Jon Techilovsky

🚨NEW: When discussing Britain's demographic circumstances, we often look to the census. But that information tells us more about the past, than the future. To see the Britain of tomorrow, we must look to the children of today. ✍️: @charliecolecc 📖: pimlicojournal.co.uk/p/for-a-vision…

*EXCLUSIVE with @ChaplainChloe @EllenAMilligan* Andy Burnham will be told by senior civil servants on Monday that he faces a worsening economy, rising borrowing costs and interest rate hikes in his first six months as PM. He’ll also be warned there could be an oil price shock if the Iran war escalates and new pressure from Donald Trump to provide UK military support. Burnham will receive updated economic forecasts from the Treasury on his first day in office that will paint a challenging picture, according to people familiar with the preparations for the transition of power. It’ll be an immediate reality check that complicates his promise to quickly deliver change for Britons. The latest internal Treasury forecasts produced in recent days have revised inflation upwards to 3.2% for Q4 2026, the people said. If a US-Iran ceasefire isn’t quickly restored that’ll get worse and oil could rise to $150 a barrel, they show. Either way, the Treasury will tell Burnham they see gilt yields rising further and at least one Bank of England interest rate hike by the end of the year, the forecasts will show. It means increased borrowing costs at a time when Burnham is considering how to fund a suite of potentially expensive policies. The impact on prices will be most acute on energy and food, according to the forecasts, and Britain also faces supply chain problems with jet fuel, leading officials to warn air fares will rise. It will all add to pressure on Burnham to offer more generous cost-of-living support as an early top priority. Senior civil servants will advise Burnham that he could face pressure from Trump to deploy British military assets in support of the US blockade. There is no expectation he will agree. Officials will also warn Burnham that in the event a lasting peace deal is agreed between the US and Iran, he will have to decide whether to implement plans made by Starmer and Macron to deploy the military to lead a Hormuz de-mining mission. Britain is also facing an increased risk of cyber attacks from Iran and Russia, officials will tell Burnham, posing another danger to the economy. Burnham will be advised he’ll need to work to maintain Britain’s leadership role on Ukraine, starting by building a personal relationship with Volodymyr Zekensky. Burnham will be told that much of the UK’s foreign policy is conducted at leader level and that he will be integral to ensuring Trump’s currently relatively favorable position toward Kyiv holds, as well as leading western allies on military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Access talks so far have proved challenging because Burnham has yet to decide key cabinet and No10 appointments, meaning civil servants have been unable to directly prepare incoming ministers. The lack of transparent preparation ahead of the changeover is prompting a mounting sense of anxiety across the civil service, several officials said.  One dismissed as impossible the suggestion Burnham could hold a mega-budget in the autumn which would include spending plans for departments as well as fiscal measures. The person said the spending review, usually scheduled for the Spring, relied on months of negotiations with departments and said it would not be feasible for this to be hashed out in three months. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…