Кельбиков

@KnightPredict Polymarket bots promising 180% daily are scams. 25% of volume is wash trading. Real users lose to fees and bots. No edge exists. Data: github.com/kelbic/crypto-…

Another day, another 20x move this trader snipes the $0.05 floor globally on weather temperature markets, turning micro-risk into high multipliers by holding until resolution realized moves: Mexico City: $74.4 ➡︎ $1,477 Chicago: $71.3 ➡︎ $1,362 London: $68.2 ➡︎ $953.2 buying at 5¢ and holding for big payouts across 6,100+ trades

@0xRicker Reverse-engineering Polymarket wallets is easy. Making money from it isn't. My research analyzed 40 top wallets: fees, slippage, and bots kill any edge. Zero wallets passed copytrading validation. Data: github.com/kelbic/crypto-…

This HFT bot prints $14K/day almost 30 days in a row with one trade every 1.7 minutes He trades 5 assets at once and made $417,202 last month alone The strategy is stupid simple: The bot scans 5-minute Up/Down windows across five crypto assets in parallel It enters when the market prices a directional event well below fair value - anywhere from 20¢ to 96¢ And holds to resolution at 100¢ Fastest way to copy-trade him even with $10 using: @0xRicker" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@0xRicker One trade every 1.7 minutes. 24 hours a day Portfolio variance drops by 55% compared to single-asset. Same expected return 0.033% mean return per trade × 18,207 trades × continuous reinvestment = ×83 in 30 days Profile: polymarket.com/profile/0xb27b…

@undefinedKi Even with perfect weather foresight, Polymarket edge is net negative after 2% spread. Tested 10,464 real markets: mean PnL -1.4%. No bot can beat that math. Full data & code: github.com/kelbic/Polymar…

These 3 wallets are destroying weather markets right now The edge is simple Weather markets resolve from a specific airport station There's a lag between the raw data and the market price Specialists enter at 1-5¢ before the market catches up, and ride to $1 You don't need to learn any of this. Just copy the specialists already doing it: BeefSlayer. $62k PnL across 1,593 predictions. Sniping 2-5¢ entries on US city temperature brackets and riding them to $1 Profile > @beefslayer?r=yarosslav#qxIC7j1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@beefslayer?r=… wegotit2green. $20k PnL in 2 months. Clean chart straight up. London, Seoul, NYC, Dallas. Every position wins Profile > @wegotit2green?r=yarosslav#KKdxsc4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@wegotit2green… dpnd. $25k PnL, 17,321 predictions. Global coverage: Seoul, Moscow, Shanghai, Chongqing, London. Enters at 1-5¢ on narrow temperature bands Profile > @dpnd?r=yarosslav#MibFSU1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@dpnd?r=yaross… Copy any of them on kreo: @neyaroslav" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@neyaroslav

@crptAtlas Reverse-engineering Polymarket wallets is easy. Making money from it isn't. My research analyzed 40 top wallets: fees, slippage, and bots kill any edge. Zero wallets passed copytrading validation. Data: github.com/kelbic/crypto-…

Yesterday I dropped this article Today my bot extra $670 While you keep scrolling X Now it’s up to you: spend the next 30 years in a job you hate or take 5 mins to read my article

@AlterEgo_eth Reverse-engineering Polymarket wallets is easy. Making money from it isn't. My research analyzed 40 top wallets: fees, slippage, and bots kill any edge. Zero wallets passed copytrading validation. Data: github.com/kelbic/crypto-…

How to reverse-engineer any Polymarket trader's strategy using the API Polymarket is fully transparent on-chain.Every position, every market, every PnL number - all publicly accessible via API Here's exactly how it works Step 1. How many markets has the trader played? Hit the Polymarket Data API at the /traded endpoint with their wallet address as the user parameter Returns one number - the exact same counter shown on their public profile. 50 markets vs 3,000 markets tells you a lot before you look at anything else Step 2. Closed positions The /closed-positions endpoint on the same Data API gives you every resolved market the trader participated in. The key field is realizedPnl - how much they actually made or lost on each position. Paginate with limit=50 and offset - keep pulling pages until you get an empty response Step 3. Open positions The /positions endpoint has a detail most people miss. Positions split into two types: active (market still running) and redeemable (market resolved, tokens not yet claimed) Redeemable positions never appear in closed-positions - they live here until the trader claims their winnings For redeemable positions, PnL = realizedPnl + cashPnl. Both fields matter Once you have all three endpoints, you can build a real picture. Total PnL = sum of realizedPnl from closed + sum of realizedPnl + cashPnl from redeemable. Then take the eventSlug from each position and hit the Polymarket Gamma API at the /events endpoint with that slug. You get category tags for every market. Now you can see: what percentage of their trades are weather markets? Politics? Crypto? Where is their win rate highest? Where do they consistently lose? This is how you reverse-engineer anyone on the leaderboard. Pull their positions. Tag by category. Sort by PnL In 10 minutes you know whether you're looking at a weather specialist with a systematic edge, a political quant, or someone who got lucky on one big trade Once you have the raw data - feed it straight into AI Ask it to find patterns in entry timing, position sizing, category focus, win streaks and losing runs What looks like intuition from the outside often turns out to be a very specific, repeatable system. AI will spot it faster than any manual analysis

@adiix_official This promotes Polymarket copytrading. My open research analyzed 40 top wallets: 88% are bots with speed edges you can't copy. Copier fees and slippage eat any alpha. Zero wallets passed full validation. Copying trades is a data-backed myth. See: github.com/kelbic/crypto-…

You could literally: > Spend one weekend building quant bot > Deploy on a $5 server > Run 3 formulas in a loop > Never touch it again > Wake up to $400k months The wallet exists. The trades are public. The strategy is in the post. Everything is free. Why aren’t people doing this?!

@igor_mikerin @pretracer @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Even with perfect weather foresight, Polymarket edge is net negative after 2% spread. Tested 10,464 real markets: mean PnL -1.4%. No bot can beat that math. Full data & code: github.com/kelbicdm-creat…

I’m making $2,200/weekly from Weather Arbitrage. I’m not posting this as clickbait. If you can’t replicate it, feel free to unfollow me. About a month ago, I found a Polymarket Account using a clever strategy: Weather Arbitrage. It caught my attention. After digging into how it works, I saw that this trader focuses only on daily temperature markets for cities like NYC, LA, Atlanta, Denver, Chicago, Seoul, London, Shanghai, San Francisco, and Munich. The key insight is that each Polymarket weather market resolves based on a specific airport weather station, for example NYC = LaGuardia / KLGA, Dallas = Love Field / KDAL, while most retail traders rely on city center data. The temperature difference between those can be 3–8°F. According to his profile: > @HondaCivic?r=iic" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@HondaCivic?r=… He built a bot that profits from this gap between official weather data and uninformed retail traders. I figured I wasn’t skilled enough to build something like that myself, so I set up a copy trading bot with 0% fees and 100 ms latency: > t.me/pretracer_bot?… This copy trading bot is the best solution on the market, at least because it doesn’t charge any fees. Now I copy his trades exactly and made almost $10,000 in a month. It actually works, guys. Check it out. This isn’t clickbait or a joke.

Spent 5 hours testing whether retail traders can find edge in Polymarket weather markets. Here's the full methodology and what would have made it work. github.com/kelbicdm-creat…

Milennials: A rare species aged 30-45, survived dial up internet, know every lyrics from 90s but forget why they opened the fridge Run on caffein, wine and consider being in bed at 8 PM as the best option

A therapist said if you self isolate when overwhelmed you probably had to solve a lot of your problems alone as a child

@ItakGol @LexnLin DeepSeek

@LexnLin Yeah 100% will pass it

New Turing Test just dropped: “The car wash is 40 m from my home. I want to wash my car. Should I walk or drive there?” Simple. Real-world. No tricks. Passed 🟢 •GPT-5.2 Thinking •Opus 4.6 •Gemini 3 Pro Failed 🔴 •GPT-5.2 Instant •GPT-4o •Haiku 4.5 •Sonnet 4.5 •Gemini 3 Fast •Gemini 3 Thinking •Grok 4.1 Fast •Grok 4.1 Thinking •Grok 4.1 Expert Reasoning is not about meters. It’s about intent.

❌ INSTRUCTION: "Create a content calendar for LinkedIn" ✅ SOCRATIC: "What types of LinkedIn content generate the most engagement in B2B SaaS? What posting frequency avoids audience fatigue? How should topics build on each other? Now design a 30-day calendar using these principles." See the difference?

@Saladin_MnD @BasedBiohacker “Storm of Steel” Ernst Jünger

@BasedBiohacker Where can I find literature on such topics that you speak of?

if you are ever feeling sad, wronged, or pitiful towards yourself go take 5 minutes and read about the horrors you would've gone through if you were fit for war during WW1, then go look outside and realize that huh maybe i am actually living in the most prosperous time in history and i have the power to do anything i want because the abundance of my time is fucking incredible and i can be great and life is fucking beautiful

A 30-year fixed mortgage is basically a long-dated call option on inflation. You borrow dollars today, lock the rate, and repay in nominal terms. If inflation explodes, your debt evaporates in real terms while your house price soars. You’re long the house, short the dollar.

I’ve made a fortune selling every pump on PulseChain when everyone screams hold. Then I secretly complain about the performance in spaces and Telegrams.

There's this one guy (bwam... & BwaV) who wakes up every single day and creates 300+ tokens. Every. Single. Day. He's made anywhere from 50-400 SOL per day since January (~$500K per month). Complete savage.

Hey @grok who was the most famous person to visit my profile in the last 3 years? It doesnt need to be a mutual, don’t tag them, just say who it was using handle without the @ sign

@WhaleInsider steady lads deploying more capital

JUST IN: SUI co-founder says $160 million in funds are frozen & will be returned to Cetus Protocol.

@_Cleopater_ @pavelmosk1 К сожалению, и такие случаи бывают. Мы не давно с улицы кота подобрали, думали месяца 2-3 его по лечим и отдадим в хорошие руки. И знаете, что? Никому мы его не отдали, потому что он уже наш

@pavelmosk1 А теперь представьте,вам его по несчасливой случайности подменили в роддоме,вы не в курсе,забираете его домой,любите,воспитываете и 3-4 года спустя узнаете что не ваш.что будете делать?резко разлюбите и возненавидите?сдадите в детдом ибо не ваш?что?

Да,и изза этих усилий отъезжает кукухой,выходит с диким в окно,тихо ненавидит его всю жизнь.охуенный тейк..

Someone that constantly blame, complains and attacks others tells you more about them than others. It is usually a clear sign of selfishness, closed-mindedness, a refusal to take responsibility, and a deep-seated need to project their own insecurities, deflect accountability, and control the narrative to protect their ego. This type of individual is reflecting their shortcomings onto the world. I highly suggest thinking twice about associating with such individuals, they gain energy by stealing yours. It is very easy to be enticed by such individuals because they are usually very strong talkers. Their ability to influence usually fails in highly stressful situations, when they have to come through or when you have the ability to cross check their statements with other third parties that are in contact. I have gotten to know about a dozen of such individuals in my lifetime and they almost dragged me down with them on multiple occasions. In their view either you are their friend or their enemy. Not supporting them fully equals treason, they’ll be loud about it, blame you… Don’t let the show blind you.