rohin Dhar tweet media
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Zach Tratar
Zach Tratar@zachtratar·
I've been looking for a home in SF now for 1.5 years. The pricing changes in the past 6 months have been *disastrous* and will imminently hurt a lot of regular people. Just to be clear: this home is not worth $8.2m. The only reason it sold for this is because we have 1) almost zero supply and 2) infinite demand caused by the greatest wealth creation event in history. This is, by definition a bubble -- a bubble economy for an asset people get 30 year mortgages to pay off. For the OpenAI/Anthropic folks with $100 million, the bubble popping won't hurt them much. But this is causing a pricing effect on the whole market, and it's going to hurt a lot of normal people 1) when it pops or 2) in the next earthquake.
Rohin Dhar@rohindhar

San Francisco home sale in Presidio Heights at $3.8 MM over asking price

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yetanothersearcher
yetanothersearcher@yetanothrsearch·
@texasrunnerDFW In Dallas, there is also a phenomenon of builders tearing down ~$750K homes and putting $2M homes on those lots. Great houses, but overbuilt and not moving. So you end up with a weird barbell of listings with a gap where the buyers are.
yetanothersearcher tweet media
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Amy Nixon
Amy Nixon@texasrunnerDFW·
One minute video update on the housing market in the Dallas Suburbs: Sellers are stuck in 2022, buyers are having none of it, and agents are freely admitting how bad it is!
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jay
jay@jayofeng·
@levelsio You can also move to SF and just not be in AI
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@levelsio
@levelsio@levelsio·
Very honest post about moving to SF
Clara Gold@Clara_Gold

6 months ago, I moved to San Francisco. It’s the best place in the world to build, and one of the worst places to stay human. My unfiltered take: 1. SF is both overhyped and underrated The overhyped part: there are a lot of people with incredible resumes who are deeply unimpressive in real life. They were at the right company, at the right time, in the right market, and got carried by the wave. They made money, got comfortable, and now spend their time “exploring opportunities” over coffee, wasting your time. The underrated part: the top 1% here is insane. But almost impossible to get. Hiring in SF feels like being a guy on a dating app: everyone you want is out of your league, and everyone in your league wants someone out of theirs. The best people have unmatchable packages, endless options, and are optimizing for maximum impact: labs, frontier companies, or startups raising $100M pre-seed rounds. If you raised $10M from Tier 1 investors, you’re not hot shit here. You’re a B-player. It’s humbling. 2. There are fewer mission-driven people than I expected Especially on the application layer. A lot of people are in “secure the bag before it’s too late” mode. And honestly, it gives me the ick. The real religious builders I’ve met are often in labs, hardware, biotech, deeptech, defense — places where the work is hard enough that you can’t fake obsession. 3. The status game favors builders This is what SF does better than anywhere else. It rewards obsession. It rewards weirdness. It rewards people who make building their entire personality. Europe punishes that. SF gives it status. If you’ve felt like an outsider your whole life because you care too much, work too much, think too radically, or refuse to be chill about things that matter, this city will make you feel less insane. 4. The market liquidity is absurd Even if you don’t build a billion-dollar company, if you manage to build a strong product with a great team, someone smart might still acquire you for $ 100M. Yeah I know, it’s not your dream outcome as a founder, but on the days you feel desperate, it helps to keep going. 5. SF does not care about the meaning crisis that’s coming Anyone paying attention here can feel that something massive is happening with AI. But I’m shocked by how little people talk about the meaning crisis coming next. Everyone wants to talk about AI liberating humanity. Almost no one wants to talk about what happens when work — the thing that gives most people identity, structure, dignity, status, and purpose — starts disappearing. The vacuum will not be peaceful. People are underestimating the chaos that comes from humans suddenly having no idea why they matter. And I really feel like no one cares. 6. Personally, I’ve never been more unhappy I moved to SF and entered the matrix. I’ve always been intense. I’ve always worked crazy hours. But here, I lost the last parts of myself that were not about building. I don’t go to events. Most networking events feel like theater for people pretending to be important. The only events worth going to are small, curated dinners with people who are actually alive. I’ve made 0 real friends. I don’t do well with transactionality. I don’t do well with people constantly performing greatness. I don’t do well with rooms where everyone is optimizing and no one is being honest. So yes, SF is lonely, transactional, delusional, addictive, inspiring, boring, extraordinary, and completely insane. But it is still the only place to be right now if you’re a founder trying to build the next wave of humanity. And for now, that’s enough.

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Robert Silverman
Robert Silverman@BobSaietta·
Using facial recognition tech, the Knicks surveilled a trans woman, tracking her every move out of fear she'd show up on MSG's tv broadcast And they can do it to any "enemy" of Jim Dolan, who's built his own deep state. From @NoahShachtman & me @WIRED wired.com/story/madison-…
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
@NYCMayor Don't worry folks, after he drives everyone with homes over $5m in nyc out, he will lower the extra tax to $2m homes... then $4,000+ rents... and he won't stop until the death spiral is complete.
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jay
jay@jayofeng·
@RichardHanania NIMBYism happens in California because people care about protecting access to coastline, nature, and parks - all of which benefit from fewer people than in Texas, where you're mostly building on flat desert. I don't agree with NIMBYism FWIW
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Richard Hanania
Richard Hanania@RichardHanania·
In California, the median home price is $809,000, second behind Hawaii. That is over 2.5 times higher than Texas, where it is $308,000. I've been optimistic about the abundance movement shrinking this disparity. What to make, then, of the fact that although California has taken positive steps, Texas has recently gone much further? California now allows more of some kinds of housing, and removes some barriers. Meanwhile, Texas in effect nuked local discretion by creating a first-in-the-nation "by-right" zoning regime. If you own land and want to build multifamily housing that meets existing requirements in any commercial or retail area, you can. This applies to 19 of the 22 largest cities in the state, including Houston, Dallas, and Austin. The gap in land use regulations between the two states continues to grow. This has serious implications for what I call Elite Human Capital theory. The uncomfortable truth might be that ideas don't matter as much as we would like. Yes, Abundance as a best-seller might make California 20% less restrictive, but there are perhaps too many interest groups in the form of unions, environmentalists, etc., to ever get to real housing freedom in a Democrat-led state. Meanwhile, Texas Republicans don't need to read books to do the right thing. Being on the side of business is enough to do what supports the collective good. The caveat here is that the Trump administration has accepted populist arguments about corporations owning housing. So the future of the right might be a move away from housing abundance and toward "slopulism", which would be a tragedy for the country.
Richard Hanania tweet media
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jay
jay@jayofeng·
Just saw a fly that was stuck in the room somehow escape back outside through the windowsill. Made me inspired that I should be able to solve my own problems too.
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Rohin Dhar
Rohin Dhar@rohindhar·
Btw, the Chronicle had a very good article this week about a family that bought a house in San Francisco, that actually was a 4-unit apartment building that the prior owner had allegedly merged into a single family home without permits Now, the city may have them revert it back to an apartment building bc if they let this fly, probably every 4 unit building would eventually get converted to a house and eventually the dwindling rental house stock would be even more dwindled Not sure if there is any good solution here but worth reading, perhaps as a cautionary tale to read the disclosures carefully and understand if there are any major risks in them. All homes have risks when you purchase them, but you want to understand the magnitude of the tail risk you’re taking on. Is it a five thousand dollar risk or a five million dollar risk?
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Rohin Dhar
Rohin Dhar@rohindhar·
San Francisco Chronicle analysis of the cost of a bundle of groceries at various grocery stores in the city Trader Joe’s is by far the least expensive and they didn’t raise their prices this year
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jay
jay@jayofeng·
@tylerjrichards @grok explain this to a layman and create a simple slogan that would convince a state senator
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Rohin Dhar
Rohin Dhar@rohindhar·
San Francisco rents are increasing at a stratospheric level 1 bedrooms: up 16.1% year over year 2 bedrooms: up 19.0%
Anthemos Georgiades@anthemos

San Francisco is the story of @zumper's first rent report of the year 📝🌉 1BR rents are ⬆️16.1% YoY to a median of $3,670 2BR rents are ⬆️19.0% to $5,010 To put this is context, this is SF's largest annual rent growth since Zumper began tracking trends a decade ago

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jay
jay@jayofeng·
@TheGladiatorHC @grok steel man the bear case here and what’s the best publicly traded asset to buy given what they’re saying about copper?
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TheGladiator
TheGladiator@TheGladiatorHC·
You just can't own enough Copper. Billionaire Robert Friedland sums it up perfectly..... You people have no idea whatsoever what we’re facing. “We’re consuming 30m tonnes of copper a year. Only 4m tonnes of which is recycled. That means to maintain 3% GDP growth, with no electrification, we have to mine the same amount of copper in the next 18 years as we mined in the last 10,000 years, combined. In the next 18 years, I’ve got to mine the same amount of copper as we mined the last 10,000 years. This is without any new electrification, without data centers, without solar and wind and the greening of the world economy. You people have no idea whatsoever what we’re facing.”
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