@fabknowledge Ok, sure. Isn’t it quite significantly better on cost per task? Looks like it based on the independent benchmarking
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Jonny
171 posts
@jdwright1986 It’s a dumb kpi. Don’t agree tbh, cost per task >>>
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Dude so like if this is the best OAI got, are they going to close down and join Anth to make AGI?
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Practically, the only rigorously proven things you can do for life extension right now are:
- Don't be fat
- Be fit
- Control your blood sugar
- Control your blood pressure
- Have low cholesterol
- Don't poison yourself
Almost everything else is speculative and dubious.
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@cremieuxrecueil This chart is so misleading… why would you just deduct credit card revenue as though a substantial portion isn’t converted to points that are converted to flights (i.e., there’s a lot of costs associated with them). No doubt higher margin overall, but this way overstates it
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@ContrarianCurse Yeah right, because once these ones vest they’ll never issue anymore…
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Please god look at the actual fucking share count you absolute retards
Felix Wang, CFA@HedgeyeTech
How many software companies would be loss-making if stock-based compensation was included, rather than excluded?
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I met today with the founder of Starcloud and I realized this is going to be one of the biggest engineering projects of our era. When you look at the tradeoffs, it seems inevitable that all the GPUs are going to live in space.
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@ATabarrok Except the supreme court interprets the 6th amendement to apply only to "serious offenses". So you can argue that five years is too long, but it's about where you draw the line rather than a substantive, fundamental difference
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Once upon a time in Britain there was an “ancient right” to free speech, an “ancient right” to bear arms, and an “ancient right” not to be detained indefinitely without trial. Now, those are all memories....To avoid this in the US, we wrote our Constitution. nationalreview.com/corner/britain…
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The number of app updates is an interesting proxy for the speed of progress in AI chatbots.
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Thinking about reading another novel. Anything good out there besides Moby Dick?
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@GavinSBaker @DavidGeorge83 @a16z The parallel to dark fiber might be the huge number of GPUs being used for R&D / training. Maybe those investments will pay off but - as with dark fiber - its capacity that is being installed today ahead of monetizable end use
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Really fun to do this fireside chat with my good friend @DavidGeorge83 who has an exceptional track record.
Dark fiber during the telecom bubble vs. melting GPUs today.
Grateful to David and the @a16z team for inviting me.
youtu.be/5ze3ZNvOdRY?si…
YouTube
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@GavinSBaker Would be important, but where do you see that? Blackwell does not seem widely available yet judging by the small number of regions in which it's offered?
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Amazon raising Blackwell per hour pricing.
H200 rental pricing going up *after* Blackwell scale deployments ramping up.
Might be important.
And certainly more important than ridiculous $300 billion deals that are contingent on future fund raising.
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@benmarrow @TheEconomist It's weird to deduct the revenue from loyalty but not the cost. If I get miles with an airline they get converted into free flights which have opex. Margin is likely somewhat better than typical operations but you're massively overstating the profit contribution
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@dirtdog @TheStalwart Isn't that already happening? Siemens opened a new $190mn plant in Fort Worth this month. I think Eaton announced a $340mn one in South Carolina last month. Is it making any difference??
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@TheStalwart Good news is we have multiple manufacturing facilities in the US for electrical components.
Bad news is we need more because they are under capacity.
Maybe tariffs for all things except building materials?
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Just remembering now how @dirtdog couldn't get a switchgear for one of his drive-thru locations for months and months and then was eventually able to source one from Mexico.
Dan Primack@danprimack
Yup. Not only components like transformers, but also construction materials.
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I didn't ask the question artfully in our chat with Fama and Booth:
A the thing I'm curious about: Is the outperformance of "value" stocks (over time) an inherent property of the stocks. Or is it a function of the WORK required to assemble the list of value stocks pre-computers.
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Ilya has so much fucking Aura
There is no one in AI that comes close. The GOAT says something like "data is the fossil fuel of AI" and everyone instantly agrees.
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@GavinSBaker Interesting and well informed. Scaling law as originally defined meant test loss declines alongside growth in compute / data. Why wouldn’t we see diminishing returns as we asymptote to close to 0 (I.e., near perfect information retrieval)? What does the scaling law mean to you?
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@fabknowledge Not AI cannibalization - he means hyperscaler growth partly replaced enterprise / on-premise servers
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I re-read this note and I think that most of the conclusions seem about as cherry picked as you can ask
1 - 3% CAGR in datacenter when PC was murdering the DC?
2- the AI cannibalization starts in 2017? there wasn't much real AI spending in 2017-2021 in my opinion, just CPU
modest proposal@modestproposal1
"estimates for Nvidia appear to imply an AI server market of $125B by 2025 (from $20B today) - same size as the entire server market today These seem like extraordinary numbers - is there any historical precedent for server market growing at these rates? The short answer is no"
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@safeeffect45923 @amousavi14 @kashyap286 Oh for sure. Might be a bad investment, but silly to act like it’s an accounting fraud. Just a lot of demand all at once.
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NVIDIA $NVDA filed its last quarter's Form 10-Q today. If you have been as surprised by the share price action and the (unaudited) published financials as I have been, this thread is for you.
Let's get into it🧵
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@kashyap286 This is just how accounting works. You record a sale when the service is provided and the receivable is created until cash is paid per the terms of the invoice. Typically 60 to 90 days.
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When revenue is booked but the payment has not been received from the client, the company records this as 'accounts receivable' on the balance sheet. If my hypothesis is correct, there should be a jump in receivables correlating with the revenue increase.
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