John Kapolos

@ErisButRacist @selfmaxxer It's obvious that you've really taken the role of the jester close to your heart. I can't begin to fathom the mental confusion you are under in order to be able to shamelessly post such a comment in public.

@johnkapolos @selfmaxxer Are you fucking dumb? The goal is 50%. Unless more and more people voluntarily walk into this scenario, the number never changes. If the entire world is forced into it, then the number required never changes. Do you not know how percentages work?

''I will kill myself because I cannot stand people who won't choose to kill themselves too''. I'll say it again, if you care about people, you want them to vote red, not to gamble with every dumbass out there. If you want your family to vote blue, you are a piece of shit and would rather play with their lives than simply opt out of this nonsensical game by pressing red.

Taking things to extremes is a reasoning exploration technique. It lets you cut through noise and get closer to the reasoning signal. You can do the same by setting 1% as the limit for the blue to win. In both cases, you can identify where the core problem you need to address lies.

@SwordMasterPub Wow. It’s almost like you completely changed the scenario

RE: Red button vs blue button. Change the percentage from 50% to 99%. If 99% of the people press blue, then everyone is saved. If you press red you are saved no matter what. See how that affects your personal decision and the outcome of the poll.

You can disagree about anything, including gravity. That's 100% everyone's right. Doesn't have anything to do with reality, it's indifferent to opinions. I do agree that I've said everything that needed to be said. I need to work more on not repeating myself. Have nice internet journeys.

We’ve gone in a circle. The central midwit band’s width is not explicitly defined, making the point I intended to make. You are insisting that the central band must be mu +/- sigma, because of conventional notations. I disagree and that disagreement doesn’t stem from any lack of understanding of what mu or sigma mean. It’s just irrelevant.

Reading people's justifications for pushing the blue button is actually spiking my cortisol levels If everybody pushes red - nothing happens! So why on earth would anyone press blue? It's a needless gamble, but it's being painted as the altruistic decision for some reason

@KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen It's a very acceptable approximation and the numbers clearly make the intent indisputable.

@johnkapolos @TheLaurenChen If you want to get really pedantic, the image isn’t even a real normal curve: reddit.com/r/dataisbeauti…

In the context of the assertion (which is of course arbitrary and clearly biased), the mids get over 50% and then by means of results, the smarts were stupid to die by voting the losing blue position. That's the irony, and of course that people try to use this meme in an attempt to feel of superior inyelligence while incapable to get the obvious error.

The point the image is making, and the meaning most are taking away from it, is that there are a large number of people of medium intelligence who are not quite smart enough to play out the game with mental simulations of sufficient depth to realize that blue is the rational or moral choice. There is also a group of individuals operating irrationally, unintentionally, or from heuristics rather than formal reasoning who will pick blue. The central hump of the curve conveys “a lot,” while the positions along the line convey intelligence levels. Deeper interpretation of the normal distribution and the use of the sigma convention (as you conceded by implication is merely notational) is entirely orthogonal.

The whole point is that the point is false. The image can't be updated and keep the same meaning in a way that's true. I do agree that most people were not able to realize it (another similar but huge comment thread popped in my feed later on). This isn't some hill people need to take personally though.

@johnkapolos @TheLaurenChen I concede the point you're making, but I also think it's extremely pedantic. The marginal effort required to update the image enough to shield it from such pedantry isn't worth it, as most people got the point.

@CassidyAWaters @KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen Cassidy, you had to use AI to write a comment. Do you think you are in any shape qualified to have an opinion in matters of intelligence?

John, you are living proof of the meme’s premise. The meme works because the overconfident middle (the ones loudly defending red) keep inventing elaborate, punitive justifications for a strategy that only makes sense if you assume everyone will follow the same logic. Polling has already proven that assumption false. The moment you accept that a meaningful portion of people will press blue, pressing red stops being the “rational” choice and becomes the option that knowingly risks dooming those who thought differently. That’s why the bell curve lands so cleanly: it takes the actual polling split and forces it into the familiar outline of a standard normal distribution, complete with invented standard deviations and variation labels, to show how both the lowest and highest intelligence groups converge on the cooperative answer while the smug middle overthinks its way into moral superiority. Your position may be logically sound in isolation, but it is strategically fragile and socially short-sighted.

@KuroSekaiAnime On the contrary. A 60/40 on a poll where there are absilutely no consequences is too close and implies that in a "real" situation hitting blue is a massive risk.

We got enough blue people with sympathy in thus example so it proves my point that blue is the most humane option.

Let me break this down >People will press blue >its inevitable >Pushing red sacrifices these people but saves you >clicking blue saves everyone with risk > 50% is a small requirement > So as many people as possible should press blue to save everyone > clicking red is selfish

@KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen The whole idea of having standard deviations is to use them. Otherwise, there would be no need for the σ. And for the normal distribution used in IQ, the σ is 15. In other words, when it comes to IQ, the sum of the sillies and the smarts is less than the mids.

@johnkapolos @TheLaurenChen I reject the premise that image implies that the midwit must fully occupy the range of mu +/- sigma.

@KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen Sorry for the typos

@KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen The numbers are literally in the image even if you don't understand the mathematics of the normal probably distribution. The "fixed" image in that post is simply not an IQ distribution, making the meme invalid.

@KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen The middle zone for IQ are those 2 standard deviations around the μ. One goes from 85 to 100 and the other from 100 to 115. As you can see, each one is 34% of the population for a grand total of 68%.

@johnkapolos @TheLaurenChen And what band in that distribution, pray tell, is meant to correspond to the midwit meme guy in the image? Is it defined?

@KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen It's literally the normal distribution graph used for IQ. It's a super specific thing, with a μ of 100 and an σ of 15.

@johnkapolos @TheLaurenChen Read other comments. That’s not how graphs like this are interpreted. They’re intentionally underspecified. An individual's position in the chart gives no indication of how many there are, since variance bands aren’t given.

@KrishanuAR @TheLaurenChen Notice that the reds win in your graph and the blue one die off, thereby making the reds effectively the smartest.

@nntaleb @trd0070 Mathematics isn't about vibes but for rigor. Maybe spending time honing the basics is an actual prerequisite for not being ridiculed.

@trd0070 Not a proper function --except by using Shwarz distribution.

People in finance must be able to figure it out. Also: find alternative functions delivering the same.

@itsrobhimself @PelicanProducts This is amazing!

Getting ready to travel to 3 countries over the next 6 months, but needed my 3D Design/Rendering station and couldn’t risk checking in 10k worth of fragile equipment. So i built a liquid cooled #Threadripper + #RTX4090 system into a @PelicanProducts Air 1535 carry on case.

I've noticed that lots of people think that sloppy codebases are an AI era phenomenon. I can only attribute that to the follies of youth. Nightmare codebases have always been a thing. Ask any middle-aged dev to tell you how many times they joined a project and thought "wow, how awesome this code is!" ;)

@JoseEspinola96 @OrwellNGoode 30 years young.

@OrwellNGoode Soy paraguayo. Sali a las 22hs a comprar algo que comer y a dar una vuelta con el auto, a las 24hs mi mama me llama para saber porque no llego a casa aun. Tengo 30 años

@paulg So the trick to never fail is to keep increasing the window.

Something I taught 14 yo: Most progress is a mix of steps forward and steps back, just with with more of the former. But you can get a run of steps back. So to judge progress accurately you need to use a big enough window, or it could look like you're failing.