Jon Arnell retweetledi
"The earnings outlook is more dependent on a few stocks than ever before" --BofA
the top 5 cos make up around a quarter of S&P 500 earnings
English
Jon Arnell
3.8K posts
Jon Arnell
@jon_arnell
Chief Investment Officer på von Euler & Partners en del av Säkra. I marknaden sedan 2004. Fokus global tillgångsallokering. Tidigare aktieanalys och trading.
Stockholm, Sverige Katılım Şubat 2015
191 Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
Jon Arnell retweetledi
🇺🇸 S&P 500
The market used to be a mirror. Now it's a loudspeaker. Ten mega-caps drive 40% of the S&P 500, lifting valuations and amplifying every move. It feels fine on the way up. Painful in selloffs
👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500
@GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity
English
Jon Arnell retweetledi
Goldman's Risk Appetite indicator remains near the highest since early 2021
English
Jon Arnell retweetledi
🚨 LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER IS OFFICIALLY BETTING BILLIONS THAT THE AI HARDWARE BOOM HAS PEAKED.
The exOpenAI researcher who was fired for warning that China could steal their AI models then turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months just filed his Q1 2026 13F with the SEC.
One quarter ago he had $5.5 billion in disclosed equity exposure. As of March 31, 2026 that number is $13.67 billion. The portfolio nearly tripled in a single quarter across 42 positions.
He initiated $7.46 billion in put options against every major semiconductor company between January 1 and March 31, 2026.
None of these positions existed in his Q4 2025 filing.
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF PUT: $2.04 billion
- Nvidia PUT: $1.57 billion
- Oracle PUT: $1.07 billion
- Broadcom PUT: $1.01 billion
- AMD PUT: $969 million
- Micron PUT: $583 million
- Taiwan Semiconductor PUT: $535 million
- ASML PUT: $494 million
- Intel PUT: $159 million
For the past 18 months Aschenbrenner was betting only on electricity, memory, compute, and physical data center infrastructure. That made him one of the best performing fund managers in the world. And his long stock book still reflects that exact same thesis.
- Bloom Energy: $878 million
- SanDisk: $724 million
- CoreWeave: $556 million
- IREN: $401 million
- Core Scientific: $389 million
- Applied Digital: $320 million
- Riot Platforms: $142 million
- CleanSpark: $104 million
- Solaris Energy: $62 million
- T1 Energy: $43 million
- Bitfarms: $38 million
- Bitdeer: $29 million
- Power Solutions: $26 million
- WhiteFiber: $20 million
- Babcock and Wilcox: $19 million
- SharonAI: $18 million
- ProPetro: $13 million
- Hive Digital: $6 million
He is also running call options on specific names at the same time as his puts, which means he is not simply betting against semiconductors everywhere.
- Micron CALL: $422 million
- SanDisk CALL: $388 million
- Taiwan Semiconductor CALL: $354 million
- CoreWeave CALL: $140 million
- Bloom Energy CALL: $55 million
This means he believes the companies supplying power, storage, and compute to the AI industry still have years of growth ahead of them.
But the chip companies that Wall Street has been buying for the past two years at record valuations have already priced in everything good that is going to happen to them.
The man who has been right about every major AI trade for the past 18 months is now betting that the biggest names in semiconductors are about to fall.
If his track record means anything, the chip stocks Wall Street has been buying for the past two years may be in serious trouble.
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Jon Arnell retweetledi
The rolling 30-day correlation between stocks and the 10y Treasury yield remains deeply negative and is at its lowest since September 1999
English
Jon Arnell retweetledi
The explosion of agentic AI and compute shortages are pushing up prices: Average LLM token costs are now $2.12/mil tokens,+12% this week alone and +65% since end of Feb.
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Jon Arnell retweetledi
Well that didn't take too long.
Hedge funds are back to being super duper irresponsibly long tech stocks.
This while there's a huge chase of $SPX calls and tech stock calls by other participants.
Just about everybody's long now in a few crowded trades.
Should be fun. 🍿
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Jon Arnell retweetledi
When you strip out food, energy and trade, US producer prices surged the most in April in five years on a year over year basis.
English
Jon Arnell retweetledi
Businesses probably won't automate most tasks that have “AI Exposure" because it's cheaper to keep humans doing them, at least for now: new research, h/t Apollo's Torsten Slok. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
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Jon Arnell retweetledi
On Friday a record-breaking $2.6 trillion of $SPX notional call volume traded.
This is what an incredibly aggressive chase dynamic looks like.
I'm not saying that this means we're going to have a crash.
But it does amplify risk when there's no real fear.
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Under H2 öppnar sundet enligt Goldman undersökning bland investerare #finanstwitter
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
HORMUZ DISRUPTION TO LAST INTO H2: GOLDMAN POLL A Goldman Sachs survey of 837 investors shows growing expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will remain disrupted well into the second half of the year. • Most see disruption beyond June • 43% expect normalization only after July • Brent forecast clustered at $80–$90/bbl The outlook reflects stalled U.S.–Iran talks and fears of a prolonged supply shock in a key global oil route. Investors are also positioning for “short oil” if flows recover.
Svenska
Jon Arnell retweetledi
NFP kommer för andra månaden i rad in högre än förväntat. Är det en stabilisering av tidigare nedåt gående trend vi ser? Oklart, och frågan är vilken påverkan konflikten får framåt på anställningsplaner osv. #finanstwitter
Svenska
Historiska koncentrationer i marknaden #finanstwitter
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi
AI bubble watch. BofA Hartnett
Dansk
Jon Arnell retweetledi
Bye bye Big Tech buybacks.
Says Goldman Sachs:
"The hyperscalers now allocate 20% of total spending to buybacks and dividends compared with an average of 34% from 2017-2022. We expect minimal hyperscaler buyback growth through 2027. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler capex amounting to 100% of cash flows from operations this year, which in turn leaves little room to return cash to shareholders without a sharp deceleration in capex growth, a large drawdown of cash balances, or a major increase in debt. Some of the buyback headwind from the hyperscalers will likely be offset by increased buyback activity among the beneficiaries of that capex, such as semiconductor firms."
English
Jon Arnell retweetledi
Väl värt att lyssna på denna intervju #finanstwitter
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag
Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."
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