JR Alive&Kicking

I have said it repeatedly, a war in Iran isn’t just about oil. It’s severed 20% of the world’s fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz. Farmers miss planting deadlines, food production crashes 10-25%. India in 2 months, my Australia in weeks with only 30 days oil. Even Britain, importing 40% food, risks famine. We’ve built fragile just-in-time systems that war smashes overnight. No stocks, no cooperation - China’s hoarding 1.5 years supply while we scramble. Watch my full analysis in the comments. #FinancialCrisis #FoodShortage #SteveKeen #GlobalEconomy

A runaway fiscal irresponsibility is the only way to describe this.

Japanese 10-year yields hit a new post-1997 high of 2.52%. Longer-term yields are rising globally in tandem with surging oil prices, especially as companies and governments demonstrate a will to keep spending.

"pay the don'ts" on Kalshi... here's probability of Powell leaving the Fed before June 1. He's said to have minted $250k on the bet, having had quality information ahead of time.

POWELL: WILL STAY ON AFTER MAY 15

🚨BREAKING: Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper that should be uncomfortable reading for every CEO automating their workforce right now. The argument is straightforward. Every company replacing workers with AI is also eliminating its own future customers. Laid off workers stop spending. Enough of them stop spending and nobody can afford to buy anything. The companies that fired everyone end up selling into an economy with no purchasing power left. Every executive can see this. The math is not complicated. But here is why nobody stops. If you do not automate, your competitor does. They cut costs, lower prices, take your market share, and you collapse anyway. So every company automates knowing it is collectively destructive because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives. The researchers proved this is a Prisoner's Dilemma playing out in real time. The numbers are already moving. Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year. Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that within the next year the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion. Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI. Goldman Sachs deployed a coding tool that lets one engineer do the work of five. Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 and AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half those cases. 80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation. The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income does not change a single company's incentive to automate. Capital income taxes adjust profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human. Collective bargaining cannot hold because automating is always the dominant strategy. They also identified what they call a Red Queen effect. Better AI does not solve the problem, it accelerates it. Every company chases faster automation to gain market share over rivals but at the end everyone has automated equally, the gains cancel out, and the only thing left is more destroyed demand. The one thing the math says could work is a Pigouvian automation tax. A per-task charge that forces companies to account for the demand they destroy each time they replace a worker. The conclusion is that this is not a transfer of wealth from workers to owners. Both sides lose. Workers lose income. Companies lose customers. It is a deadweight loss with no market mechanism to stop it on its own. (Link in the comment)

According to the WSJ, "Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked." This coincides with oil inventories outside the Gulf region being aggressively drawn down, a direct result of the near-total absence of new supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. The central question of this high-stakes economic "game of chicken" is which side will blink first. On one side, the U.S. is attempting to choke out the lifeblood of the Iranian economy; on the other, Iran is imposing economic dislocations on the US and, more consequentially, on most of the rest of the world. While the consensus among national security experts is that Iran will eventually yield, the timeline remains a volatile wildcard—stretching anywhere from a few weeks to several months. #economy #markets #oil #energy #middleeastwar @WSJ

Curiosidad: #Sp500 y $VIX ascendiendo a la vez en la sesión del viernes. La mano derecha, no se fía de la izquierda

Sant Jordi a Barcelona 📚🌹🐉

Mesa redonda de macroeconomía y geopolítica @jraixelamarkets , @DragonOroPlata y @aleix_amoros. Una conversación sobre inflación, tipos, energía, tensiones geopolíticas y su impacto en las grandes tesis de inversión en materias primas y activos reales.

¡Ahora sí! ¡Ya podemos anunciar cómo será el directo! ¡El Especial 5 años de @Charlandodminas! Agenda 👇 @duediligenceguy @MartaEscribanoL @pobremillenial @SargentoHighwa4 @DragonOroPlata @AAGresearch @oria_espinosa @jraixelamarkets @PalomaInt @scuestalopez @aleix_amoros

¿Quién te gustaría ver en un evento en directo de inversión en minería y metales en español? ¡Nombra a un ponente que te gustaría ver!

Marca más famosa en cada país

El mercado, que es racional (ironía = on)

From the lower Bollinger Band to the upper Bollinger Band in just a few days. Oversold to overbought.

$SPX is less than 2.3% away from ATH’s. My goodness. The right side of the V is sharper than the left side. If you know what I mean.

A ver quien me explica esto. S&P en verde el dia que empieza el bloqueo de Hormuz. Wall Street ya lo tenia descontado. x.com/KobeissiLetter…

Visca el lliure mercat!

Udemy: udemy.com/course/como-us… Youtube: youtube.com/playlist?list=…