@jeffye888 JEFF IS BACK BABY!!!
Really excellent article. Thanks Jeff!
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Jonathan Stern
576 posts
Most of this is false
I stepped away briefly for personal reasons -- nothing to do with Hims. I'm back now and working to make Hims House sustainable while expanding the model to other companies
I didn't "start an Opendoor community." I recorded a few podcasts with early employees, long-time shareholders, and a prominent bear because I own Opendoor and wanted to learn more
I blocked captaincrunch because he was an unrepentant troll for 2-3 straight months
Anyway, I enjoyed our pod and know many others did too. Merry Christmas and hope our paths cross sometime in the new year
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You know, when the founder of that community left, it immediately gave me horrible vibes. I went on their podcast, discussed the company, heard their pitch…then the guy who starts it leaves a month later? Wtf? What type of community is that if you can’t stay when the stock goes against you?
And then he started another community right after for Opendoor? Very bad vibes.
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The ShillHouse has blocked me.
Pumpers hate when you called them out.
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$HIMS
Hims House is back. I am coming out of retirement!
As much as I tried to step away, in the end I couldn't. I care too much about the future of $HIMS and Hims House, and there's so much more I want to build.
Along these lines, I am raising a small amount of money: near-term priorities are getting an office and hiring a few exceptional people who want to help scale the "house model" across other stocks. (Will say more in the coming days.)
Also, I am looking for sponsors. If you want your brand featured on the Hims House podcast - or other shows we might launch soon - please reach out!
Finally, a huge thank you to the dozens of people who reached out over the last 7 weeks to discuss the future of Hims House. Hearing you guys talk about how much you love (and miss) HH was the reminder I needed - and a big part of why I'm back.
My conviction hasn't changed. "We need better media companies in finance. The current landscape disadvantages retail investors, and it's slow and unfun." My goal is to build the best possible version of an internet-native financial media company, and I'm excited to get to work. DMs are open if you want to help build this.
$HIMS to 100.
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US News Ranking / Unicorn Ranking... princeton lags, berklely, stanford & michigan crush.
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@jonathanrstern Congratulations on persevering! I represent a CEO who would be an excellent guest, has strong ties to HIMs and played a critical role in catapulting its recent success. How do we get in touch with your team to submit?
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Last September, I emailed dozens of people to see if they wanted to partner on a $HIMS-focused podcast. All declined except Louis Stevens and Dr. H. Hims House would not exist without you two - thank you for believing in this from day one.
A huge thank you as well to @BaysideGrowth. For months now, Bayside has been running laps around investment bankers and sell-side analysts. He's predicted what they missed, read the documents they skipped, and interpreted the laws as they are - not as we'd like them to be. Hims House's latest chapter wouldn't have been possible without him.
🐐🐐🐐
Jonathan Stern@jonathanrstern
$HIMS Today is my last day working full-time on Hims House. I'll share more in the future about why now is the right time to step away. But for the moment, I just want to say thank you to everyone who's supported the project over the past year. When I started Hims House, I was living in a basement in a San Francisco hacker house. I didn't set out to build a media company. I simply had a position in $HIMS and wanted: - alt data to know how Hims was performing before earnings - a podcast, newsletter, & twitter account dedicated to covering the stories CNBC/Bloomberg missed - and a community to fill in the blanks and challenge my thesis I had no idea I'd get to talk to Mark Cuban, Martin Shkreli, and Andrew Dudum. Or that a few of my tweets would move the market by hundreds of millions of dollars. Or that hedge funds would listen to our podcasts and DM me - a software engineer with zero finance industry experience - wanting my perspective on the stock. It's been a fun 12 months. My original vision was to build a "neighborhood of houses" - each one a deep, hyper-focused community around a single stock. The Hims House model clearly works, but it's ops intensive, and I never cracked how to scale it beyond just Hims. That said, my conviction hasn't changed: we need better media companies in finance. The current landscape disadvantages retail investors, and it's slow and unfun. I still believe there are ways to fix this, and I'd love to play a role - maybe that means raising some money / building a team and launching other projects in the months ahead. TBD. As for what's next with Hims House: I am going to wind down the Substack and am planning to tweet less. How much less... we'll see. I might continue the podcast and am exploring finding a couple long-term sponsors. The discord will stay open. Mostly, I just want to say thank you (even to the grumpy, miserable bears) for making the last 12 months so much fun. Especially the discord. As unhinged as some of you are, you've never stopped being a source of laughter and learning. Thank you for everything. When Hims House launched, $HIMS was $16/share. Today, we're pushing up on $60. Nearly 4x. And just to get ahead of the idea that I am bowing out because I have turned bearish: I have not sold a single share of $HIMS since starting Hims House. My position today is bigger than ever. $HIMS to $100.
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One last point on this whole AI bubble debate.
And I’m going to do a bit of glazing so apologies.
A common pushback on continuation of scaling laws is that the frontier-lab researchers are likely lying re model progress.
I put the probability of them doing so as a group at incredibly low odds.
I suspect that the cynicism towards the researchers who get on podcasts like Dwarkesh is rooted in most people’s typical experience in their personal lives with intelligent people who are often adept at twisting the truth to achieve an objective.
Embellish on your resume, lie to your date, hype up your work to your boss.
But the problem is most people know one or two smart people.
130 - 140 IQ, talks a little fast, has pretty good recall, prob studied physics or math, never had to study for tests.
These people for the most part have similar drives as the people around them and lie as frequently.
But most people assume that this is the caliber of person pushing the frontier of research.
It’s not.
Most people haven’t spent significant time with a 150+ IQ person.
Makes sense since most people only ever spend meaningful time with 100 - 200 people over the course of their life while the probability of a person having a 150+ is 1/2.5k and there is a self-selection element that pushes these people into clusters within Cambridge, Berkeley, Manhattan, East Setauket (Rentech), or SF.
And therefore most people don’t appreciate that when a person is that smart they are often incredibly honest by default.
Because lying is something you do when you lack a resource and are attempting to falsely project a quality to undeservedly acquire said resource.
Truly high IQ people (as a group, typically but ofc not always) have never had to truly fight for things the way you and I do.
They don’t view other people as adversaries.
Life is on easy mode.
They know they can make money with little effort. So they have the luxury of being hyper truth seeking.
They also typically aren’t hell bent on wealth accumulation beyond a certain level because ego and status games is the purview of the less intelligent because it’s deeply irrational beyond what you need to pay for a second-hand PJ (chartered ofc), a private island (off Airbnb) or unlimited hookers.
Instead most either fade into nihilism after hitting a certain threshold of wealth or more often they dedicate their lives towards solving interesting problems.
The former route is mostly the domain of entrepreneurs and hedge fund managers.
Fuck you money by 45 and disappear.
To be clear I’d say at most five to ten PMs across the large multi-managers fit into this bucket at any given time. The rest are smart but abso-fucking-lutely in that 130-140 band and no higher. Ken Griffen included.
No idea what the density & distribution looks like for the quant world but my guess would be a standard deviation higher.
Now the group that is focused on living a life of solving interesting problems is where you get people like Ilya.
Dude could buy multiple islands and a hair transplant but yet he doesn’t.
Because his adversary isn’t his fellow humans competing for resources…his adversary is the nature of reality and his life goal is to bend it to his will.
The frontier labs have accumulated the highest density of these type of people since the Manhattan Project.
Yes Sam and Elon and Zuck have just as high a probability of lying as your average Joe. But they are ego driven. And they aren’t the highest IQ people in their orgs.
They do play status games. They are competing for finite resources.
But they also aren’t who I have been describing.
I specifically am highlighting the people actually building the models.
The guys who spoke on Dwarkesh two years ago.
Guys like Schulman, Shazeer and Ilya.
And so when you hear these guys tell you scaling laws haven’t hit a wall.
Motherfucking believe them 🫡
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@CraftedP_ @longoption I’m long $HIMS and would never short it even if I turned bearish. Too many potential upside catalysts.
The idea that Hims House was spreading FUD is befitting of your account name: straight propaganda.
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@ManOnThePen Thanks so much, Dave. It’s been a treat to follow your work at OTP and learn from you these last several months. Kudos to you as well on everything you’ve built ,and I’m hopeful our paths will cross again very soon.
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Being a “doer” requires sacrifice, it requires putting yourself out there and risking failure, despite oftentimes feeling ill equipped to do so.
Regardless of your thoughts RE: $HIMS what Jonathan built in a short time is not just impressive, it is truly admirable. I know firsthand the sacrifices one makes to build something that hasn’t been done before.
Kudos to you, Jonathan. Whatever you do next, I hope you’ll bring us all along for the journey.
Jonathan Stern@jonathanrstern
$HIMS Today is my last day working full-time on Hims House. I'll share more in the future about why now is the right time to step away. But for the moment, I just want to say thank you to everyone who's supported the project over the past year. When I started Hims House, I was living in a basement in a San Francisco hacker house. I didn't set out to build a media company. I simply had a position in $HIMS and wanted: - alt data to know how Hims was performing before earnings - a podcast, newsletter, & twitter account dedicated to covering the stories CNBC/Bloomberg missed - and a community to fill in the blanks and challenge my thesis I had no idea I'd get to talk to Mark Cuban, Martin Shkreli, and Andrew Dudum. Or that a few of my tweets would move the market by hundreds of millions of dollars. Or that hedge funds would listen to our podcasts and DM me - a software engineer with zero finance industry experience - wanting my perspective on the stock. It's been a fun 12 months. My original vision was to build a "neighborhood of houses" - each one a deep, hyper-focused community around a single stock. The Hims House model clearly works, but it's ops intensive, and I never cracked how to scale it beyond just Hims. That said, my conviction hasn't changed: we need better media companies in finance. The current landscape disadvantages retail investors, and it's slow and unfun. I still believe there are ways to fix this, and I'd love to play a role - maybe that means raising some money / building a team and launching other projects in the months ahead. TBD. As for what's next with Hims House: I am going to wind down the Substack and am planning to tweet less. How much less... we'll see. I might continue the podcast and am exploring finding a couple long-term sponsors. The discord will stay open. Mostly, I just want to say thank you (even to the grumpy, miserable bears) for making the last 12 months so much fun. Especially the discord. As unhinged as some of you are, you've never stopped being a source of laughter and learning. Thank you for everything. When Hims House launched, $HIMS was $16/share. Today, we're pushing up on $60. Nearly 4x. And just to get ahead of the idea that I am bowing out because I have turned bearish: I have not sold a single share of $HIMS since starting Hims House. My position today is bigger than ever. $HIMS to $100.
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@NighthawkTradez @himshouse Thank you for everything you’ve done to support me and the community. I may have helped make Hims House a valuable resource, but you made it a party.
Thanks for everything Nighthawk. $HIMS to $100.
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As a member of @himshouse since early 2025, I’ve been blown away by what @jonathanrstern built.
He did what most never do: took an idea and ran with it.
He turned @himshouse into a pivotal resource for $HIMS investors (myself included).
I’m proud of what you built, brother.
Whatever’s next, I’m in. 🫡
$HIMS to $100
Jonathan Stern@jonathanrstern
$HIMS Today is my last day working full-time on Hims House. I'll share more in the future about why now is the right time to step away. But for the moment, I just want to say thank you to everyone who's supported the project over the past year. When I started Hims House, I was living in a basement in a San Francisco hacker house. I didn't set out to build a media company. I simply had a position in $HIMS and wanted: - alt data to know how Hims was performing before earnings - a podcast, newsletter, & twitter account dedicated to covering the stories CNBC/Bloomberg missed - and a community to fill in the blanks and challenge my thesis I had no idea I'd get to talk to Mark Cuban, Martin Shkreli, and Andrew Dudum. Or that a few of my tweets would move the market by hundreds of millions of dollars. Or that hedge funds would listen to our podcasts and DM me - a software engineer with zero finance industry experience - wanting my perspective on the stock. It's been a fun 12 months. My original vision was to build a "neighborhood of houses" - each one a deep, hyper-focused community around a single stock. The Hims House model clearly works, but it's ops intensive, and I never cracked how to scale it beyond just Hims. That said, my conviction hasn't changed: we need better media companies in finance. The current landscape disadvantages retail investors, and it's slow and unfun. I still believe there are ways to fix this, and I'd love to play a role - maybe that means raising some money / building a team and launching other projects in the months ahead. TBD. As for what's next with Hims House: I am going to wind down the Substack and am planning to tweet less. How much less... we'll see. I might continue the podcast and am exploring finding a couple long-term sponsors. The discord will stay open. Mostly, I just want to say thank you (even to the grumpy, miserable bears) for making the last 12 months so much fun. Especially the discord. As unhinged as some of you are, you've never stopped being a source of laughter and learning. Thank you for everything. When Hims House launched, $HIMS was $16/share. Today, we're pushing up on $60. Nearly 4x. And just to get ahead of the idea that I am bowing out because I have turned bearish: I have not sold a single share of $HIMS since starting Hims House. My position today is bigger than ever. $HIMS to $100.
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@thekiwikapital @himshouse Thank you so much, Kiwi Kap.
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What you built with @himshouse is one of the best communities of retail-investors out there.
You turned a single stock conviction into a full-blown ecosystem of deep analysis, debates, and media that consistently outperformed the mainstream. The fact that hedge funds, billionaires, and CEOs were tuning in says everything.
Thank you for pushing the conversation forward and making the last year of following $HIMS so much more fun and insightful.
Massive respect and excited to see what you build next. 🫡🔥
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$HIMS
Today is my last day working full-time on Hims House.
I'll share more in the future about why now is the right time to step away. But for the moment, I just want to say thank you to everyone who's supported the project over the past year.
When I started Hims House, I was living in a basement in a San Francisco hacker house. I didn't set out to build a media company. I simply had a position in $HIMS and wanted:
- alt data to know how Hims was performing before earnings
- a podcast, newsletter, & twitter account dedicated to covering the stories CNBC/Bloomberg missed
- and a community to fill in the blanks and challenge my thesis
I had no idea I'd get to talk to Mark Cuban, Martin Shkreli, and Andrew Dudum. Or that a few of my tweets would move the market by hundreds of millions of dollars. Or that hedge funds would listen to our podcasts and DM me - a software engineer with zero finance industry experience - wanting my perspective on the stock.
It's been a fun 12 months.
My original vision was to build a "neighborhood of houses" - each one a deep, hyper-focused community around a single stock. The Hims House model clearly works, but it's ops intensive, and I never cracked how to scale it beyond just Hims.
That said, my conviction hasn't changed: we need better media companies in finance. The current landscape disadvantages retail investors, and it's slow and unfun. I still believe there are ways to fix this, and I'd love to play a role - maybe that means raising some money / building a team and launching other projects in the months ahead. TBD.
As for what's next with Hims House: I am going to wind down the Substack and am planning to tweet less. How much less... we'll see. I might continue the podcast and am exploring finding a couple long-term sponsors. The discord will stay open.
Mostly, I just want to say thank you (even to the grumpy, miserable bears) for making the last 12 months so much fun. Especially the discord. As unhinged as some of you are, you've never stopped being a source of laughter and learning. Thank you for everything.
When Hims House launched, $HIMS was $16/share. Today, we're pushing up on $60. Nearly 4x.
And just to get ahead of the idea that I am bowing out because I have turned bearish: I have not sold a single share of $HIMS since starting Hims House. My position today is bigger than ever.
$HIMS to $100.
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@Raul_DSF @himshouse Thank you so much, Raul. This really means a lot.
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$HIMS
@jonathanrstern pioneered the truly first retail investor driven, democratized, media company @himshouse.
To make it as successful as he did, as fast as he did, with as much integrity as did, is inspiring.
So much so, that he will stand ultimately alone, before all the endless copy cats who will inevitably follow.
"Make visible what, without you, might perhaps never have been seen.” - Robert Bresson
He did that better than every investment bank in the country.
Except their staff count is in the thousands and his is one.
Give the man his flowers.
🐐🐐🐐
Jonathan Stern@jonathanrstern
$HIMS Today is my last day working full-time on Hims House. I'll share more in the future about why now is the right time to step away. But for the moment, I just want to say thank you to everyone who's supported the project over the past year. When I started Hims House, I was living in a basement in a San Francisco hacker house. I didn't set out to build a media company. I simply had a position in $HIMS and wanted: - alt data to know how Hims was performing before earnings - a podcast, newsletter, & twitter account dedicated to covering the stories CNBC/Bloomberg missed - and a community to fill in the blanks and challenge my thesis I had no idea I'd get to talk to Mark Cuban, Martin Shkreli, and Andrew Dudum. Or that a few of my tweets would move the market by hundreds of millions of dollars. Or that hedge funds would listen to our podcasts and DM me - a software engineer with zero finance industry experience - wanting my perspective on the stock. It's been a fun 12 months. My original vision was to build a "neighborhood of houses" - each one a deep, hyper-focused community around a single stock. The Hims House model clearly works, but it's ops intensive, and I never cracked how to scale it beyond just Hims. That said, my conviction hasn't changed: we need better media companies in finance. The current landscape disadvantages retail investors, and it's slow and unfun. I still believe there are ways to fix this, and I'd love to play a role - maybe that means raising some money / building a team and launching other projects in the months ahead. TBD. As for what's next with Hims House: I am going to wind down the Substack and am planning to tweet less. How much less... we'll see. I might continue the podcast and am exploring finding a couple long-term sponsors. The discord will stay open. Mostly, I just want to say thank you (even to the grumpy, miserable bears) for making the last 12 months so much fun. Especially the discord. As unhinged as some of you are, you've never stopped being a source of laughter and learning. Thank you for everything. When Hims House launched, $HIMS was $16/share. Today, we're pushing up on $60. Nearly 4x. And just to get ahead of the idea that I am bowing out because I have turned bearish: I have not sold a single share of $HIMS since starting Hims House. My position today is bigger than ever. $HIMS to $100.
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🚨 EP 5 - $OPEN HOUSE
@gnoble79 is the biggest Opendoor bear on the internet. We don't see 100% eye to eye on the company's future, but it was good to chat about what would need to be true for today's valuation to make sense:
(00:32) The "100-bagger" claim
(07:42) A look at Opendoor's fundamentals
(18:41) @ericjackson's $82 PT
(22:24) Opendoor <> Compass
(29:50) Opendoor <> Carvana
(37:46) Pricing homes vs. cars
(44:20) What multiple would be reasonable?
(1:02:41) Jane Street 6% stake
(1:09:32) Tech bros vs. finance bros
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🚨 EP 4 - $OPEN HOUSE
Was great to chat with @SebastianSzturo, founder of the world's largest Opendoor investor community (@DatadoorIO). Sebastian is a software engineer and spent nearly 10 yrs at Shopify, so he had some fun Kaz stories to share as well.
(00:28) Datadoor community
(06:05) Sebastian's $OPEN investment history
(07:54) Kaz stories
(11:28) Thoughts on Fahd Ananta
(15:37) Default in-person
(20:00) Layoffs
(25:13) Sebastian's bull thesis
(28:56) Importance of macro + interest rates
(31:44) Ancillary services
(42:30) Should agents get axed?
(44:08) Bear case
(48:56) Stock price and valuation
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@CristinCulver @ianwong_ @justindross @sri_batchu thank you @CristinCulver will reach out to all! fingers crossed I can make at least a couple of these happen
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@jonathanrstern @ianwong_ @justindross & @sri_batchu, one of the smartest growth minds out there. Understands earliest Opendoor DNA and may have thoughts on where they go/grow from here
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COMING SOON TO $OPEN HOUSE 🔥
bulls
- @APompliano
- @SebastianSzturo
bears
- @gnoble79
wishlist
- @nejatian
- @rabois
- @jonchu
- @MartinShkreli
who else should I invite?
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@DudesonZach @APompliano @SebastianSzturo @gnoble79 @nejatian @rabois @jonchu @MartinShkreli @fahdananta @adambain @shrisha @joecallinanjr @ericwu01 incredible list, thanks @DudesonZach. have reached out to a few of them. fahd sadly too busy right now. will see what I can do to wrangle the others!
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@AInnovator_ @APompliano @SebastianSzturo @gnoble79 @nejatian @rabois @jonchu @MartinShkreli @Tyler_Okland_MD definitely an open invite for @Tyler_Okland_MD!
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@jonathanrstern @APompliano @SebastianSzturo @gnoble79 @nejatian @rabois @jonchu @MartinShkreli Make @Tyler_Okland_MD come out from his cave
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