And my amazing colleagues @adelineylo and @_TanaJohnson who were able to join for much of it!!
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Jessica Weeks
173 posts
Watch out, world, for these incredible scholars - and humans! Many thanks to @uwpolisci / @UWMadison for making it possible to host #Journeys2023 this year and above all to co-organizers @amyren10, mentors @mattes_michaela @C_J_Schneider, and founders @sbmitche and kelly kadera.
Büşra N. Özgüler@busranozguler
It was my best academic weekend! I am grateful to the founders (@sbmitche, Kelly Kadera), organizers (@jessicalpweeks, @amyren10), senior mentors (@mattes_michaela, @C_J_Schneider), and all participants ❤️ #Journeys2023
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@mark_crescenzi @KCBansak Very cool new paper @mark_crescenzi - congrats!! And a fine pairing indeed!
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@petestrzok Our new @PNASNexus paper suggests that failing to defend a NATO ally would be a risky political strategy - public puts a lot of stock in alliance commitments. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/arti…
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Should add - even larger effects of joining for Bosnia or Georgia than Sweden or Finland, bc support for defending the latter is pretty high even without a NATO commitment. Also interesting heterogeneity depending on individual views @ NATO. And more!
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Without a global authority to enforce alliances like NATO, it's crucial to know whether/how much joining matters to people in the countries that would be called on to defend the new ally. Our surveys of 13 countries show huge effects of joining (w Mike Tomz and @KCBansak)
PNAS Nexus@PNASNexus
Residents of NATO countries are much more likely to support defending Bosnia, Finland, Georgia or Sweden militarily from Russian invasion if the targeted country is a member of NATO, according to a survey of 14K voters in 13 NATO countries. In PNAS Nexus: ow.ly/gZjH50Pgbp0
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@mcfuhrmann @KCBansak Helped greatly by the NATO conference and the terrific feedback you and others gave us there. Thank you!
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@KCBansak Builds on @BAshleyLeeds @sbmitche @mcfuhrmann @MLBerkemeier @mark_crescenzi @pbkpotter @jkertzer @whoisjonchu @thescottwolford @soyounglee37 @dustintingley @ryan_brutger @sekreps @smaxey265 @JasonReifler @mattes_michaela Dan Reiter Lisa Martin & others I couldn't find on twitter!
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Jessica Weeks retweetledi
Residents of NATO countries are much more likely to support defending Bosnia, Finland, Georgia or Sweden militarily from Russian invasion if the targeted country is a member of NATO, according to a survey of 14K voters in 13 NATO countries. In PNAS Nexus: ow.ly/gZjH50Pgbp0
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Jessica Weeks retweetledi
Putin is a war criminal who deserves to face justice - but threatening to prosecute him is also risky. My new @monkeycageblog piece with @ProfDownes: washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
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@JeffDColgan @SevaUT I’m sure that I’m partially blinded by confirmation bias, but still… I mean…
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looks like the FSB provided terrible intel on Ukraine because they were worried about angering the boss and told Putin exactly what he wanted to hear. an *extremely* common dysfunction of personalist regimes
Meduza in English@meduza_en
Putin is reportedly cracking down on the FSB agency that botched Russia’s Ukraine prep. For Meduza, @AndreiSoldatov and @irinaborogan tell the story behind this bad intelligence. meduza.io/en/feature/202…
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@ProfPaulPoast I’m sure you’ve seen this but I just re-read today (will be curious about you think about Hill’s “yes” to your question) politico.com/news/magazine/…
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Tomorrow's 🧵: despite what Biden says 👇, are we already in a World War?
President Biden Archived@POTUS46Archive
I want to be clear: We will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full might of a united and galvanized NATO. But we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III. And something we must strive to prevent.
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Likewise w this very interesting piece: washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/0…
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This is v interesting, but doesn't answer key question of who wd replace Putin. The lack of a clear successor is a key problem w any overthrow scenario (and is indeed Putin's design). As @yoshikoherrera has pointed out, Russians don't want to go back to the chaos of the 90s.
The Washington Post@washingtonpost
Perspective: Putin doesn’t fear a coup by oligarchs. But he should fear his fellow spies. wapo.st/3tF2t6I
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Jessica Weeks retweetledi
If you’re hoping that the war in Ukraine will lead to a popular revolution in Russia, here is why it won’t. #StopPutin #StandWithUkraine 1/n
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Jessica Weeks retweetledi
Important thread on coup prospect against Putin.
Based on my JCR research on wartime coups, I will also say that the prospect of coups depends on whether coups come from Putin’s inner circle who are seen as connected to his war decision, or those outside the inner circle. 1/9
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On the other hand, @hgoemans work about gambling for resurrection weighs heavily on my mind... My work finds that historically, only about 30% of personalists were punished for defeat. But I shudder at what could happen if Putin thinks he might end up in that 30%.
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Or, see our books for more gory detail
amazon.com/Dictators-Corn…
amazon.com/Petro-Aggressi…
@JeffDColgan
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Many great insights here, but I think it's hard to make sense of Putin's decisions without taking into account how the domestic political situation (personalism, oil, etc) enables risky decisions and insulates Putin from information & advice he might not want want to hear.
Paul Poast@ProfPaulPoast
I disagree with John Mearsheimer on the causes of the Ukraine-Russian War. Instead, I think...and stay with me on this one... Offensive Realism offers a better explanation. [THREAD]
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