@jmac21090

@HPbasketball They have been 1 seed 3 times but, lost to a team they had no business losing to the firsr time. Last year, they were not a dominant playoff team either. If they go like 16-1 this year then maybe? But, defensive elite teams are always seen as less elite than offensive ones imo

I'm really interested by the idea that the Thunder are, objectively, an All-Time team. Wins. Point Differential. Defense. Defense with Offensive Capability. Led by MVP. Depth. Coaching. Culture. Execution. But they do not feel like the all-time great teams *to me* and I do not know why. (Thunder fans, I get they fell like that to you and that people SHOULD view them that way. Read the first part again.) If you're not a Thunder fan, does OKC feel like an all-time great team on par with Warriors 2016, 2017, or say, Heat 2012 (who were objectively much worse than OKC), OKC 2014, 01 Lakers, etc? If not, why not?

@AJ3Jazz I think he is a fit at the 2 but not at the 1. Offensively he can play a movement shooter role/attack from the off-ball movement Will likes. Defensively, it is just whether you think he will put the work in to get heavier and stronger? If he does, then he will be fine there too

Do you think Keaton Wagler is a good fit for Will Hardy and the Jazz? I think he’s talented enough, and Hardy is creative enough to make it work, but not sure it’s as clean as you’d think.

@draymottishaw I didn't really think he was a PG but I thought his comp was more of a Ant or DM type than the movement shooter he was this year. If athletically, he is back to more of that then is that a role you think is as replaceable as well? And how to value that possibility?

@draymottishaw I think there's a couple of questions. Obviously, I won't be seeing medical info but what, if any, effects did that have on DPs playstyle either physically or psychologically? Because, he visibly looked less athletic than in HS/previous USA comps.

I have a few more thoughts on Darryn Peterson, and I don't want to overstate my qualms with his play, but based on my research (and others'), I really do believe that his archetype is one that is rather replaceable. As others and I have expressed all draft cycle long, he has the profile of somebody who is best utilized off the ball as a movement shooter — typically, low TO%, lower ast%, with high 3PT volume is a baseline indicator of this, for me. However, I find it fascinating that Darryn can sustain this much usage, along with the high 3pt rate, and unassisted rates (relative to other off-ball players) while still being very TOV averse. This still does not answer the question, which I don't believe should be much of a question at all, but is this somebody that teams should (primarily) be running an offense through? My research would suggest that the answer is no. (See image below for just a small snippet of the research) I do not want this to imply that Darryn cannot be an effective player; I want this to imply that the ideology and expected utilization of DP should be mentally reformed & thought of on a smaller scale for the better good of NBA team success rather than individual production. There is still value in being a reliable & effective release valve who can operate at volume when needed. Some of the most fruitful (according to VORP & NBA win shares) and less-utilized players who operated this way, at different points in their career and relative to usage & FGA, were names such as: Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, JJ Redick, J.R. Smith, Danny Green, Wesley Matthews, Eddie Jones, Klay Thompson, Kyle Korver, Devin Vassell, and 2010-11 Thunder James Harden (despite his collegiate production indicating he was entirely capable of running an elite NBA offense). These are guys who, again at different points in their career, were not primary initiators who dominated team usage. If we scale down DP you can potentially have a high level offensive release valve, but even then, is that not somebody you can scale down with the likes of guys like: Aaron Nesmith, Norman Powell, Jaylon Tyson, Tim Hardaway Jr., KCP, and one of the more effective off-ball players in the past 2 years, Isaiah Joe? The question can go deeper with how good you believe DP's ancillary skills are and how additive he is to the game of basketball. "How much do you value his offensive rebounding and defense?", that could be a factor. However, I choose to believe that either way you look at it, DP is a victim of the archetype. Meaning, he is still very replaceable on a much smaller scale. (The picture below is high usage shot takers with 3pt volume)

@JamJamGuy_ @danclayt0n My personal preference is to just weight the record for multiple years (like 3-5 but im not going to do the math to pick one rn). Eliminate the gap year teams like Indiana this year and give priority to the teams that have been worse for longer like you mentioned

@danclayt0n @jmac21090 There should actually be no lottery at all. The Jazz/Wizards would have already cycled out of tanking with just a reverse order draft. Instead they continue to get jumped and can’t land top talent and have to tank again.

Very thoughtful article. Also, imagine seeing this graph & concluding that the smart thing is to make it /harder/ for the teams below that line to get talent. The NBA is proposing reforms that will only widen that gulf. (It will be a fun little metaphor for the global economy)

@JamJamGuy_ @danclayt0n Nah that would make the tanking game absolutely hideous. Teams would be going 3-79 to guarantee a number 1 pick

@danclayt0n Flattened odds doesn't make it impossible though. Just means which bad team improves is more random. The proposed options aren't my favorite fixes either but I don't think it was awful for the league that Cooper went to Dal over UTA/WAS and I'm a Jazz fan

@jmac21090 Sure, but this is a zero-sum league. There are 1,280 wins to go around, so as long as there are 50-60 win teams there will by definition be 15-25 win teams. Any changes that make it impossible for bad teams to improve will hurt the health of the league in the long run.

@draymottishaw Even in March...he's basically a 190 lb power forward on 56% TS so yea I'm with you on this one. I'd love him to be good and hopefully he succeeds but he's playing like a 4 and needs about 40 more pounds without losing any quickness to stick there.

@pointmadebball I guess we're acting like he's good now.

Remember how many people chalked Cody Williams up as a bust despite not even having finished his rookie year? Well, over his last 10 GP, Cody averages 17.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on 50% shooting That’s why you gives young guys time to grow

@BigHoneyMVP @SwipaCam Yep. Seems like that would lead to him having to do more on defense due to blow-bys of worse perimeter defenders. more contests at the rim/stocks/deflections and not less

@jmac21090 @SwipaCam You know he's played a majority of the season without 2-3 of the best defensive players on his roster and his stats are barely down right

Nikola Jokic is leading the #1 offense in the NBA by A LOT and consequently the next four players in offensive net rating all play WITH Jokic… The next closest non-Nugget player is Devin Vassell at 121.6. I just think people are willfully being ignorant about Jokic’s season.

@BigHoneyMVP @SwipaCam Not gonna pay for EPM/other analytic comparisons but from relatively simple stats: His stocks are down, he's averaging about a deflection less per game, challenging less shots at the rim, and fouling more. Can pull a lot of that from databallr if you want

@jmac21090 @SwipaCam What evidence do you have to support Jokic being worse than usual on defense this year

@AndrewDBailey @samesfandiari @lightyrspod I wouldn't have CP in same tier as Malone Barkley Harden. I'm pretty sure (not 100%) that I wouldnt have him over Stockton in the PG rankings so cant have him over Stockton here either.

As soon as I sent that response, I thought, "Oh crap, it might be Chris Paul." It's probably just a matter of personal preference between those three, but I think Barkley being a little less ball dominant and easier to fit onto different teams would be one point. I haven't dug into this, but I'd probably take his defense over Harden's. And he was the alpha on a team that made it to the Finals (and of course ran into Michael Jordan).

Question we were randomly musing on @lightyrspod : Is James harden the best player in nba history to not win a title?

@samesfandiari @AndrewDBailey @lightyrspod Malone is above him. Bad person obviously but 2 MVPs to 1. 9 top5 MVP finishes to 6 etc. Barkley and Harden are pretty close. Accolades-wise they're similar. Efficiency similar too. Harden 34-10-8 per 100 Barkley 30-5-16. Ultimately just think Barkley better defender takes it.

@AndrewDBailey @lightyrspod whats your argument for chuck over harden? I agree those are the two i think of first.. followed by malone, CP3

@AndyGlockner European soccer has its own problems too. Im a fan of soccer don't get me wrong and sure there isn't tanking. But I'm not sure I'd trade a lack of tanking for a lack of parity

@HPbasketball Relegation would fix it...lol But if simplicity matters, just weight it with the records over 4-5 years instead of 1. Maybe some owners will be willing to be eat it still but having to be awful for many years in a row to get the best odds is going to make the math different

It is not healthy for nearly half the league to be ACTIVELY *trying* to lose by February. It is not healthy for a third of the league to be engineering losses in December with four more months of games. It is not healthy for your lottery system to be so complex you can't explain it in a sentence. It is not healthy for games to be an abject mess between injuries, travel exhaustion, and tanking. It is not healthy for teams to be hoping an 18-year old saves a multi-billion-dollar business before he leaves in free agency anyway even if he IS as good as projected.

@LeifThulin @Tjonesonthenba I get most people like Wagler as a PG but I think his fit is being underrated with Utah. They Key-?-Lauri-JJJ-Walker lineup could really use Wagler as a 2. They need his playmaking and Will's system will help him create the advantages he might struggle to create on his own

@Tjonesonthenba I’ve been saying Burries is a more natural immediate fit than wagler and far ahead of flemings and others behind the top 3. Burries can go!

Best fit is burries best player is probably Wagler

@draymottishaw FWIW Bballref has Ace at 69.5% at the rim which is better then i expected eye test-wise. He will likely be a better ballhandler too but agree he wont get to same frequency as Lauri does with size/strength/explosiveness

@draymottishaw Yea I didnt mean to imply Ace would be identical just that finisher role. Lauri is more straight-line explosive and stronger than Ace is likely to ever be. But I think Ace could make up some of the C&S difference and rim pressure by having a better pull up game.

I guess we're moved by PRA games in March?

@draymottishaw Not to say I think he's going to be all-NBA. But the Jazz are using him like Lauri (his %assisted VERY similar as well as 3PAr) and I do think that Ace growing to be a similarly effective offensive player in that role is on the table.

@draymottishaw He hasn't been good on defense (no one on Utah has) but he's shown some potential there. As a starter (to take out his awful start to year but 52 games) he's 55.7% TS%. Low volume but NBA has him at 41.6% on pullup 3s too.