Jeffrey 🇺🇸

Tornado in progress a few minutes in Carroll County Kentucky , just west of Carrollton @NWSILN @tystorm101 @I65WxSils @MarcWeinbergWX @Kentuckyweather @NWSLouisville

Modes are in a good agreement for a Wet Pattern to come in the OH Valley for the rest of May. A general 2-4 Inches of Rain seems like a good bet for most of us, but some could very well get more than 4 Inches. Strong to Locally Severe🌩️'s could be possible for time to time. #kywx

Richmond's population has increased by more than 15% over the past 5 years. Within the next year or so, it will likely surpass both Georgetown and Covington to become Kentucky's fifth largest city.

A Slight Risk is out for parts of Northern and Western Kentucky as a broken band of Storms along a remnant boundary in Southern Indiana. Wind Shear will be weak but plenty of Instability will be there. Strong to Damaging Winds will be the main threat. Hail is possible. #kywx

🔴 19-May: KY-4 Early Voting Analysis 🔴 Today is Election Day in Kentucky's 4th District, the most expensive House primary in American history at roughly $32 million. Trump backed Ed Gallrein to unseat Thomas Massie after Massie voted against the big beautiful bill, opposed military aid to Israel, and pushed to release the Epstein files. Here's what the early vote data says... but, more importantly, doesn't say. According to the data I downloaded, KY-4 Republicans have already banked 18,418 early votes across 18 full counties. (I am not including partial counties.) That is 233% of the entire 2024 Republican primary early vote. Every single county in the district has exceeded its 2024 early total. This is an extraordinary level of activation for a non-presidential midterm primary. The volume is concentrated in three counties: Kenton (4,690 early votes, 256% of 2024), Oldham (3,249, 256%), and Boone (2,469, 179%). Those three account for 56% of the district's banked Republican vote (minus partial counties). Here's where it gets interesting. Kenton, Oldham, and Spencer were Massie's three weakest counties in the 2024 primary. Oldham gave Massie just 66.5%, Spencer 67.2%, Kenton 77.4%. Meanwhile Massie's strongest counties -- Mason (86.8%), Bracken (85%), Lewis (83.8%) have a combined 1,107 early votes between them. So the early vote surge is clearly coming from Massie's soft flank. But that alone doesn't tell you who wins. Here's why. In 2024, Massie underperformed Trump in every single county in the district. But the gap between their performances doesn't follow a clean pattern. In Oldham, Trump got 76.9% and Massie got 74.3%; a gap of just 2.6 points. In Robertson, Trump got 92.1% but Massie got only 70.6% -- a 21.5 point gap. The biggest Massie-Trump splits are actually in tiny rural counties (Robertson, Grant, Pendleton, Carroll), not in the activated suburbs. The correlation between anti-Trump voting and anti-Massie voting at the county level is weak (r = 0.26). They're nearly independent variables. Anti-Trump Republicans and anti-Massie Republicans are not the same coalition; they overlap in the Cincinnati and Louisville suburbs but diverge everywhere else. What this means is that I cannot cleanly attribute the 2026 turnout surge to either a pro-Trump wave or an anti-Massie wave. Kenton and Oldham are activated, but those are the counties where both Trump and Massie run weakest. Whether those 8,000 banked suburban votes break for Gallrein because Trump told them, or for Massie because suburban skeptics are his natural base, is the question the data genuinely cannot answer. A warning sign for Gallrein: Boone has the weakest early voting turnout thus far of the large counties, and Rich Baris has Boone as the strongest district for Gallrein. We'll know tonight.

Let’s go

@aiApotheosis @Polymarket @EdGallrein @MassieforKY Massie is the reason hotels have chairs

@Polymarket @EdGallrein @MassieforKY The Epstein class has probably fixed it. Hundreds of millions of dollars by 70 AIPAC sickos compared to hundreds of millions from thousands of regular people in Kentucky. Such a betrayal.

JUST IN: Ed Gallrein surges to record highs in the highly contested KY-04 primary race. >60% chance he defeats Massie.

ATTENTION NORTHEAST KANSAS! Here is a picture of the exact parachute probe we launched into the Blue Rapids, Kansas #tornado. We are searching for this sensor that may have been carried 30-40 miles northeast from the launch point. The sensor may have turned into a hail stone and melted on descent Please let us know if you see a red parachute!

Almost every Republican in Congress will be celebrating tonight if Massie loses. Almost every Democrat in Congress will be celebrating tonight if Massie wins. That's all you need to know.

President Trump gives an update from the construction site of the new White House Ballroom

JD Vance perfectly explains why Republican voters should NEVER support Thomas Massie: Massie sides with Democrats 1 out of every 4 votes. Massie constantly votes AGAINST Trump’s agenda. Trump won Massie’s district by nearly 40 (!!!) points. Massie betrayed his voters. The end

Massie voted NO on No taxes on tips. No tax on overtime No tax on social security. He voted NO like every democrat.

@beinlibertarian @StephenM No we don’t lol

@StephenM They love him. Your opinion means nothing.

Massie has one of the single most conservative districts in all of America and votes with Democrats on almost all critical votes.

@hodgetwins @StephenM @BenKaxton Liberals⬆️

@StephenM @BenKaxton Look at the comments bruh, people see you lying to them

WEMBY MONSTER NIGHT IN 20T WIN OVER THUNDER 🚨🤯 41 PTS 24 REB 3 BLK 14-26 FG 48 MINS THIS SERIES WILL BE A MOVIE 🍿

STILL NOT OVER THIS SHOT 😭 WHO WAS WEMBY FEELING LIKE??

That is crazy!

One year ago tonight — the violent Plevna tornado. I drove close enough to hear the roar but just far enough to avoid the satellites whipping around. This was at 11 millimeters. Too windy for a tripod so I put on safety glasses and balanced on the roof of my vehicle and aimed toward the waterfall noise hoping to get a wide-angle structure shot.