🔋 Lambdabraham

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🔋 Lambdabraham

🔋 Lambdabraham

@lambdabraham

Building things and taking risks

Katılım Nisan 2015
687 Takip Edilen75 Takipçiler
🔋 Lambdabraham
🔋 Lambdabraham@lambdabraham·
@alex_avoigt I'll sell you that bet at 30%, meaning for a bet size of 1k$, I'll pay you 700$ if Tesla closes any coming day in 2026 above its ATH, otherwise you pay me 300$
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🔋NetMelc🔋
🔋NetMelc🔋@NetMelc·
$EOSE shorts getting burned? 👀
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hope hopes hoping
hope hopes hoping@hopes_revenge·
autistic gf is like a Tesla . low maintenance . no surprises . inherently a little more racist than other options.
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peepeepoopoo
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer·
@lambdabraham i'm having a helles now. like i wanted a nice radler when it was nice and warm outside sue me
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peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer·
so far this was the biggest unexpected surprise. i didn't even have königlicher hirschgarten picked out in advance, i just needed a nearby eating establishment to nymphenburg palace while i waited for my ticket time. the steckerlfisch may be the best fish i've ever had
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer

now this is living

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peepeepoopoo
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer·
and the radler was delicious
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peepeepoopoo
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer·
i will say the most concerning thing about trump being so open about his platform of cutting healthcare entitlements and juicing defense spending - especially in tandem with the recent defense department purge - is that this doesn't sound like a man concerned about elections
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peepeepoopoo
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer·
@ryxcommar no and i actually will never buy a s&p 500 etf because it contains certified garbage like tesla
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peepeepoopoo
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer·
my strategy now is i have placed certain trades in my account and will now not open my brokerage for a month. good luck everybody
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Apolitical
Apolitical@Apolitical3678·
* Start war * Give 5 different reasons for war * 80% disapproval * Immediately blow up little girls school surrendering all moral high ground * Kill leadership which is immediately replaced by more radical leadership * Declare victory * Have no contingency plan for closing the straits of Hormuz * Have no clear victory conditions * Gas prices skyrocket * Economy craters * Service members killed, taxes wasted, bases blown up, no material gain for the American public * Continue declaring victory Worst war ever conducted
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Nick 🔋
Nick 🔋@NPianosi·
$EOSE Even our favourite indicator is not looking good right now @GrassmanWilliam Apparently, this is the second week in a row without felt deliveries. Never happened in recent months I think.
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🔋 Lambdabraham
🔋 Lambdabraham@lambdabraham·
@SowingAlphaSeed You pay interest and for the convexity of course, but it is nice if you don't want to or are just not mentally able to sell into weakness and buy into strength 👍
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Farmer
Farmer@SowingAlphaSeed·
Thought experiment on using constrained leverage. I think you can fairly efficiently get 3x leverage using long-dated $QQQ calls. Suppose you want to run a beta of 1.2. Option 1: 60% SPY 20% QQQ calls 20% cash = 1.2 beta Option 2: 120% SPY -20% cash = 1.2 beta Now suppose the market crashes 50%. Option 1: 30% (of initial account value) SPY 0% QQQ calls 20% cash = 0.6 beta, down 50% Option 2: 60% SPY -20% cash = 1.5 beta, down 60% Obviously not a free lunch, you pay for the leverage and there are other risks. But it definitely has some attractive portfolio construction properties.
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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
Now that IV has spiked so much on futures options, you're paying a huge premium to speculate via options To me the value is going further back on the curve There's a chance this could all get resolved But how much downside do you really have from $67?
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🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
You can still buy WTI crude futures a year out at $67 a barrel The break even price last year per Dallas fed survey was $65 a barrel in the US So a year out, You can still buy oil at US break even price in the middle of the greatest oil crisis in history
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🔋 Lambdabraham
🔋 Lambdabraham@lambdabraham·
So I am hearing $EOSE cogs is 90% driven by /CL. The more you know
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🔋 Lambdabraham
🔋 Lambdabraham@lambdabraham·
I quite dislike that we look like /NQ again $EOSE. Bot some more Jan27 10/20Cs
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🔋 Lambdabraham
🔋 Lambdabraham@lambdabraham·
@x_times_1 Jumped into a bunch of Jan27 +10C/-20C spreads. High ivol, but prob worth it
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X_times_1
X_times_1@x_times_1·
$EOSE.... Could be a bit of consolidation but Risk/Reward is back in a great position on EOSE if you believe they can book orders and scale. I expect to see a 3-4x this year if they actually perform at 80% of their targets (as per normal for Joe.)
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🔋 Lambdabraham
🔋 Lambdabraham@lambdabraham·
@Zerosumgame33 For a 1k$ notional bet that will not be fired or removed from the position of CEO until EOY, what is your ask?
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0SG
0SG@Zerosumgame33·
$EOSE stock goes back to $10+ overnight with new CEO change. Place your bets.
The Real Greg Reyes@joceyreyes209

The stock sales by BOD members between the 4-8th of December are a particularly bad look when viewed through the lens of Thursdays botched earnings call. That was a “Tell” As was the bazar indensity announcement Video. After watching it my reaction was … WTF was that? No context or supporting customer quotes or orders. I have done close to 100 product launches and ALWAYS was able to have supportive customer quote. That was another tell. When Joe whet to Davos I expected a larger order announcement or something substantive with Joe stepping on the world stage. Instead all we got was this photo of with the “Elizabeth Holmes” black turtleneck and a fur coat that made him look like a pimp. I know that many are focused on production issues. They are a smaller concern to me. I’m are more concerned about the lack of orders during the biggest energy super cycle of our lifetime. Where are the orders? Are they not able to sell? Are they not able to close deals? Are they not able to forecast? Are they not price competitive? WTF would you give a weak answer about Q1 revenue when asked if Q1 would be flat? “Somewhere around there” was not an answer that inspired confidence. With 6 weeks to go in the quarter how do you not know what you will book and ship for Q1? WTF would you guide to only $300m for 2026 and say it is based solely on existing backlog and doesn’t include additional orders? Are they planning on not booking any incremental shippable orders in 2026? …. Who ever came up with messaging should be fired as well. After this disaster if I was on the BOD I would be advocating for a CEO change. I would fire Nathan and hire a competent sales leader that is capable of hitting their forecast. Clearly Nathan can’t sell or close an order …. Or both. If they intended to “kitchen sink” the quarter they do a piss poor job. Here we sit with the stock down 60% and are left with more questions than answers coming out of the call that are compounded by numerous inconsistencies, omissions and incongruities when compared to what they said during their November earnings call. Were they lying then or are they lying now or are they just incapable forecasting and communicating with investors as the sell side analyst pointed out in his know when he lowered his rating and abandoned any prices target. I 35 years I have never seen an analysts give the middle finger to management like Joe Osha from Guggenheim did in his research note on eose post earnings. Retail shareholders are pissed. Institutional shareholders are pissed. Management had lost all credibility with every one of their constituents short of a small handful of cult members on X marking excuses for them or positing theories with no data or facts. It will take time to rebuild trust …. Assuming current management is around.

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DM
DM@dmottco·
$eose if you don’t think John Mahaz can figure out how to build a plastic tub of water with insane margins I suggest you go fuck a goat
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