Tobias

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Tobias

Tobias

@kingfishcap

Searching for positive expected value in financial markets. 23 years old. Special situations. Contact: [email protected]

Sydney, Australia Katılım Nisan 2023
1.2K Takip Edilen1.9K Takipçiler
Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@lasse108 $HUM.ax activist situation led by @puppyeh1 , binaryish, immediate upside on successful EGM vote 20-40%, downside ~10-20% on fail. May 1st is EGM. Wrote about it on the stack.
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Lasse
Lasse@lasse108·
Does anyone have a good trade and/or investment that I can make with a shorter time horizon? Common stock only, can be a binary event.
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Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
Any Australians using polymarket?
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@liquiditygoblin Compare with other markets too like devigged/de commed betfair. Then slam the ones with most margin.
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Liquidity Goblin
Liquidity Goblin@liquiditygoblin·
some interesting pricing between Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner markets and democrat/republican nominee markets. they are very liquid but they are not efficient you can arbitrage these 1/5
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@LeoMargolis_ Exactly right. There's lots of prices on poly you can stat arb or straight up arb if you can find an efficient enough "true value" fig somewhere (maybe a market with billions liquid each side) and then add a small margin on top for extra ev/margin of safety.
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Leo Margolis
Leo Margolis@LeoMargolis_·
Polymarket empirical data markets are so cool because you can build your model based on the underlying asset which is liquid, and apply it to their market with only 2 mil volume that is super illiquid and full of retail orderflow.
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A Lucky A Day
A Lucky A Day@aluckyaday·
@DanR902 @Cav_TRF @proform_racing Its does not mean the markets are efficient, it just means the inefficiencies appear like random noise and cancel out over time, because you don't know what they are 😉 More a feature of it being a 100% market rather than 100% efficient.
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Paul Fitzgerald
Paul Fitzgerald@Cav_TRF·
Your occasional reminder of the almost perfect long-term calibration between Betfair SP (UK & IRE horse racing win markets) and actual outcomes. #wisdomofthecrowd *data from @proform_racing
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@bookiewatchdog Should get on the fact companies using betmakers software are sharing client information. Totally illegal sharing of information.
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Bookie Watchdog
Bookie Watchdog@bookiewatchdog·
Anyone with a locked TAB account with no end in sight please DM us particularly if youre prepared to go on the record
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
Looking to sign up to a few CFD brokers for some catalyst stuff I'm doing. If anyone has recommendations or affiliate links it would be greatly appreciated!
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@ALBACapMgmt Pretty sure i’ve seen a private ruling from the ato that states winnings weren’t taxable on poly either too (as they’ve defined it as gambling). Quite interesting.
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
Risk adjusted IRR's in the thousands, ability to multiply your total return using multiple brokers, earning real cash essentially risk free ($300+) all while only having to put up tiny amounts of capital for short periods of time (1-2 weeks). New piece out.
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@finphysnerd Good edge is to see what these funds are allocating in the small ends of town. Sometimes they do the hard bits for you.
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Myles
Myles@finphysnerd·
@kingfishcap Great call. I need to pay more attention to these.
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
Well, $PNC.ax (+100%) are indeed going to hit the NPAT goal (sorry exceed), STAM did indeed become a board member and the price was indeed wrong.
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Tobias@kingfishcap

PNC.ax - price is wrong. Yes recession is bad for the stock however, we know a family office had to sell indiscriminately due to liquidity issues (as per the ann, its not amiss to assume this could still be happening) + management are super incentivised to hit the STI. Employee exp is too high and easily cut imo (if it came to it). From a game theory perspective (incentives) I do think its +ev at this price and thats how I’ve always thought about buying decisions. However, I note that if management have to cut guidance and it looks like they won’t hit the needed results for the STI, it might become a sell (price dependent) Low level overview so DYOR.

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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
The thesis was very simple. Business model is easy to understand, management went into cost savings mode with STAM as major holder, gave themselves some STI and LTI to hit quite a big NPAT number but you could see from the outside how it was doable, due to biz model all cost savings go straight to the bottom line with underlying earnings unaffected, so underlying biz doesn't have to grow much to hit goal. Still ~5x P/E.
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Kreuzmann
Kreuzmann@Kreuzmann13·
$CXZ.AX quietly bought back 4% of the total shares in 2 days.
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@toy59496 And now i'm officially kicking myself for not unloading the boat @ 11c
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Robin Dods
Robin Dods@toy59496·
$BSA.AX : Appointment Mr David Geraghty An impressive feat for $BSA in acquiring the services of Mr David Geraghty as non executive chairman of $BSA.AX. It makes sense if you consider a mining executive is capable of executing at scale, controlling costs, managing contracts, and redeploying capital. Recollect that $MIN is not just a miner but a service provider. They now have significant strength on their board. I note an arrow where I sold out my 5% of the company. Although that was 34% yield ($120k), it's certainly not the 430% yield that would have occurred had I simply stayed.
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
@chirrybin Yes you can still vote! Positive news has developed since the Australian Takeovers Panel needed time to review the dubious actions of the $HUM.ax board and hence, they made orders for the EGM date to be moved to March 13th (AEST).
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Chirry Bin
Chirry Bin@chirrybin·
@kingfishcap Can we still vote? I thought it was absolute now as of 19 Feb 2026?
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Tobias
Tobias@kingfishcap·
If you hold $HUM.ax in IBKR and haven't already submitted your vote, open up a support ticket and copy paste what is written below. You must submit this 4 days prior to March 13th has IBKR requires, so submit ASAP.
Tobias@kingfishcap

$HUM.ax - New piece on the activist situation @puppyeh1 is leading. I think we are slightly odds on to win, getting a better up/down gain/loss split due to the recent sell off. I also believe that there are many aspects to the situation which lend to a better break price then many think. I am long.

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Keşfet

@lasse108 @puppyeh1 @Divergent7651 @liquiditygoblin @LeoMargolis_ @aluckyaday @DanR902 @Cav_TRF