Austindude

Pattern last month has been leak some sort of positive news pre Monday market. Then Tuesday is api number Wednesday eia draw and oil rips then slow sell off Thursday Friday the rinse and repeat. However another two weeks of this and this shit ain’t going to work anymore. Global storage will be too low. Plus Trump about to blow more shit up bigly! Bears are about to lose big time.

Just your classic Monday—Wash, rinse, repeat. Here are my quick takes on two pieces of news. Sensitive moves in diplomacy—like low key offers or waivers—need to be handled under the radar so everyone keeps their dignity. Leaking it to the press just to spin it for domestic propaganda and boast about squeezing concessions out of the US puts Washington in an impossible spot. With domestic critics breathing down their neck for "getting played by Iran," Washington is forced to walk away or double down, even if the offer was legit. Iran’s cheap megaphone diplomacy is basically throwing a wrench in their own gears and blowing up the deal. The gossip about Iran setting up some BS Bitcoin-based toll system is a joke, so I'm completely tuning it out. Anyone with half a brain in shipping understands the compliance risks these carriers are looking at. No point in wasting breath trying to spoon-feed that reality to the generalists. Also for the record, Iran’s shrinking crude output and exports are a direct result of the naval blockade, not the paper sanctions. It’s basic knowledge obviously, but we’re dealing with too many clueless tourists in the market lately. Btw i noticed there’s absolutely zero talk about ending the blockade, uranium, or the Strait of Hormuz? Best of fucking luck to them lmao. #oott #iran

@pickeringenergy Axios about to post some shit like “ peace talks continue “

Energy investor. Sunday night. Turns on computer. Any resolution to US/Iran conflict? No. Any re-opening of Strait of Hormuz? No. Checks math - Another 70-90mmbbls production lost/inventory drawdown? Correct. Turns off computer. Stares out window with quiet confidence. #EFT #OOTT

@elonmusk Honestly who cares. 9 out of 10 movies are so bad you can’t watch them. Plots or horrendous. Everything has to have some demented twisted plot. Movie plots are seldom positive and never wholesome.

Yes

@anasalhajji @unveilance In the short term, long term , most agree it be will replenished, which in theory should help provide a higher floor on prices when oil retreats back 60 to 80 range when Srait opens back up. Replenishing will provide more demand than if the spr stays drawn down.

@unveilance some people showing a chart of declining inventories and pushing a bullish narrative. Releasing oil from the SPR increases supply.

🪐Today I’m debunking two major oil market myths: 🚖Large Decline in China's Oil Imports: The compensation was NOT from drawing down storage. 🚖US SPR decline: It is NOT bullish. Daily Energy Report open.substack.com/pub/afalhajji/…

@grok @TradingAloha @jasongoepfert @grok What’s the average length of time before the market sold off on the above dates

No one knows exactly when—or if—a crash happens. Those historical setups (1929, 1973, 1999) did precede big drops, but markets evolve: broader participation, Fed tools, AI/tech concentration, and massive liquidity change the game. Timing the top is a loser's game. Risk-manage your portfolio instead of betting on doomsday dates.

@jasongoepfert So based on this @grok when will the $SPY all come crashing down?

@HFI_Research So talk down oil prices from 115 to 95 or so before you put boots on ground in hopes of only spiking back up to 115 on a Monday after you attack on a Friday night.

@Energy_Tidbits Keep 3 for wedding and funerals. Toss the rest !

Oil prices are nowhere near what everybody expected says Trump. .. everybody was wrong. They thought that energy would be $300, right, $300 a barrel, and it's like, at $100 and I think going down, and I see it going down very substantially when this is over. Chris, and I think, i think very rapidly, too, at levels that you've never seen ...." Trump. Thx @business #OOTT

@AshikJ @SenValladares @CAProblemSolver Letting IRGC develop a nuclear bomb is by far a worse idea don’t you think.

@SenValladares @CAProblemSolver It's almost like the War was a terrible idea.

California’s last major oil shipment is here. After this, we’re short about 200,000 barrels a day—and no one has explained the plan to replace it. @CAProblemSolver asked two weeks ago. Still nothing. You can’t run the fifth-largest economy on “we’ll figure it out.” latimes.com/environment/st…

@HFI_Research @staunovo Seems light? I would have thought double that number.

Final crude estimate for May 1 week. SPR release is 5.2 million bbls. Total crude draw including SPR is 10.7 million bbls.

@HFI_Research @CRUDEOIL231 @OpenSquareCap Only option for SOH and the 60% enriched Uranium is boots on the ground only After unleashing a barrage airstrikes for 24 or 35 hours. It’s a horrible solution but thats the only one that may work without destroying the global economy with 200$ oil for months on end.

@CRUDEOIL231 @OpenSquareCap They also have a side Nuke now: Strait of Hormuz. They’ve always had it, but now that they’ve played the card, they can’t play it again.

I’m telling you, Iran is never giving up those nukes. Whatever they were thinking before, this war just made them obsessed. It’s only natural for them to think, “Man, if we had the nuke bomb none of this would’ve happened.” Just look at North Korea. They’re stuck in a peninsula with five of the world’s biggest militaries breathing down their necks, but they survive just fine. Why? Cuz they have a real deterrent. Nukes. This is Iran’s Pearl Harbor or Korean War moment. Give up the nukes? No way. This war just gave them a reason to never let this happen again. Whatever they say publicly, they’re locked in now. I bet Koreans will totally back me up on this. What Iran is doing right now is exactly like the North Korean playbook we've been watching for decades. So it comes down to two choices: either we sit back and watch them get the bomb, or we physically stop them. #oott #iran

@RepRashida Impeach yourself and include term limits on members of congress

Term limits for the Supreme Court. Enforce a binding Code of Ethics. Impeach these corrupt justices. Expand the Court.

@WhiteTundraSG Great stuff here. That speaks volumes on where we are headed. Service CO’s are about to get really busy.

Permian DUC's are ⬇️ 83% over the last 6 years as another one of the world's oil supply insurance policies is now completely exhausted. With rig counts also continously trending lower and well productivity declining materially, US shale's zero-growth era is here to stay. 🛢💰

@_everythingism @gbrew24 Better than them obtaining a nuclear bomb. Death chants of death to America, I take seriously.

@gbrew24 So this is all to force Iran to make a deal on their nuclear program. Iran already agreed to reopen the strait but Trump rejected it. I wonder how Americans feel about their economic future being sacrificed over that one issue.

Trump is going to stick with the blockade. Which is, in effect, a decision to not make a decision. Trump will wait to see if the blockade works. Iran faces economic pressure--albeit the kind the country's leadership have a lot of experience with. Hormuz stay shut. wsj.com/world/middle-e…

@FirstSquawk So we going to capture Kharg island tonight.

THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IS LOOKING INTO THIS QUESTION, AMONG OTHERS, AT THE BEHEST OF SENIOR ADMINISTRATION FIGURES, AIMING TO UNDERSTAND THE FALLOUT OF TRUMP POSSIBLY EXITING THE FIGHT — A MOVE SOME OFFICIALS AND ADVISERS WORRY COULD FUEL HEAVY REPUBLICAN LOSSES IN THIS YEAR'S MIDTERM ELECTIONS, SOURCES SAID.

@PatriotSammi At minimum they should digging the lake deeper so when it does fill back up they have more capacity.

The water crisis in South Texas just hit a breaking point. 📉 At least six towns—Taft, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Three Rivers, Orange Grove, and Alice—have all issued disaster declarations in the last two weeks. The regional supply is failing, and demand is officially higher than what’s left in the reservoirs. While small towns are begging for help, the priorities are clear: One Exxon-SABIC plastics plant nearby is burning through more water than all 300,000 residents of Corpus Christi combined. The state says they need $174B for long-term water infrastructure, but they’ve only put up $20B. That’s a $154B gap while towns are literally being forced to drill emergency wells just to keep the taps running. Corpus Christi is already projecting mandatory 25% cuts by September for residents and hospitals, but they're still protecting the industrial heavy-hitters to avoid "wrecking the economy." How are residents being asked to cut back while corporations keep getting protected? #DemsUnited #Climate

@SheDrills I think it was a libretard dressed in maga shirt

A MAGA asked me why companies aren’t keeping gasoline in the US cheap and selling it at a premium abroad…I reminded him we live in a free market and you don’t pay less for a t-shirt at Walmart just because you live in a different neighborhood. More reality checks coming as US exports soar. #IranWar‌

@TheRealMarina0 Yes

BREAKING: TAXPAYER BENEFITS CUT? Congress is moving to ban all non-citizens from receiving taxpayer-funded benefits like Section 8 housing, food stamps, and Medicaid. Should government welfare programs be strictly reserved for U.S. citizens only? A. YES B. NO

🚨 FOX NEWS ALERT: First Lady Melania Trump SLAMS Jimmy Kimmel as a ‘coward’ and demanding ABC fire him after he joked about President Trump in a WHCD skit, stating: “Mrs. Trump, you have a glow like an expectant widow.” FLOTUS wrote on 𝕏: “Kimmel’s hateful and violent rhetoric is intended to divide our country. His monologue about my family isn’t comedy - his words are corrosive and deepens the political sickness within America. “People like Kimmel shouldn’t have the opportunity to enter our homes each evening to spread hate. “A coward, Kimmel hides behind ABC because he knows the network will keep running cover to protect him. “Enough is enough.  It is time for ABC to take a stand.  How many times will ABC’s leadership enable Kimmel’s atrocious behavior at the expense of our community.”

@j49576 @Hedgeye @biancoresearch Please explain

@Hedgeye @biancoresearch Counter UAS defense is coming sooner than you think. I know it very, very well . . .

Jim Bianco ⁦@biancoresearch⁩ on Why Defense Stocks Are Breaking Their 35-Year Pattern

@MOSSADil @WAR527 We will own Kharg island next 72 hours.

🚨 BACK TO IRAN AND THE NEGOTIATIONS FARCE REPORT: Just minutes after talks collapsed, Tehran handed Washington terms that would: • Guarantee zero consequences for future aggression • Hand over effective control of the Strait of Hormuz • Legitimize uranium enrichment while “promising” no weapons • Lift ALL sanctions immediately • Scrap UN and IAEA oversight • Force a U.S. military withdrawal from the region • Protect its proxy network, including Hezbollah And then, on top of that… they’re asking for compensation. Stay connected, follow @MOSSADil