Scrooge’s offspring

@aleabitoreddit 6961? more upstream than AAOI

Last year I called out $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, and Innolight before the supercycle... This year: Found $SOI, which was the SiPH substrate = $AXTI. Then $SIVE, which was the CPO = $LITE. Might have found the CPO equivalent of $AAOI. Curious if anyone can guess?

@PhotonCap Are you leaning one way or the other?

reddit.com/r/POETTechnolo… Came across a Reddit thread on r/POETTechnologiesInc discussing the latest PhotonCap piece. Genuinely impressed by the depth -- one commenter walked through Polariton's nanoscale coupling IP, Marvell's path to module assembly independence, and the H2 2028 timing all on their own. A separate KISS counter-thesis (NDA-liability-only) also held up throughout. Worth reading both sides.

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on 6961’s earnings? Seems like market focused on the irrelevant lower guidance due to dissapointing life science segment. Seems like a decent spot to add. Cheers

Enplas (6961) at ~$985M seems kinda interesting. 
They hold two chokepoints: 1. Dominant supplier for MLAs (micro lens arrays). Eg. SiPH switches, 1.6T, 3.2T for photonics. 
 2. Oligopoly supplier for IC Test sockets (AI Chip Testing) Cash on hand: ~$155M, no debt. Equity-to-Asset Ratio: ~89% (50%+ usually is solid), so low downside risk imo. 
And their speculated customers: 1, Photonics (MLAs): Highly probable: Innolight, Eoptolink, Furukawa, Intel (SiPh). And prob $COHR, $LITE. 2. GPU/ASICs (Test Sockets): prob $TSM, ASE, types use these to likely test $NVDA GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs (Google Ironwood is highly probable). "expanding mass production orders for major GPU manufacturers, and for ASIC-related projects for hyperscalers."
 Then at OFC: OFC: “We will be showcasing our new products for 800Gbps and 1.6Tbps transceivers and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) that support today’s rapid technological advancements in AI.” Basically you have a company that supplies T1 semis, foundries, hyperscalers, that benefits from 1.6T from MLA photonics segment + CPO TAM expansion later from OFC products. Was one my positions wanted to share my thoughts about since it seemed p cool at sub <$1B MC.

@Geo_papic @jnconkle @citrini Fuck yeah

Who wants @citrini-Cousins collabo?

@TheMaineWonk @grok @MartinShkreli I’m home with the downies. Amazing how people seek external neuromodulation via virtue signalling. Cosplaying as judge Judy. Zero free will. Your affect drives your cognition.

@grok @MartinShkreli So the dude sentenced to 7 years in prison of securities fraud and conspiracy is lying simply because he thinks Americans are too stupid to know the difference between GAAP provision and cash federal income taxes paid? What a shocker.

Palantir very plainly paid $23m in income tax and $156m in payroll tax. That's 0/2. Are you retarded?

@cl_udc @Alisvolatprop12 @Zone9977359 Grand display of a lack of theory of mind. Zone9 seems to project himself onto the situation without knowing much about the context. Nothing wrong with that, we’ve all made that mistake.

저도 불특정 한사람은 이런말을 할 수 있어야 할 것 같아서 합니다. 앞뒤 배경도 모르면서 남에게 이래라 저래라 하는 이런 글이 더 피로합니다. 평소 도움 많이 받았다면서 전후사정 알아볼 생각도 없이 알림 오는것만 보고 적당히 하라느니, 피로하다느니, 스스로의 정신건강을 돌아보라느니 너무 말 편하게 하는거 아닌가요? 그냥 남이 무슨 일에 엮였건 '내가 알림 걸어놨는데 이런 내용 보기 싫으니까 조용히 하라'는거잖아요? 본인이 가족얘기 엮여서 공공연하게 도발당해도 그렇게 스스로의 정신건강을 돌아보며 삭이시겠는가요? 백번 양보해서 이런 내용이 불편하다면 본인이 뮤트하는게 상식적인거지 자기가 하고싶은 글 올리는 SNS에 이래라 저래라 하는게 상식적인건가요? 스스로를 돌아보라고 말하기 전에 본인부터 돌아보시기 바랍니다.

다 좋은 데 일관성 지킵시다. 감탄고토 하지 말고. 그리고 “때리는 시어머니보다 말리는 시누이가 더 밉다.” 이 속담이 왜 회자 되는 지 이해를 못 하는 분들이 많네요.

Is it better for finances to spend on ex-military spending? If you add in 3-5% of deficit spending on the military, does it still look better? Who will buy the sovereign bonds? Europe's regulatory system is a significant impediment to innovation and growth. Tough to attract capital

@Manhattva 100% bullshit. We have a much better public finances than the US

Europe is about to understand why they’ve been able to afford “free healthcare” for everyone.

@IanCarrollShow @LeoTerrellDOJ Evidenc?

@LeoTerrellDOJ Because it was an attempted CIA/mosaad coupe. This is all propaganda.

Why do the influencers always speak out for the people in Gaza but never for the innocent lives in Iran? Asking for a friend.

@citrini @01101100101001x How do you think it happens? Could easily see Trump jawboning ahead of the Monday open or close?

@01101100101001x If you think the way that bear markets happen is every day stocks go down, you’re about to lose all of your money.

Likely going to put in a bottom on Monday…in the short term, at least.

@Geo_papic @TheMarketDog I can sort of see how last week was step 5, but maybe there's a reset after the US/Israel escalation. What do you think of Andy's framework? x.com/dampedspring/s…

@Geo_papic @TheMarketDog How was last week's step 5? Aren't we just beginning a new round of negotiations after the US/Israelis killed off their top brass? Will it go through on the first attempt post escalation? Although I could also see how the escalation was a convoluted step 3, 4 and 5.

Are we at 4 and bombs start flying again next weekend? @Geo_papic?

Lol, why do people still listen to Tucker? His views are so extreme and unfounded, no evidence, no scientific method, just very emotional and neurotic. He's hurting his credibility in the process. He's gaming people by peddling fear to boost dopamine and generate clicks to earn money.

Tucker Carlson just claimed that if Iran surrenders unconditionally, American soldiers will rape Iranian wives and daughters—and that Trump is actively moving toward using nuclear weapons against Iran. This came right after Trump publicly trashed him, calling Tucker "not MAGA" and "not smart." In response, Tucker dropped an interview blasting Trump's approach to the Iran conflict, painting the former president as pushing for extreme, barbaric outcomes in a war Tucker calls "disgusting and evil." The rift is now wide open: one side sees Tucker as unhinged and delusional for these inflammatory accusations while the other views it as a desperate stand against endless foreign wars.

@philoinvestor So you think Iran is winning or is about to start a prolonged war? What’s the incentive to do so?

Incredible cope. This is on another level.

Wow you’re a bundle of fun. It’s a top down view that impacts most stocks. What you’re suggesting shows that you don’t really get it. They had no clue the report would become this popular and create a visceral response. Nothing remotely close has ever happened to Citrini. Good effort but very boring topic. You should move to Europe and help them regulate the financial system.

And you think Europe doesn’t have the same version of Epstein? And if it did surface they would handle it better than the US. That’s the implicit assumption you’re making in order for your argument to have legs. Furthermore two wrongs don’t make a right. We should dig into the reasons why the US makes these claims and judge for ourselves instead of making ad hominem tribal attacks

I think a country that shows extreme incompetence in handling the so-called "Esptein" files ( for example ) should not even have the audacity to cast opinion on other countries' electoral processes. Election laws in Romania are strict: Media blackouts Campaign funds Voter ID ... just to name a few. You break the rules, you get canceled. Simple, no lobby, no exceptions. Oh , and btw , ANYONE was better than G.C.

🚨🇺🇸🇪🇺 BREAKING: U.S. House Judiciary Committee confirm that the EU interfered in 8 European elections. 🇸🇰 Slovakia (2023) 🇳🇱 The Netherlands (2023&2025) 🇫🇷 France (2024) 🇷🇴 Romania (2024) 🇲🇩 Moldova (2024 🇮🇪 Ireland (2024&2025) This people talk about democracy 24/7... Source: House Gov.

@mattculluk @AndreasSteno Spot on this is the nuance and where one can find value today

@AndreasSteno Sure you can write your own tin pot system . If you are a business with audit requirements how the hell is Claude going to get you through SOX? The compliance risk is a significant reason people buy software . Marksown is a breath of fresh air as a document format

I get that letting coupons roll off and be replaced by bills is a gradual tightening, but doesn’t it tighten financial conditions at the margin, which is disinflationary? I guess cutting the front end will help offset the tightening. If the objective is to allow term premia to return and give banks more of an incentive to lend in the real economy, how does that help if credit is already available via private debt? I guess private credit spreads are wider potentially. Not sure though.

@harveyrosenblum Less distortion of economy and financial markets

Fed balance sheet reduction 101 under the Warsh, Miran, Bessent, Trump dovish fed fund rate, hawkish balance sheet regime - a workable plan In order to reduce the balance sheet assets you need to reduce the liabilities The liabilities are Roughly 850BN in TGA 2.4TN in Currency in circulation 2.9TN in bank reserves How do you reduce these things TGA. There are two ways 1. Term out debt reducing the amount of bills rolling per 5 Day period which lowers the statutory requirement for TGA 2. Agree with the Fed that any bills owned by the Fed don't count in that calculation and increase the bills holding of the Fed while decreasing the duration holdings CIC Encourage the growth of Stable Coins which are bought with CIC and which the coin is funded with Tbills. The simply accounting (its more complicated) is Fed swaps its assets (Tbills) to the stable coin minter and is paid CIC for the trade. Assets and liabilities drop. This is particularly useful in onshoring and replacing foreign held CIC with stable coins Bank Reserves This is the one that the myopic repo traders at the Fed and the narrow minded plumbing experts say can't be done. It can be done. While a handful of banks have scarce reserves and they must be protected which puts an upward pressure on reserves and balance sheet, the banking system overall is awash in excess reserves. A simple fix would be a cap on reserves held by banks such that if over the cap the bank would receive zero IORB. Then slowly reduce the cap. The simple accounting transaction would be Reserves over the cap are spent on Fed balance sheet assets. Assets down reserves down with no threat to any bank with scarce reserves. I would also offset this policy by instituting a minimum reserve requirement which forces certain banks with scarce reserves to add. When I add all that up I think over time TGA can come down by 200BN CIC can come down by 400BN Bank Reserves can come down by 600BN And the SOMA portfolio can come down by 1.2TN The Fed is narrow minded in its approach to maintaining the rate corridor. My solution would address the top end of the rate corridor by instituting a minimum reserve requirement and the bottom by instituting a penalty for those who hold reserves over a maximum AND providing Fed assets to buy with those penalized reserves while lowering the maximum over time to acclimate the excess reserves folks without crashing out the bottom of the corridor.

Median voter couldn’t care less about protectionism. To the contrary, polls show the median US voter is pro globalisation. I find it remarkable that people buy into the idea that the US has been on the losing side of globalisation. There are two parts to the equation. Everyone benefit from cheaper goods and some lost jobs in the process

Strong dollar has worked in our favor for years, as we have been net importers. A weak dollar when other countries want to re-globalize supply chains WITHOUT the US seems like it won’t work out so well.

It’s horrible but has this been going on before Trump? Honest question. Have things changed or have we changed? After checking across LLMs I see that roughly 3.3m people were deported under Obama’s two terms. Under Trump’s first term he deported 1.2m roughly. And currently it’s 650k deported under Trump’s second term. And that’s after the 5X increase in illegal immigration during Biden’s term. I also have a tough time understanding why the left is for looser borders when in the history of all labour/left parties the focus has always been on protecting native born labour from cheap migrant competition (capitalists/right leaning parties have always been pro immigration to dilute the price of labour by increasing the labour supply).

these psychopaths are snatching little kids and sending them to detention centers in texas without even attempting to notify another parent or family member. I wish this was a line crossed, but it feels like the general public forgot all about the baby jails during the first term