🔋 Lambdabraham
1.3K posts

🔋 Lambdabraham
@lambdabraham
Building things and taking risks
Katılım Nisan 2015
687 Takip Edilen75 Takipçiler

Wow - wish there was someway to play this in the public markets…
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
PUTIN: I THINK THE UKRAINE CONFLICT IS COMING TO AN END
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@alex_avoigt I'll sell you that bet at 30%, meaning for a bet size of 1k$, I'll pay you 700$ if Tesla closes any coming day in 2026 above its ATH, otherwise you pay me 300$
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🔋 Lambdabraham retweetledi

@DeepDishEnjoyer I used to drink them too. They are usually mixed poorly and are too sweet for me now, so yeah
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@lambdabraham i'm having a helles now. like i wanted a nice radler when it was nice and warm outside sue me
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so far this was the biggest unexpected surprise. i didn't even have königlicher hirschgarten picked out in advance, i just needed a nearby eating establishment to nymphenburg palace while i waited for my ticket time. the steckerlfisch may be the best fish i've ever had
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer
now this is living
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@DeepDishEnjoyer You do not know what you have just done 🫢😳
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🔋 Lambdabraham retweetledi

@DeepDishEnjoyer @ryxcommar Once you know how the beta is made you don't want it anymore
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@ryxcommar no and i actually will never buy a s&p 500 etf because it contains certified garbage like tesla
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🔋 Lambdabraham retweetledi

* Start war
* Give 5 different reasons for war
* 80% disapproval
* Immediately blow up little girls school surrendering all moral high ground
* Kill leadership which is immediately replaced by more radical leadership
* Declare victory
* Have no contingency plan for closing the straits of Hormuz
* Have no clear victory conditions
* Gas prices skyrocket
* Economy craters
* Service members killed, taxes wasted, bases blown up, no material gain for the American public
* Continue declaring victory
Worst war ever conducted
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@NPianosi @GrassmanWilliam Where is the bottom video from the two Wall Street geniuses on YouTube already???
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$EOSE
Even our favourite indicator is not looking good right now @GrassmanWilliam
Apparently, this is the second week in a row without felt deliveries. Never happened in recent months I think.
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I guess it's not AI anymore is it?
F****** clowns
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
Insane image from the bridge of a container ship arriving at the Port of Salalh in Oman earlier today, as flames engulf multiple port facilities and oil tanks at the MINA Petroleum Facility, resulting from several impacts by one-way attack drones launched by Iran.
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@SowingAlphaSeed You pay interest and for the convexity of course, but it is nice if you don't want to or are just not mentally able to sell into weakness and buy into strength 👍
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Thought experiment on using constrained leverage. I think you can fairly efficiently get 3x leverage using long-dated $QQQ calls. Suppose you want to run a beta of 1.2.
Option 1:
60% SPY
20% QQQ calls
20% cash
= 1.2 beta
Option 2:
120% SPY
-20% cash
= 1.2 beta
Now suppose the market crashes 50%.
Option 1:
30% (of initial account value) SPY
0% QQQ calls
20% cash
= 0.6 beta, down 50%
Option 2:
60% SPY
-20% cash
= 1.5 beta, down 60%
Obviously not a free lunch, you pay for the leverage and there are other risks. But it definitely has some attractive portfolio construction properties.
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@x_times_1 Jumped into a bunch of Jan27 +10C/-20C spreads. High ivol, but prob worth it
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@Zerosumgame33 For a 1k$ notional bet that will not be fired or removed from the position of CEO until EOY, what is your ask?
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