Lance Roberts

S&P Market Outlook: Bull Vs. Bear Last week, we discussed what historically happens in the market follow 5-weeks of consecutive declines. Now, the question is what happens next following the market surge last week. We look at the bull and bear case. open.substack.com/pub/lancerober…

4-16-26 New Highs in a Broken Market — What’s Really Going On? $SPX $QQQ Markets pushed to new highs despite elevated valuations, high interest rates, and ongoing war in Iran, driven largely by short-term momentum and increased speculative activity like 0DTE options. This creates a disconnect where price action overrides fundamentals in the near term. While the rally is real and participation has been rewarded, the risk is assuming this is a stable bull trend, but it is not. Furthermore, history suggests midterm years bring volatility into summer, so investors should stay flexible, respect momentum, but continue managing risk and expect choppiness, pullbacks, and volatility spikes. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet

Is this just a short-covering rally, or the start of a more durable advance? Here;s my latest Before the Bell Report:

4-16-26 What Will the Fed Do Next? x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@kenndavis4 I am eyeballing Wyoming.

@LanceRoberts Move to cities <50000 population and see much lower expenses

It will be interesting to watch New York to see if the new policies enacted will lower living costs... or not.

The Nasdaq has closed higher for 11 consecutive sessions. Similar streaks have led to the index being higher one year later 100% of the time, with an average gain of +26%. But that doesn't mean you don't get a buyable dip along the way.

"The last 110 days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950... the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10 days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10-day returns. Since 1950, there have been 20 instances in which the stock market rose this much in 10 days. Next 12 month returns avg 19% with 17 up and 3 down years.'" - @themarketear

@waquoitwonder Reminds me of Long Island Tea company in 2017 when they committed to Blockchain.

@LanceRoberts A lil' FOMO?! And how about BIRD up +582% yesterday? Moving on from sneakers to AI...!! dotcomdotcomdotcom....LIVES!

Despite all of the hand-wringing over oil prices and Iran, the market just printed its 5th all-time high yesterday.

Activity in 0DTE options is surging, with increasing adoption among institutional investors to hedge against headline-driven macro risks. We all live in a casino now.

@Nerman5695 It's a good reminder. @NautilusCap does really good work.

The recent bout of volatility is about par for the course during the mid-term election period. We are likely to see more of it heading into November. However, after the election results are in, we could see a strong sprint to finish the year. In other words, don't forget to manage risk, as volatility will likely be both a friend and a foe this year. h/t @ISABELNET_SA

@ISABELNET_SA Thank you.

🇺🇸 S&P 500 For the S&P 500, the best and worst days often land right next to each other. Miss the best sessions and you leave returns on the table, but dodging the sharpest selloffs does more for long‑term performance 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @LanceRoberts $spx #spx

Watch the full show here: youtube.com/c/TheRealInves… x.com/LanceRoberts linkedin.com/in/realinvestm… facebook.com/RealInvestment…

With inflation trends shifting, economic data sending mixed signals, and markets hovering near key levels, the big question is: what will the Federal Reserve do next? Join @michaellebowitz and me as we analyze the data on #TheRealInvestmentShow, streaming-live at 6am CT on YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, & X. (Links are in the comments)

Daily Market Trading Update: April 16, 2026 open.substack.com/pub/lancerober…

Analyst EPS optimism has faded a bit following the burst of exuberance in outlooks from last year. Still very elevated though, and a further reversion aligned with slowing economic growth rates will certainly impact equities. h/t @albertedwards99

@CaldarellaB So be smart money 💰

@LanceRoberts While the real economy suffocates, the index is being pumped to create exit liquidity for smart money.

-After a 7.5% decline, the markets hit an all-time high today. The next move is likely a pullback to turn recent resistance into support and work off some of the short-term exuberance. However, the risk of a larger "bear market" has been greatly diminished for now. -If you have been listening to the "Persistent Purveyors of Doom," and missed the move, this is why you shouldn't. -The markets are NOT STATIC. They are constantly adjusting and compensating for risk. When sentiment and technical conditions become overly bearish, that allows for the previous bullish trend to resume. Which is exactly what just happened.

@PaulJames120472 Certainly a lot of that. And a pullback is likely. However, there were a lot of people saying the markets were going to crash over the conflict, reality is that markets price geopolitical events in very quickly.

The data isn’t legit and you know it. The war isn’t remotely over (if you’re paying attention) so this rally is going to get crushed when reality sets in. Whatever’s going on I can confidently say we’re not heading into some Goldy locks era anytime soon that would justify this move. This screams short covering and options balancing.