Johnson

@grant_melson @TeslaBoomerMama Well said! Tesla must appreciate first before we consider merging.

Wanting a SpaceX merger is incompatible with believing “robotaxi will lead to the biggest step change in value in history.” @TeslaBoomerMama if you truly care for the Tesla retail community, please consider this. There are many others cheering the spacex merger as well

Well said! I think it makes total sense for SpaceX to trade publicly for 12 months first, so we can properly justify its real value, since it’s never been publicly traded before. It’s fine for SpaceX to target a $2T (or whatever) market cap to raise money during the IPO. But it doesn’t make sense for Tesla to merge with SpaceX right after the IPO before SpaceX’s price has stabilized. I don’t doubt SpaceX’s value at all, but at the same time I believe Tesla is massively undervalued right now. What if SpaceX turns out to be really good and everything big is about to happen, but the market doesn’t buy it and SpaceX only ends up being worth $1T (or less) at some point after the IPO? Should Tesla merge at that price? This is exactly how I feel about Tesla right now. With the imminent Robotaxi rollout, I don’t think Tesla is only worth $1.4T. However, that’s how the public market is pricing it, and that’s tough. So the only fair way is if SpaceX gets valued on the same standard (i.e. after it’s been publicly traded for a while) before we justify a merger.

Correct me if I’m wrong, your entire synergy case assumes SpaceX is fairly valued at $1.75T AND that the combined entity delivers more per Tesla share than standalone Tesla would. But SpaceX has never traded publicly. That $1.75T is an IPO target, not market-tested price discovery. You’re asking Tesla shareholders to exchange a decade of proven execution for a projection. The governance friction is real, but it’s Elon’s structural problem from running competing entities. Tesla shareholders didn’t create it. We shouldn’t pay for it with dilution. TERAFAB friction? That’s a 2028-2030 problem. Robotaxi and Optimus scale before that bottleneck hits. You’re using a future problem to justify diluting shareholders today. Let SpaceX trade 12 months publicly. Then negotiate with real numbers. Too soon to talk about this “merging”

Tesla and SpaceX - Should They Merge? I'm responding to @grant_melson post and his discussion with @TeslaBoomerMama - bringing it here so that more people see it and can join in on the discussion. Both companies have several "step changes" in their pipeline. For Tesla it's Robotaxi, then Optimus and perhaps Digital Optimus (btw, none of which are fully featured without Grok/Xai, and Starlink in many situations). Tesla is joined at the hip with SpaceX already. For SpaceX it's Starlink (a far bigger and more immediate opportunity than most think - just ask @aaronburnett) and Starship (SpaceX's "Robotaxi"). The cross pollination between the two companies is too numerous to name here. Then they jointly benefit from TERAFAB and the scaling that it allows - a huge quantity of chips for Optimus and for orbital data centers. If this doesn't happen Tesla will be severely chip and inference compute constrained. Only investors who are focused on the short-term worry about the potential short-term dilution that merging with SpaceX brings. The implicit assumption with this line of thinking is that SpaceX is overvalued. What happens if it's not? What happens if SpaceX is really worth a few trillion more? Again, listen to @aaronburnett, @TeslaLarry and @pbeisel. What happens if Robotaxi adds a trillion to Tesla's valuation, but SpaceX gains two trillion in the meantime? Or some other amount, but where SpaceX gains more. The problem with valuation arguments is that they are subjective. There are people that feel Tesla is massively undervalued (I put myself in that camp) and others think that SpaceX is more valuable. Reasonable people can disagree on valuation. That said, once SpaceX is a public company (and the index additions and lock-ups are behind us), then at least we will have an apples-to-apples valuation comparison - as both will be valued in the public market on the same terms. However, in my view, investors who are focused on the long-term will welcome a merger - as the opportunity for the combined company is greater than two separate entities. Just look at what Elon said this week on the Q1 earnings call when asked about TERAFAB - the challenges of making sure both sets of shareholders is slowing things down - it's a clear frustration for him. It's a massive unforced error to tie Elon's hands. Why put unnecessary hurdles in front of him in the name of protecting shareholders? These companies should merge - and probably sooner than later. Let the man build unencumbered! And for those that might think that Elon is somehow slow rolling Robotaxi so that SpaceX can acquire the company on the cheap - if you don't believe that Elon always acts in your best interests (as he's required to do), you should sell your Tesla stock and move on to another company/CEO that you trust.

Totally agree! Tesla is massively undervalued at the moment, and there’s absolutely no reason to think about a merger before Robotaxi really takes off at scale. I think over the next 1 to 3 years, Tesla’s share price could easily surge to $2,000 as long as there’s no merger that dilutes existing shareholders.

Some of us have been investing in the $TSLA vision of robotaxi since 2016 (or before). “The greatest asset value increase overnight with a software download.” - Elon We’ve patiently supported and sown as Tesla solved an incredibly hard problem, with the promise of an incredibly valuable business. I believe the value of TSLA is at least $1,500/sh based on what we’ve built. All that’s required is to scale it. Now the specter of getting bought out by SpaceX puts a clock on that value recognition. If Tesla can’t realize their 10 year vision and reap the value creation before getting bought out, shareholders will lose half or more of that value recognition through dilution. For Elon, he must get SpaceX IPO done quickly before Tesla gets way too expensive. There’s no way SpaceX could buy a $5T Tesla. For SpaceX to be the buying company (and the dual class share structure to be the final structure), they must act before Tesla runs away. Unfortunately this perverts the incentives. The best thing for SpaceX (Elon) is for Tesla (Elon) to slow-roll robotaxi until SpaceX can buy them. It may be inevitable now based on the disclosures during the call yesterday. I’m just trying to illuminate the probable path for people who can’t see it yet. If Elon asks you to sell your shares to SpaceX for less than $1,500/share, you’ll know what happened. Influencers will try to tell you this is for the best. What it actually means is that you will get 50% or less of the value recognition due to dilution, and SpaceX shareholders get the rest. My position is simple. Tesla shareholders deserve to see the realization of the value creation of the business we’ve invested in for 10 years. $5T should do it. Tesla is undervalued. Then we can talk about merging with SpaceX. I say this as a Tesla and SpaceX shareholder. I’m going to get robotaxi profits either way. I’m saying all this looking out for retail investors who didn’t get the change to buy SpaceX in 2021. SpaceX has 10x for me since then. TSLA has done nothing. It’s time to scale robotaxi and for Tesla shareholders to reap.

@cavemanmatt @WOLF_Financial Agreed! Tesla is massively undervalued at the current $1.4T market cap.

@WOLF_Financial As a Tesla Shareholder I would be extremely disappointed if Tesla was only valued at 1.4T. With Robotaxi and Optimus it will be worth a lot more in a few years. While I do want Tesla and SpaceX to merge they should do so with Tesla at a substantially higher valuation or wait.

DAN IVES THINKS SPACEX AND TESLA ARE GOING TO MERGE His reasoning: At $1.75T, SpaceX and $TSLA at $1.4T would be a roughly even deal. It gets Musk past 25% voting control of Tesla. And it ties together autonomous, robotics, AI, and space into one company. "That's really what Tesla's story is going to be about." We also talked about: - Anthropic will have to acquire a software company to crack enterprise - Microsoft sentiment at COVID lows - Why AI crushing cybersecurity is a "fairy tale"

I’m firmly against any merger before Robotaxi has a massive rollout. Tesla is clearly undervalued at the moment. Once Robotaxi really takes off, the share price should easily rally from around $400 to over $2,000. That’s when a merger would make sense and feel fair for Tesla shareholders. We’ve waited this long already, no reason to take a tiny merger premium and get diluted just before the big upside hits

🟰 Merger of Equals Enjoy 🚀

@_st0012 對呀剛到 等明後天做完PCR就可以去打疫苗了💪

@johnsonzhan121 你應該剛到吧？

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The following talk in 1003 is "Unplugging the Web with Elixir " by @@christopheradam. Christopher is the maintainer of the community-driven Elixir Style Guide. He'll take us to explore alternative patterns and architectural styles that can be used productively in Elixir web dev.