@realharveymark In this current environment, do you prefer long vol instruments or index puts?
English
larrylegend718
556 posts
@Wild_Randomness @BenKizemchuk @50ptMAE Thank you, you’ve been one of the best follows out here. Keep up the great work brother!
English
@larrylegend718 Appreciate that!
Those two @BenKizemchuk @50ptMAE are killers
EWZ had a great 100% run from 2025 open… agreed on the rationale, on a technical basis:
Daily is sketch until > $38
Weekly says buy into 34-35, gtfo sub 33
Monthly says it could be a longer term secular winner
English
They don’t even mock me for bearposting w/ Hindenburg Omens anymore
They just look at me like this
Mandelbrot@Wild_Randomness
Can’t stop, won’t stop
English
@Beyond_Charting How do you project your scope of bullishness? Underside retest over next few months? New ath?
English
#nasdaq100 $ndx $qqq I know most thought I was crazy but accumulation is worth paying attention to. Net bullish indeed and I used this morning's dip to add to one position.
Beyond-Charting 📈@Beyond_Charting
#NASDAQ100 $ndx $qqq Updating my thesis from Feb 9. While shorting worked out fine, this no longer appears to be a 2025 analogue. All signs point to heavy accumulation during consolidation - net bullish. May just need more time, then up!
English
@Wild_Randomness dxy divs forming to make a lower high + indices on 200ma bouncing? Think this bounce is potentially THE bounce or unsustainable given HTF weakness?
English
@Wild_Randomness Does this change your outlook on q’s puts?
English
$NVDA
Closed out some 3DTE - 7DTE calls for +40%.
Wanted to hold these through earnings but flat due to the bump today thru gen. resistance coupled with the history of the past 6 earnings (5 mins to sell on next NY open).
Chart still looks good ofc. May buy some spot instead
Mandelbrot@Wild_Randomness
$NVDA NVDA remains interesting here. Past 6 earnings reports have all been sell the news— go back and take a look yourself. Implied move is the lowest it’s been in a while at a hair above 5%. Yet the market has never needed a big beat more than it does now. Chart is set up fairly well. Both from a USD perspective as well as on a MAGS perspective. Personally, I struggle to see how this could turn the indices around sustainably given how it seems every single earnings report has gotten sold this quarter… is a 4% earnings whisper beat really going to change all these macro forces in play? Could this rising tide really lift all boats? Just this inability to rationalize a bull case may indicate it’s the proper hedge for bearish tech positions. Though I admit the most contrarian play here is to short this thing given how well the charts are set up… but I’m not doing it for that very reason. Odds are ofc that Kenny G just makes money off all the options buyers but I’m thinking about it…
English
English
@KunPengTrades @NotSpikeG I rarely do anything under 1/2 months
I do have some spy puts for this upcoming Friday that I bought here
But majority is 2-4 months (I give up some of the crazy % moves but I can size my ideas bigger and stay more patient)
English
$AAPL
The Apple is falling from the tree
Newton discovers gravity
+140%
GIF
Mandelbrot@Wild_Randomness
$AAPL How this chart is looking at me rn
English
@Beyond_Charting You’re still expecting this to be a bounce per your higher timeframe nasdaq chart, but with still rising spx and as tech transitions?
English
#NASDAQ100 $ndx Support kicking in and becoming established exactly where we'd expect. Now getting some + divergences.
English
@Yam_Trades @ConvexValue What do you make of volsignals’ take on spx outlook? Respect both your opinions
English
$SPX
Today looks like an original game of buy the dip
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Term structure in lower half of range for past weeks; Saw a large spike, collapse and now normalization in the range
--- Yellow = Today, Red = Yesterday
-Gamma surface from yesterday (6920 Cumulative Flip); Steep surface vic 7000 to the upside)
-Overnight straddle is~ 40 points giving us an ON straddle range of [6901, 6981]
-Morning straddle is 32 and using spot 6963 gives us a range of [6931,6995]
-Weekly Straddle remains [6823,7041] - Can we get another compressed weekly close?
-PM POLRs at 6900 and 6980.
-Overnight Volume is below average with more put volume: 7000 calls and 6885 puts highest volume
-Deltas are negatvie overnight.
Net Exposure from @OptionsDepth
$SPX
-Pivot is 6940
-Over pivot is 6955, 6965, 6975, 6985, 7000, 7020
-Under Pivot is 6925, 6905, 6890, 6875, 6855
Thoughts
-The overall market has coiled for weeks, Let's see if we begin to setup a breakout from this consolidation range to the upside. All we need to Tech to participate.
-Today looks to be an original game of buy the dip; I think next week looks promising for upside over 7000 and think there's a strong chance we see a challenge of it tomorrow.
-Few areas are interesting for a BTD opportunity, 6925, 6900, 6880. I don't really see a great short opportunity on the tape as we're back in the range of weeks past but a test of 75 against 78/80 looks like an OK opportunity if betting against America is your thing.
#PMFS is back tomorrow with @iV_trader at 915 EST
English
@Wild_Randomness Are you hedging de-dollarization with any international equities?
English
$SPX $DXY
This is concerning brothers—
This week needs to see DXY resolve in a wick here…
Indices look absolutely terrible when adjusting for USD weakness
Mandelbrot@Wild_Randomness
$SPX $DXY This is not a good look… The last thing a US equity bull wants to see is another leg down in the DXY. (this implies capital flows outside of the US)
English
@YippoNoodle Thinking something along usau/drd/goro? Dated a few months out?
English
The paper slam following the Greenland news yesterday was another excellent entry on gold and junior miners. GDXJ up 6% from the trough. Buying calls on these paper slams continues to be free money.
Next play is calls on poorly covered junior miners with unhedged production.
Noodle@YippoNoodle
GDXJ up another 5% today. Precious metals more similar to crypto than people think. As the trend goes on, you should be going down to risk curve (in this case junior miners with unhedged production that haven't pumped). When these assets sell-off, usually a signal to derisk.
English
@YippoNoodle Do you play ibit/etha/trad-crypto options? As far as options for non-vpn/US folks
English
The reason you should be in crypto, in addition to equities, and despite crypto’s underperformance, is that if you i) are patient, ii) can think critically, and iii) cleanse yourself of the bag-holding mentality, every month you will find a trade that can beat the S&P 500’s annual return in a single week.
For instance, equities are up ~17% YTD, yet if you had longed ETH at the beginning of December, you would be up ~23%. People complain that crypto has underperformed equities. Yes, it has if you just bought spot and held. But crypto is a different asset class and requires a different approach.
Why would you hold a 10x long for weeks when the entire market is designed for high-velocity rotations? There’s a hot ball of money constantly moving through themes and sectors, and your job is to determine where it’s going next and when conditions shift from risk-on to risk-off. Selection matters, but, just like in equities, the correct identification of risk-on periods has mattered far more than picking individual names.
The issue with crypto is that you have infinite supply and sporadic, short-lived bursts of demand. Most of the major moves in ETH, SOL, and BTC happen in brief, violent windows that you can tail quite consistently. That’s why leveraging into clean setups makes more sense than blindly holding spot (in most cases).
I prefer to hold spot in equities, which have an infinite bid, and use crypto to capture 10–20% bursts that play out over a few days. Crypto often gives you only a handful of days each year where true outperformance happens, with most coins historically capturing the majority of their annual gains in very tight periods. To me, it’s far more attractive to tail these rallies with leverage than sit dead in spot for months on end.
One of the biggest psyops in this space is the idea that you always need to be invested or earning yield. You don’t. Crypto can still outperform equities if you pick the right spots and only trade when the setup is clean or when you have a clear edge.
Equities are for compounding. Crypto is for asymmetric bursts. Combine both and the opportunity set becomes far better than either alone.
English
@Wild_Randomness I How do you resist the urge to buy resistance? Play on daily trend recapture and add on confirmation? Bet small on breakout? I suppose the break of daily trend was HH
English
$WGMI $IREN $HUT
Absolutely cooking to start 2026…
Kitchen’s hot
GIF
Mandelbrot@Wild_Randomness
$WGMI $IREN Starting to cook… Kitchen gets hotter if we close above these levels.
English
@Wild_Randomness Capflows played HYPD during hype’s last run. It doesn’t quite have a weekly div and haven’t looked at any statistical correlation- could it play as an equity proxy?
English
$HYPE
Now sitting directly on the 2025 POC.
If we get the div. locked in, look for a move to fill the volume gap into weekly trend.
FYI— I’m just reading the chart, I literally know nothing about the drama surrounding this coin/Lighter.
Mandelbrot@Wild_Randomness
$HYPE If the weekly closes green, it would lock in the first weekly bull div in history for this coin.
English
@Wild_Randomness Have cut ct down the past several years to high yield accounts, who post less day-to-day alpha. Few have had the pulse of btc and equities like this account. Keep it up man
English
$BTC
Not many wanted anything to do with this at 85 keks… how about now?
Mandelbrot@Wild_Randomness
$BTC Believe this is BTC’s shot at putting in a true countertrend rally. Structure is quite similar to March/april 2025 (would ideally see successively lower wicks though, but the candles are quite similar). This would imply the weekly closes somewhere around here, and early into next week we get the final wick down to low 80s / high 70s before a hammer reversal. (I.e. one more Santa = Satan rally meme then Santa arrives right on schedule leaving those in disbelief).) That’s your take a chance moment imo. If 80 fails to hold then prepare for a second leg down (look back at 2022 action for reference).
English
@Beyond_Charting @MarhelmData Have been very much enjoying your charts this year. Clean and objective, also been trying to express some of your plays as options. I’d love to hear your occasional plays as well. Keep up the great work (and reply guy status)!
English
@MarhelmData Epic levels of gloom and doom in the #energy #crudeoil sector. Sentiment dismal, record non-commercial shorts, yet the commercial-producers are uber long. The sector and related services stocks are have very bullish structure. I know where my money is positioned! $xle
English
@Going2Disappear Any historical evidence for small multi-day fakeouts?
English
@Wild_Randomness @PegasusFund Still lots of time, showing strength last couple days but still diverging and lots of time on puts. How’s your gut on this?
English
$HOOD
Robinhood is back on my radar after this equity Chad (linked tweet) started cautioning it earlier today.
Started building Nov/Dec puts today.
As @PegasusFund mentioned, it’s AUM ~= market cap… upside may be exhausting itself (despite its various revenue streams), just need a catalyst for the turn…
On that note, we also got a headline today that Ken Griffin is interested in exploring prediction markets… not great.
(Image 2)
All while Vlad unloads half a billion on everyone’s head over the past two weeks… (thanks SPX inclusion?) (image 3)
Technically, the stock locked in a daily bear div today, so will keep on averaging just to this on intraday rips provided this holds…. (Image 1)
Ugly bearish engulfing candle today. And I’ll remind everyone that HOOD topped a week before everything else rolled over back in Feb… it can lead. (Image 4)
$145 overnight.
Pegasus@PegasusFund
Took some HOOD puts. Its AUM is about $300~B and its market cap is $130b. If you want to bet that the economy slows down it’s the perfect play now that it is trading so close to its AUM SCHW’s AUM is $11.23T and its market cap is $176b
English