JEFF

$SIDU no noise just trading. Nice from .60

jo, again disappinted by your view on the tesla-spacex merger. rather than being a massive bullish catalyst for tesla as claimed by you, the 1-to-1 merger could actually be a significant downside risk for tesla shareholders. first, the assumption that spacex's higher valuation will pull tesla up ignores the mechanics of an IPO. if spacex goes public soon, its initial high valuation will likely be driven by a massive supply-demand imbalance, as demand from retail investors and passive index funds vastly outpaces the available float. once the lock-up periods expire and insider shares flood the market, that artificial scarcity vanishes. if tesla is pegged 1-to-1 with an asset that starts experiencing a post-hype valuation correction, spacex will act as an anchor dragging tesla down, not a magnet pulling it up. second, the two companies have diverging duration profiles. right now, they are at completely different stages in their capital and monetization cycles. tesla’s duration profile is actively improving. with the robotaxi network ramping up, we are entering the harvest season. on the other hand, spacex is moving in the opposite direction. while starlink is a great business, the new "orbital datacenter" narrative is highly capital intensive and years away from maturity. it is essentially a pie-in-the-sky story for the next 3 years. the bottom line is, if a 1-to-1 merger happens, tesla shareholders are essentially being asked to trade a stake in a company that is finally realizing its long-awaited autonomous cash flows for a stake in a company that is burning billions to build out space infrastructure. it is entirely plausible - and i'd argue highly probable - that over the next 3 years, tesla’s valuation goes up organically based on real robotaxi revenue, while spacex’s valuation stagnates or even declines substantially. the more i think about this merger, the more certain i am that i will vote against it, based on both short-term and long-term reasons. what if tesla can acquire a much smaller spacex in the next hiking cycle(a highly possible scenario in the next 3 years) with tesla shareholders retaining the majority ownership of the merged company? if elon musk doesn't want to trade short-term loss for long-term vision, which is the exact argument currently sold by those manipulators, so be it and let the two companies remain as separate entities. also, i can now clearly see there is a systematic and coordinated push by those manipulators. they first tried to sell the plot of spacex acquiring tesla with a premium of only 20-40%. likely due to the strong pushback from retail investors, they are pushing for the so-called merger of equals. however, by just using common senese, these manipulations can be seen through as a direct hit to tesla shareholders' interests. i am deeply disappionted that even jo appears to be siding with the manipulators, abandoning his typically cool, analystical approach.

SPACEX: A realtor named Jim Keaty of Keaty Real Estate published a rumor of possible SpaceX land acquisition in Louisiana. It states SpaceX may have acquired or is acquiring 136k acres (212 sq miles) of marshland south of Highway 82 towards the Gulf of America in Pecan Island and Freshwater City in Vermilion Parish of the Acadiana region. At the Southeast corner of the land near the Freshwater City boat launch is a plot ready to be converted for port operations and direct access to the Intercoastal Canal and the Gulf of America. Pecan Island is halfway between Boca Chica and Cape Canaveral, and has easy access to Cheniere LNG and Golden Pass LNG; both on the either side of the Louisiana and Texas border at Sabine Pass. This has not been confirmed by SpaceX of Elon. More SpaceX news in the ELON CHRON below!