Joao Martins L

@Rory_Johnston Thank you!! May I ask for your views on BZ=F and Dated Brent for the next 7/10 market days? It’s still very hard to understand the decoupling between physical and paper. Again may thanks and very best regards from Portugal

Joined @BNNBloomberg today to share my thoughts on the latest flurry of Iran War headlines, whether Lucy will once again pull the football, and what it all means for the oil market drawing down stocks at the fastest pace on record.

@Rory_Johnston @CRUDEOIL231 @BNNBloomberg Unfortunately, it's not yet .... Please let us know know when it's ready (I am a subscriber). Thank you and best regards

They usually do, and will do 🙂 Doubt anything I said will surprise you, though—negotiation optimism grinding up against competing interpretations of the details, etc. Every day an effort to parse down headline chaos to "well, Strait's still closed..." Got a comment in there about IRGC fishing boat counts, though 😉

Heads up that I'll be joining @BNNBloomberg to discuss the latest head fakes in oil land in the next ~10 minutes.

@Alihashem Many thanks for the clarity Ali !!!! There is noise and propaganda everywhere at a never seen level.... All the best!

Did Trump oversell a broken Iran ceasefire deal? | The Take youtu.be/_BQdMYm5NN4?si… via @YouTube

@MrIanChew @CommodMkt @SquawkCNBC @CommodMkt and a Portuguese fan here!!! Thanks for the clarity!!!

@CommodMkt @SquawkCNBC OMG didn't know you're in SG!!! I'd have flown in to watch you speak. Asian fan here.

Five "deal" announcements, zero closed (yet). That's a trend. Sell the tweet, buy the molecule. Iran's leverage increases with every day that passes and inventories decline, while it decreases for the West. Thank you to @SquawkCNBC Asia for having me on this morning. Attached is the clip: 50 years of efficiency made oil cheaper per unit of GDP but more irreplaceable in function -- it is the rare earth of the macro system. cnbc.com/video/2026/05/…

@CommodMkt @robin_j_brooks Thank you kindly! The GS report is (black) gold for a newcomer :-)

@robin_j_brooks your comments below reveal a profound lack of understanding of the oil market. Commodity futures price inventory, NOT expectations. That isn't ideology; it's a fact grounded in the economics of carry. The Brent price in your graph is not a risk anyone can actually hold — it's a spot contract stitched together at each expiry. In normal times that's a fair proxy; these are not normal times. Construct a series an investor could truly hold — a rolled BCOM index, or the USO ETF — and the picture inverts: it slopes hard up and to the right, consistent with the largest supply shock in history. USO keeps climbing because the shortage is showing up in the futures curve — not in the headline price on the screen. The carry pays an investor nearly 50% a year, even if the price of oil never moves. The SPR was drawn down before commercial inventories — when it is normally the other way round. Strategic stocks are meant to be the last line of defence, not the first, but this time Washington spent them first, managing headlines not risk. When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250. The observed indication from Asia is ~200.

@OilCfd @reardensteel_ @oil_pulse @AdiSurreyEnergy Thank you kindly!! All the best

@jsmllorente @reardensteel_ @oil_pulse @AdiSurreyEnergy Shell apparently doesn't have enough oil for their own refineries...which is unusual because they produce enough for themselves and leftovers for other refineries.

MED CRUDE: Gunvor Sells CPC at Pre-War Level Bloomberg Shell bought 132k tons of CPC from Gunvor for June 19-23 at Dated -$1.95/bbl, CFR Augusta Trade price was the lowest since Feb. 27 '

@reardensteel_ @oil_pulse @OilCfd @AdiSurreyEnergy I can only guess but they leave clues (keywords ) that with the help of gpt becomes readable. Those guys know a lot of physical oil …. And thank you all btw !!!

@oil_pulse @OilCfd @AdiSurreyEnergy I wish I understood what you guys are talking about 😂

@SomeCaveBear @Rory_Johnston That's poetry ...

@Rory_Johnston Bumpy roads, take me home To the price, I belong Through shitty headlines, n'Axios dramas Take me home, bumpy roads

gm, oil watchers don't call it a comeback, just enjoy the ride

@Rory_Johnston loving it .... its just the warm up!

@here_tolearn @tleilax___ @CRUDEOIL231 @Kayrros vix also reacted up 3% on that info

@tleilax___ @CRUDEOIL231 @Kayrros Oil spike higher in the last 20mins without any news... 🛢️🤔 Someone knew something?

I estimate at least for crude about 2.8 billions barrels of linefill and tank bottoms. This is from known pipeline infrastructure and measurable inventories. That inventory is unavailable for commerce and can't be drawn. This is from GEM data and @Kayrros

@Rui_Cavaleiro_ Mais um patetinha :-)

😁

On the official bullshitometer scale, which shall from now on be using the "kiloBarak" unit. Pakistan weights 69 kiloBaraks, Axios is 82 and Donnie a pale third at 23. Love the animated chart, nice work.

@JavierBlas You will need a "TACO counter" to track it....

Trump says the US is in "final stages" of talks with Iran (... and yes, take it with a huge pinch of salt, as the US President has made similar claims before about the war...)

@GiorgiaMeloni @Rui_Cavaleiro_ a subserviência de Portugal é vergonhosa....

Le immagini del ministro israeliano Ben Gvir sono inaccettabili. È inammissibile che questi manifestanti, fra cui molti cittadini italiani, vengano sottoposti a questo trattamento lesivo della dignità della persona. Il Governo italiano sta immediatamente compiendo, ai più alti livelli istituzionali, tutti i passi necessari per ottenere la liberazione immediata dei cittadini italiani coinvolti. L’Italia pretende inoltre le scuse per il trattamento riservato a questi manifestanti e per il totale disprezzo dimostrato nei confronti delle esplicite richieste del Governo italiano. Per questi motivi, il Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale convocherà immediatamente l’ambasciatore israeliano per chiedere chiarimenti formali su quanto accaduto.

UPDATE:

TERRORISM!!

@CommodMkt @SquawkBoxEurope Brilliant! Many many thanks from a deep tech equity trader :-) My edges are working perfectly due to your thesis!

Thank you to @SquawkBoxEurope for inviting me on this morning to discuss the structural shifts reshaping commodities and energy markets, as well as a deeper dive into AI and the problems we face with the commodities that fuel it. A lot covered off but a pleasure as always Steve Sedgwick and co: cnb.cx/4fpHZsb

@JuneGoh_Sparta Those are the machines the produce high end (2-7 nm) chips used in your (high end) phone and high end AI servers. They are built by ASML, a Dutch company and a monopoly, that mainly sells to TSMC (Taiwan) the company that produces the chips, also a monopoly :-)

@jsmllorente Google gave me this as I have no clue what are ASML EUV machines

The Crude Oil Challenge Most of us do not realize almost everything we have in modern times originates from crude oil somehow. Tell me one manufactured item you believe has no correlation to oil and let's see if it's true. I will start ... Ink! It was only after Calbee's stark image of black-and-white packaging that I found out ink is derived from solvents which is from naphtha, which is from crude oil. Your turn! #oott

@JuneGoh_Sparta Thank you! I will check it out and get back toy you. All the best

PROBLEM RESOLUTION TEST FOR WORLD LEADERS 1. You feel a tick on your young child's head. You should: A. Kill the tick with a sledge hammer B. Try something else 2. There is a report of a rattlesnake in the local kindergarten during class. You should: A. Throw hand grenades into the kindergarten to kill the snake B. Try something else 3. You suspect there is a burglar in your neighbor's house one night. You should: A. Fire 100 rifle rounds into their house to hopefully kill the suspected burglar B. Try something else 4. The nation that geographically controls 20% of the world's gas and oil and 30% of its fertilizer has always allowed shipping to freely pass the chokepoint that it physically dominates. But they may potentially develop a nuclear weapon (like the USA, Israel, Russia, China, France, Britain, India, Pakistan and North Korea). You should: A. During negotiations, start a war against them with sneak-attack assassination missile strikes of their leaders, including their top religious leader, and also kill thousands of civilians, including 168 grade-school girls. Do this even though you know they will close the choke point and send the world crashing into a great depression and send many nations into famine. B. Try something else.