@LukeGromen This guy thinks gold is going to $2500 or lower. cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1kv6si5-GV3004…
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Ken Chiu
968 posts
Ken Chiu
@kcc582
Entrepreneur/investor and “funemployed”. Disclaimer: The information provided is NOT financial advice. I am not a financial adviser, accountant or the like.
Katılım Nisan 2007
799 Takip Edilen232 Takipçiler
"Invert...always invert." -Charlie Munger
For example, w/ $14T in USD deposits offshore, why would the UAE (or any nation) ever need a USD swap line?
If a guy w/a $14B bank deposit needed a home equity line just to pay his bills, what would that say about that guy & that bank?
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@GoldForecast They lost their two major customers? Too concentrated for their revenue base?
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Wondering what happened to Zoomd Technologies. 🤔
NPV chart before earnings:
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They doubled down lol 😆.
So I guess peeps can fill up their gas tanks with paper oil? 😂🙈🤭
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@GoldForecast @LegareSimon I use oz of production divided by market cap
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It's time to leverage up on the highest leveraged miners. 😎
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My job is to entertain you most of the time, occasionally quell sensationalist headlines, and so forth.
You know, the normal stuff.
But each day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed is a growing global catastrophe that people are sleepwalking into.
That’s the signal.
GIF
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@BobEUnlimited @AahanPrometheus @excessreturnpod @practicalquant @JJCarbonneau Fund managers probably just don’t want to get fired for not being close to the index..
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Stopped by @excessreturnpod last week for a great wide ranging convo on the oil shock pressures, how to think about the flowthrough of AI to the macro economy, and my day job. w/ @practicalquant & @JJCarbonneau. Check it out!
youtu.be/1Ig_e423nNs?si…
YouTube
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Did you know Soma Gold has more net income than Jaguar Mining? Weird right?
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@KingKong9888 Pierre Lassonde thinks gold is going to $17k in 3 years.
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In a world where there is no international law, physical #Gold in your own possession is KING, not sovereign debt.
RT@RT_com
We’re spiralling back to world where there was NO intl. law: only 'MIGHT IS RIGHT' — Lavrov 'For us, 'God is not in might, but in TRUTH', but now look at what is happening' 'US has officially declared that they care ONLY about their own well-being'
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@Silver__Santa Yes, I will soon increase it to 12%. 😄
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The first problem for miners is oil spike. Now comes the second problem: discount rate. Bond yields are soaring, so we need to increase the discount rate.
Only hold miners with near term cash flow. The higher discount rate will kill future cash flows.
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@LukeGromen @onechancefreedm Why do you think gold is going down with USTs?
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@onechancefreedm IMO no. IMO long ends will keep rising until either:
a) Everything is restored within days to pre-war condition
b) The UST & global sovereign bond markets collapse
c) Western sovereigns print money to do YCC, into an oil spike.
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If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem.
Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks.
Let's watch.
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What is cheap is Soma Gold, expecting a 3X rise.😃
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Current status of Hecla Mining at a PE of 20. This is not cheap. Expecting another -30% drop.
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@KingKong9888 I think you have one of the best hit rates with predictions..
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Gold producers with the highest forward cash flow yields at $5,500 gold, using year-end 2027 and year-end 2028 production runrates. Cash flow yield in this analysis is defined as AISC margin measured in % of current EV (fully diluted). Developers with projects starting in 2027/28 will follow on a separate list. Companies like $PGLD.v, $NCAU.v, $CLA.ax, $NEXG.v, $AUMB.v or $TSK.to will generate very high AISC margins once their projects go into production.
YE 2027: YE 2028:
$MJS.v 221.4% * $MJS.v 221.4%*
$STGO.v 118.9% $MKO.v 125.6%
$JZR.v 114.1% * $ATY.v 124.9%
$ORV.to 109.6% $STGO.v 118.9%
$SOMA.v 108.1% $JZR 114.1% *
$ASE.v 82.5% $ORV.to 109.6%
$AGLD.v 82.2% $SOMA.v 108.1%
$MKO.v 78.6% $ASE.v 82.5%
$SAM.to 73.5% $AGLD.v 82.2%
$CERT.v 65.9% $SAM.to 77.2%
$GG.v 52.5% $GG. 67.3%
$ATY.v 42.6% $CERT.v 65.9%
* MJS.v is planning a Phase 2 and Phase 3 expansion of the SJG mine and substantial contributions from Mujin going forward. Aforementioned AISC margins assume that the expansion plans will be realized no later than YE 2027. Some uncertainties remain. As to JZR: They are having problems bringing their project online. The operator of their project doesn't seem very competent. A lot of question marks remain.
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You owe it to yourself to watch this @LukeGromen interview. He gets it, he just does.
One Asset To Double As Global System Risks Unraveling | Luke Gromen youtu.be/_Hoq9drLThE?si… via @YouTube
YouTube
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In 2024, @davidpgoldman reported that China can make ~1,000 cruise missile motors per DAY. 😳
Clash Report@clashreport
Rubio on Iran: They are producing, by some estimates, over 100 of these missiles a month. Compare that to the six or seven interceptors that can be built a month.
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@rohindhar Didn't Citriani's AI article say home prices in SF would drop?
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Gives me no pleasure to report that your only hedge against AI doomerism is to move to San Francisco and buy a house 😅
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@FredIntelBear @GoldForecast Agreed looks shady to me lol. Of course back load the growth where you can just revise it lower later as there’s less accountability to hitting it now.
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@GoldForecast Ha, ha! I love how they back loaded all the growth. At least they kept a chart with actual numbers on it.
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Avino anticipates producing between 1.0 to 1.2 million ounces ("oz") of silver, 5.0 to 7.0 thousand oz of gold and 6.0 to 7.5 million pounds ("lb") of copper as per the Company's 2026 budget or 2.4 to 2.7 million silver equivalent oz ("AgEq").
Looks a bit lower than forecasted below.🫤
$ASM
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@josephwang @MikeIppolito_ I suspect the deflationary aspect of AI & job loss will give fiscal/Fed an excuse to print lots of money which offsets the bond benefit is more beneficial to gold.
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@MikeIppolito_ Good question - all the tech guys are making rapid predictions but I guess we'll find out in the coming months.
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AI tools are initially recessionary. Manufacturing automation left many workers behind, so a similar transition raises unemployment. The disrupted incumbents are publicly traded, so there is also a negative wealth effect. Bonds are the ultimate AI trade.
fedguy.com/creative-destr…
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