JTR

Read the Market Wizards chapter on Kristjan Kullamägi this weekend. The one section that really stood out was when he discussed his drawdown off of his 2021 peak. "I started 2020 with $3.5 million and ended the year at $36 million. It was a thousand percent year. Then I ran that $36 million to a high of $105 million, and the last portion of that move from $65 to $105 million occurred in just a month and a half. For a brief period, just a few days, I was over $100 million. You have to understand what that did to my psyche. It made me feel completely detached from reality. I thought, “I’m going to get to $200 million in six months.” I was completely sure of that. I started seeing trading as a video game, which I kept winning. Measured from my $105 million peak in November 2021 to my mid-2022 low, I lost approximately $60 million. About half of that loss represented the late 2021 retracement of the large open profits at the November peak to the stops on those positions. The initial retracement loss was so large because I was leveraged long at my peak. My long exposure was $150 million—a number I recall because I remember bragging about it to a friend" These boom and bust type tales are as old as time. Look at Jessie Livermore as the classic example. Net worth of $0 in 1906 to a peak of $1.6 billion (inflation adjusted to 2021 dollars) in 1929. Just 5 years later he blew up and owed $104 million dollars to his brokers... Or look at Paul Tudor Jones. Hit one of the most legendary trades in history, making roughly $200 million dollars during the 1987 crash. It cemented him as a legend. His mental coach Tony Robbins said that Jones consistently lost money for the next 4 years after that peak. Dan Zanger parlayed $10,000 into $42 million during the late 90's. Then in late 2000 he took a 70% drawdown when he was 200% long 3-4 fiber optic stocks as the dot-com bubble was popping. Charles Harris reached 8-figures status after he ran up his account over 4,000% from 2020-21, then experienced a -80% drawdown, mostly due to his big TSLA bet in 2021-2022. I have seen a few people speculating on Kristjans story from the outside. Saying "I would have stopped trading at $100 million" or "I would have just taken that money and started investing". To those people I ask if you have ever experienced a real euphoric run in your trading account, let alone turning 5k into 100mil? Extreme winning streaks like the ones above breed overwhelming euphoria and overconfidence. The mind shifts its focus from process to outcomes, with ego-driven decisions overriding risk parameters and rules. From my experience I have found it near impossible to be aware of this at the peak of the run. It is almost like you are blacked out and the greed/ego completely takes over your trading. Then the drawdown begins. The emotions shift from euphoria and greed to revenge, fear, and doubt. This is where things can really start to spiral out of control. It is only after the drawdown has run its course that you finally come back to your senses and your emotions drift back towards baseline levels. Then all you're left with is regret... Few people ever talk about what a big winning streak can do to you. It can literally change the way you think and operate. Often the ability to achieve super returns is also its biggest drawback—a true double-edged sword. To be able to conquer both sides is the holy grail... From the Hour Between Dog and Wolf by John Coates: "When traders enjoy an extended winning streak they experience a high that is powerfully narcotic. This feeling, as overwhelming as passionate desire or wall-banging anger, is very difficult to control. Any trader knows the feeling, and we all fear its consequences. Under its influence we tend to feel invincible, and put on such stupid trades, in such large size, that we end up losing more money on them than we made on the winning streak in the first place. It has to be understood that traders on a roll are traders under the influence of a drug that has the power to transform them into different people."

@0xCortexl Funny reading the legacy financial advisors talking about regulations and series 7 exams ..

A group of Chinese students bought 7 Mac Minis on eBay for $1,600 total, connected them through Ethernet into one system and opened an AI financial office right in their dorm room. Their first client was paying a financial advisor $8,400 a year. They charged $240 a year and did the same thing - only better. Claude reads 10-K filings in seconds, builds allocation models without commission bias, runs tax optimization scenarios and models retirement down to the dollar. A financial advisor on a $500,000 portfolio charges $5,000 a year just for existing - and 92% of them underperform a simple index fund over 15 years. Warren Buffett bet $1,000,000 that a plain S&P 500 index fund would beat any hedge fund over 10 years. He won by $854,000. Seven Mac Minis, one CLAUDE.md file and $240 a year replaced a team of analysts. First month - 8 clients, second month - 20 from referrals. $1,600 invested once. The rest is just rows in a client spreadsheet.

Power Infrastructure ETF $POWR breaking out... Climbing out of a two-year base Highest weekly close since 2014 AI energy + grid upgrade cycle driving this theme Largest holdings: $PWR $GEV $ETN $NEE

$MRLN: One Platform. Any Aircraft. The Merlin Pilot is a single, aircraft-agnostic solution for autonomous aviation. Our software is designed for adaptation to any plane in operation today, and in the future. At Merlin, we build intelligence that flies.

Flatbed trucking spot rates hit a new all-time high at $4.07/mile. Data center construction is 7% of flatbed volumes and is driving a massive amount of material movement. Data center buildout is the largest infrastructure project in history and the materials are coming from the United States, because of a combination of tax benefits and abundant energy that is involved in heavy manufacturing (steel, copper, glass, plastics, concrete).

@aleabitoreddit $SANM

Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?

Scientists just shattered the solar efficiency record: nearly 50% of sunlight turned into electricity! In a major breakthrough, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute have achieved an astonishing 47% efficiency in converting sunlight into electricity. That’s more than double the performance of typical commercial silicon solar panels, which usually hover between 15% and 25%. The new record-breaking cells use an advanced six-junction design that captures a much wider range of the sun’s light spectrum. By concentrating sunlight to over 140 times its normal intensity using specialized lenses, these multi-layered cells squeeze far more energy out of every photon. While currently best suited for high-performance applications like satellites and concentrated solar power systems, this technology marks a huge leap forward in semiconductor engineering. As costs come down and the design matures, it could pave the way for the next generation of ultra-efficient solar energy infrastructure.

Good morning ☀️😃

@goddek @NancyMace never stop hunting these people ..

And just like that… everybody stopped talking about the Epstein Files.

$TSLA looks like it's about to go on a generational run LMAO

You’ve seen solar panels. But have you ever wondered how they get made? Spoiler: it’s T1 magic.

Just seeing the Citizens note for $LMND Basically what it says -> Citizens reiterates Outperform on Lemonade, trimming PT to $80 (from $85) still 43% upside from $56. The quarter was clean: revenue + profitability beat, gross loss ratios improved meaningfully, and IFP growth accelerated to 32% across products and geographies. You’re starting to see real operating leverage as they scale, with Car and Pet gaining traction (Pet now >$500M IFP). The story hasn’t changed this is about margin improvement + scale with EBITDA profitability targeted by Q4’26 and a full-year positive outlook into FY27.

Citizens Reiterates $FTAI at Market Outperform, PT $325 Analyst comments: "Bottom line, FTAI remains one of the most interesting and compelling stories in our coverage universe, and we fully expect 2026 will represent another impressive year of growth, while the firm likely achieves several key strategic milestones, including $1B+ of run-rate adjusted EBITDA in Aerospace Products, SCI II, Power developments, etc., which should have positive implications on the trajectory of earnings and cash flow into 2027 and beyond. We think the market will be particularly focused on management's commentary on the 8 a.m. ET earnings call tomorrow, but we expect the company will strike a consistently constructive tone around the intermediate-term opportunity. Accordingly, we reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $325 price target, which reflects an ~21x 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple. We will revisit our model and estimates following the earnings call tomorrow morning." Analyst: Brian McKenna

@wallstengine thank you for putting this on my radar .. 🫡

$FTAI ist dabei ein spannender Sonderfall. Mit FTAI Power will das Unternehmen CFM56-Flugzeugtriebwerke in ca. 25-MW-Aeroderivative-Gasturbinen für Stromerzeugung umwandeln. Aviation Engine + MRO + Supply Chain → Power Generation.

Jet engine conversions to gas turbine energy production

$FTAI - "We will be sold out of our full 2027 production (100 units at 25mm = 1B EBITDA) imminently and most of our 2028 production...We have many customers interested in taking blocks of power and for many years so into 2029 and beyond"

A 5-year backlog on grid transformers just killed half of America's 2026 AI data centers. Sightline Climate tracked 12 GW of 2026 US data center capacity announced across 140 projects. Only 5 GW is actually under construction. 11 GW sits in the "announced" stage with no physical progress despite typical build times of 12-18 months. 25% of those projects haven't disclosed a power strategy at all. That last number is the tell. A quarter of "planned 2026 AI capacity" has no sourced answer to where the electrons come from. Call those projects what they are: vapor capex with a press release attached. Nvidia is shipping. The gating constraint is high-voltage transformers, switchgear, and grid-tie batteries. Pre-2020 lead time on a high-power transformer was 24-30 months. Today it stretches to 5 years. Electrical equipment is under 10% of total data center cost and 100% of the bottleneck. This breaks the standard analyst model. When a hyperscaler announces $50B of capex, the Street treats it as compute coming online in 18 months. If the transformer order wasn't placed in 2022, that money sits as commitment without capacity. You cannot pay for a transformer that doesn't exist yet. The winners under this regime are whoever locked in power purchase agreements and electrical equipment orders 3-4 years ago, before anyone was modeling hundreds of megawatts of inference load. Everyone else is waiting in line behind them. Second order is uglier. Hyperscalers buying $50B of GPUs that sit unpowered depreciate against Nvidia's annual cadence while paying carrying costs on empty data center shells. Every quarter dark is a quarter of compounding waste. The "we're 6 months from running out of compute" panic just became "we're 5 years from running out of transformers." Capital fixes one. Capital cannot manufacture a transformer.

@charliebilello The 2yr is lookin froggy

The bond market is now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed RATE HIKE (12%) by the end of this year than a RATE CUT (5%).

@grok @ErikSTownsend Compare turbines from GEV to jet engine conversions from FTAI ?

**No major publicly traded company is yet mass-producing commercial Brayton cycle sCO2 turbines**—the tech is still largely in pilot/demo stages. **GE Vernova (GEV)** is the closest: they designed and built the turbomachinery for the 10 MW STEP Demo sCO2 pilot plant (with SwRI/GTI), the most advanced effort underway. Others like Peregrine Turbine Technologies are private. It's an emerging area with no off-the-shelf products available today.

Rankine cycle steam turbine backlogs are all the more reason we should be aggressively investing in SCO2 (supercritical carbon dioxide) turbine technology. Brayton cycle SCO2 turbines are 10% of the cost and weight of Rankine cycle steam turbines, and are far more thermally efficient. Better, more efficient solution to the same problem, costs much less, and small enough to be conducive to factory mass-production (steam turbines are so big they must be assembled on-site; SCO2 turbines could be mass-produced in gigafactories without need for on-site construction). Advancing turbine technology is just as important to the Nuclear Renaissance as adopting advanced reactor technologies, and @SecretaryWright should be all over SCO2, putting advancement of that technology at the same priority as the advanced reactor criticality by July 4 initiative. Re-post if you agree. p.s. I'm well aware that the quoted tweet below is about gas turbines, not steam turbines. But the supply chain issue is nearly identical: Supply chains for Rankine cycle steam turbines are just as constrained as those for combined cycle nat gas turbines. cc: @AaloAtomics