James Dollinger

@GasBuddyGuy Thanks!

@jdmce DOE/CESER

RECORD: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve just fell by its largest ever weekly amount: almost 10 million barrels. Total SPR now at under 375 million barrels.

@pickeringenergy @Austindude20 FWIW fading the ravid/axios pukes has been a pretty good trade

@Austindude20 Fell for it the first 8 times, now it is on mute.

Energy investor. Sunday night. Turns on computer. Any resolution to US/Iran conflict? No. Any re-opening of Strait of Hormuz? No. Checks math - Another 70-90mmbbls production lost/inventory drawdown? Correct. Turns off computer. Stares out window with quiet confidence. #EFT #OOTT

@staunovo Hi - wondering what the source data is?

US SPR crude inventories fell by RECORD ~9.9mb w/w to 374.2mb last week #oott Sour down ~6.1mb to 231.9mb Sweet down ~3.9mb to 142.2mb

@Energy_Tidbits Eventually those need to reverse course to ration crude oil demand

321 crack spreads -$3.62 WoW to $54.66 on 05/15. Yet WTI +$10.00 WoW to $105.42 on 05/15. $54.66 are huge crack spreads in the US and reflect the global thirst for petroleum products from the US from what has been effectively a shut down of Persian Gulf products exports. $54.66 is a huge economic incentive for US refiners to draw more crude to make big margins ie. a positive draw on oil prices . Thx @business safgroup.ca #oott

@morgan_downey Deferred crack spreads are way too high for a makt that needs to cut refinery runs

Trump exited China this morning sans Iran announcement. Here are 50 reasons oil rallies to $150+ in June (feel free to add more in the comments): 1. Hormuz closed 10+ weeks. 2. 12M bpd loss ongoing. 3. Trump-Xi meet. No Iran deal 4. Demand destruction needs $150-$250 to really get started. 5. 85-day buffer nearly gone. 6. 1B efficiency glut depleted. 7. SPR releases insufficient. 8. Global inventories at lows. 9. OECD commercial lean. 10. China strategic buying. 11. India demand strong. 12. Europe restocking. 13. US production promising but flat ultra short term. 14. OPEC+ no short term relief. 15. Spare capacity gone. 16. Geopolitical premium high. 17. $100 floor holding. 18. Momentum building. 19. Analysts raising price targets. 20. Summer driving season. 21. Refinery margins high. 22. Floating storage draining. 23. Pipeline constraints. 24. Tanker rates spiking. 25. Insurance costs up. 26. Asia imports surging. 27. Middle East tension. 28. No quick resolution sustainable. 29. New buffer math exhausted. 30. Price inelasticity. 31. Speculative longing. 32. Physical tightness. 33. Inventory data hitting 5yr lows. 34. Demand resilience. 35. Supply shocks compounding. 36. SPR at 20-year low. 37. Commercial stocks drawn. 38. Efficiency gains exhausted. 39. Just-in-time gaps emerging. 40. Consumer spending robust. 41. Forward curve backwardation. 42. Crack spreads wide. 43. Jet fuel demand fall not enough. 44. Diesel tightness. 45. Gasoline season starting. 46. Global economic growth steady. 47. China stimulus. 48. India expansion. 49. No alternative energy supply. 50. Equity and fixed income markets not familiar with physical oil reality.

@KobeissiLetter What would be the dumbest thing for the fed to do…. Position yourself accordingly

There it is folks: Interest rate futures now see a BASE CASE of the next Fed move being a rate HIKE. In fact, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates before July 2027 are a mere 1%. As inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option. All as Consumer Confidence just hit a record low and the labor market is weakening under the surface. Rate hikes into stagflation are coming.

What if @BarakRavid wasn’t trying to keep a lid on oil prices but rather to manipulate them temporarily lower creating a s/t buying opportunity? Does that mean the oil bulls will stop saying mean things about him? #oott #donthaterheplayerhatethegame

@Rory_Johnston Bro summer driving season increases final gasoline demand by like 500kb/d max… Thats like the 14th reason to be constructive on petroleum prices

People are dunking on this and, yeah, "one way or another" is hand-wavey—but I agree that the cumulative consequences of Hormuz's closure will ultimately force its reopening. I'll just be more explicit. I expect: - The war to end and Hormuz to reopen when Trump makes a concession to Iran to overcome current impasse, likely on nuclear (domestic enrichment or "nuclear dust", i.e. HEU stockpiles) - Trump has been thus far unwilling to make those concessions because there isn't enough market pressure to push him off his nuclear position. Prices have pulled back repeatedly on belief that he's found an end, and in doing so reduced the very pressure required to end it - Oil prices will more durably rise as supply deficits accumulate, SPR buffers dwindle, and commercial inventories empty through summer driving season - Pain will eventually push Trump to drop nuclear demands (or, more likely given recent reports, delay nuclear negotiations in favour of a "skinny" deal to end war and reopen Hormuz) - War will end, Hormuz will "reopen," and then we get to deal with the messy, unsettled aftermath. Inevitably unstable post-war conditions likely lead to occasional blow ups and disruptions, even as mixed traffic through Strait resumes The sooner oil prices rise, the sooner the war ends.

@BarakRavid Just take the L bro

הנשיא טראמפ אמר לי שהוא שוחח עם ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו הערב ודן עמו בתגובה האיראנית. עם זאת הוא הדגיש שזה היה חלק קצר מהשיחה ביניהם. "זו הייתה שיחה מאוד נחמדה. יש לנו מערכת יחסים טובה, אבל זה העניין שלי, לא של אף אחד אחר," הוא אמר בהתייחסו למו״מ עם איראן

@FReichComeback @PatrickMoranTB Also I’m seeing different epa numbers can you share your data source?

@FReichComeback @PatrickMoranTB I’m not sure I understand what the term trend volatility means?

Is that a Brasky burner account? How about Josh overcoming the four turnovers (two clearly his fault) & other mistakes by having 349 total yards and 3 TDs, with a Brandin Cooks completing a catch OR McDermott's defense making a stop late in the fourth away from winning anyway.

Just curious how @BarakRavid and @axios define closing in on?

@MercurySchroepp @mattyglesias This generally more a function of california specs and taxes - but also the US west coast states have to import crude oil on the global market so have been much more exposed to disruptions caused by hormuz closure

@jdmce @mattyglesias San Francisco doing its part. 💪

@modgovae But @BarakRavid said a peace deal was imminent - and he has too much integrity to shill for US negotiators/manipulate oil prices lower

تتعامل حالياً الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية مع اعتداءات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة قادمة من ايران وتؤكد وزارة الدفاع أن الاصوات المسموعة في مناطق متفرقة من الدولة هي نتيجة تعامل منظومات الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية للصواريخ الباليستية، والجوالة والطائرات المسيرة. UAE Air Defences system are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats MOD asserts that the sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAV's #وزارة_الدفاع #وزارة_الدفاع_الإماراتية #MOD #UAEMinistryOfDefence

@DanielBShapiro @BarakRavid Serious question - why would Iran accept a deal that is worse than the jcpoa when they have massive leverage over the global and particularly gulf states’ economies via closure of hormuz?

What's behind the move to wrap up the war this week on these terms, which fall well short of the original war goals? China. Or, more specifically, Trump's upcoming visit to Beijing on May 14-15. If the war is ongoing or even escalating, it puts Trump in a constrained position with Xi Jinping. The war has already required a reduced US military posture in the Indo-Pacific (no aircraft carrier sailing in the Pacific in over two months), and there are long-term effects (reduced munitions stockpile, long-term maintenance needs of the US Navy) on our ability to deter China and defend Taiwan and other nations. Trump would arrive in Beijing bearing responsibility to solve the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He would even be in the position of asking for Xi's help to get Iran to accept US terms, and possibly to send ships to the Gulf. In the background, China would press its global campaign to portray the United States as the cause of instability and itself as the responsible adult. Trump has already been trying to tamp down tensions with China heading into the summit. He has shown deference in delaying approval of a Taiwan arms sale, not backing up the Japanese prime minister in a verbal spat with China, and with a limited response to renewed Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Trump wants to stabilize the economic relationship after last year's dust-up over tariffs and critical minerals. He has his eye on major Chinese purchase of soybeans and airplanes, and possibly the establishment of a board or other mechanism to manage trade and investment issues. Xi, for his part, will try to extract a signal from Trump on Taiwan, pushing for him to adjust the US position on Taiwanese independence from "not support" to "oppose", a subtle but important change. So far, Trump has refused. Overall, Trump's position and leverage at the summit is considerably weaker if he goes to Beijing with the war still unsettled, or even with renewed escalation. And the Iranians know that. So they are whittling down the terms to end the war to something much more modest than what Trump originally envisioned.

@BarakRavid @axios Is there a deal yet?

SCOOP: The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. My story on @axios axios.com/2026/05/06/ira…

@alexbward @BarakRavid If uncritically regurgitating admin trial ballons as fair accompli is great reporting I suppose this is a factual statement

The pile on @BarakRavid is wildly unfair and ridiculous. He’s a great reporter. The rest is noise. Everyone get back to work.

@SamRo Someone should talk about how Axios reporters are coordinating the timing of their stories to admin insiders so they can make profits day trading commodities markets

"Total Axios output in Q1 compared to the first quarter of 2026 was down 22% as a result of the changes. Page views were up 30% and page views per visitor were up 22%, according to internal data shared by the publisher."