@CernBasher Might define the long term success of our civilization moving forward.
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Q
6.9K posts
Q
@jeffqq
Observing humans and judging them. "Temper, temper, mon capitaine; I'm merely trying to assist a pitiful species."
Q continuum Katılım Temmuz 2009
428 Takip Edilen714 Takipçiler
Long-term success for Tesla (and SpaceX) all hinges on the Terafab...
Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett
Bernstein's $5–13T TeraFab Capex number got a lot of the attention, but our bottom-up analysis (which we just released today) I think is a much better estimate. The SpaceX S-1 confirms the scope and 1TW goal but gives no capex guidance. Given the TeraFab's central role in the SpaceX strategy, we needed TeraFab capex estimates to plug into our SpaceX gigamodel. Outside Bernstein's $5T, the other public anchors have been $55B - $119B curtsey of the Texas tax abatement filing. We started with 100,000 wafer starts per month which we estimate to be roughly ~1/10th of the 1TW target. The model produces a $137B base, with a bear-bull range of $87B to $191B Three things drive almost all of the flexibility in the range... 1) Yield 2) Equipment 3) EUV generation mix Labor and inflation, the stuff the press usually focuses on, explain less than a sixth of the spread. For context, we estimate that 100,000 wspm would translate to roughly 44M chips a year. 2M Tesla Vehicles and 1M Optimi would need roughly 6M chips a year, leaving 35M+ chips for other use cases like Hyperscaling (ground) or Haloscaling (space). Good idea to dive into the full analysis to get the full picture. The analysis is open and ungated for 33 hours and then reverts back to our premium archive. research.33fg.com/analysis/prici… Check it out before it reverts.
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What is going on with AJ when it comes to anything Elon or Tesla?
Seems a consistent pattern is forming. 🤔
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War is back on the menu. #IRAN
Visegrád 24@visegrad24
BREAKING: Reports of airstrikes in Bandar Abbas, Iran. 4 loud explosions have been heard in the area.
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As some of you know, Papa Cat 🐈 passed away 2 years ago.
He left a collection of 60+ year old vintage French imported Cognac that I did not know what to do with.
I finally decided that he wouldn't mind me opening up a bottle to taste.
It tastes incredible.
Cheers, dad. ❤️
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Buffet at the W Hong Kong at Kowloon Station.
Danny @dannycheng2022's treat tonight, again.
We circled around the dessert table all giddy.
Take a look at what we saw. Can you blame us? 🐱💕
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@cantonmeow @dannycheng2022 @sheslee HK buffet sounds hella good. Let me know if you ever drop by Taiwan.
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PC買うんやったら今年中かなぁ…
note更新しました。
まだなにも始まってないけど、
少しずつ生活の中に入り込んできてる。
PCパーツを調べる日々ですね…
ここから少しずつ形にしていきます。
Development Log #002｜写楽 @x7Bx7P2HaxUGU01 note.com/mild_bee5269/n…
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Uber and Lift killed the taxi Medallion value in NYC. AI will do the same to most collegiate degrees. That’s one of the reasons people will default on student loans.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Americans are defaulting on their student loan debt at a record pace: Delinquent federal student loan debt jumped +$12.2 billion in Q1 2026, to $171.4 billion, an all-time high. This has officially surpassed the $166.8 billion peak recorded in Q4 2019. At the same time, the proportion of seriously delinquent loans rose +0.7 percentage points, to 10.3%, the highest since Q1 2020. This comes as 2.6 million borrowers defaulted in Q1 2026, followed by ~1.0 million in Q4 2025. The average borrower entering default is now nearly 40 years old, up from 36.4 before the 2020 pandemic. The US student loan crisis is intensifying.
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Thank you @dannycheng2022 for treating me to my first meal in Hong Kong tonight with an absolute feast! 🐱💕
(Apparently it takes weeks to get a reservation)
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@DoctorJack16 Come on Jack, you didn’t enjoy how cool it was to fend off dragons by dropping your soldiers off a wall with spears cirque de soleil style?Most brilliant tactical move in history /sarcasm
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Outrage is chosen.
Remember when Matt Damon played the mercenary that saved everyone in the ancient China themed movie,
The Great Wall? The left’s backlash was immediate, accusing the director of “whitewashing “ and using the “white savior narrative”?
I thought the rumors to Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey were just that, rumors.
However, it’s looking more-and-more like Nolan really did cast Elliot Page as Achilles and Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy.
In the book The Odyssey, Homer describes Helen as “white-armed” (pale skin) with “lovely/golden” hair.
Achilles is described as “swift-footed, tall, powerful, handsome, golden/fair-haired.”
Wolfgang Peterson held true to the description in Troy. Nolan has not.
When one side does it there is outrage and people are racist. When another side does it, it is considered cultural sensitivity, inclusive, and artistic.
Do we see what’s happening?
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@Micro2Macr0 @iamsergiocoelho I think you’re both conservative. I’m calling 9001.
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@iamsergiocoelho Yes. I am. In the video I say we're most likely going to go above the 18 year resistance line over th next 1-2 years. That would put us well above a 8000.
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Up almost 100% on my $MU position that people told me I was buying the top two weeks ago. 😆
Feeling pretty de-risked 😌 right now and excited to ride out the rest of the rerating. How much higher? I think we can double or more from here, before the end of the year.
Pretty sure my only regret on this one is going to be not listening to @TradexWhisperer earlier.
Sometimes it's hard to separate the frequency from the noise. But make sure you hold on to the people that do.
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Q retweetledi
So you’re telling me President Trump flew 20 of the most important CEOs in the U.S. to meet with the President of China at the same time we’re suppose to get a new Fed chair and while the Iran war is winding down… and you’re bearish?
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