LeeLeeks

@StealthQE4 At this stage, you really think he gives a fk when he does how many donkey stock trades for the past year. And the worst thing? The congress allows it with the iran vote.

Bonds look like they want to revolt. The vigilantes are back. I believe Trump is going to try to go into Iran and bonds are going to throw a fit when he does. Higher yields. Chaos. Recession or worse. We need an exit strategy in Iran ASAP.

@GabGrowth GG. He concluded SE and meli fight and put all eggs in SE instead.

Stan Druckenmiller increased his $SE position by 16.5% and sold out of his $MELI position in Q1 2026.

@fivepointscap Left 0.2% of his portfolio. Either he has not sold off completely that 13f has not shown yet or he keeping it as a wait and see. The next 13f is critical. Overall, its not favoured.

@lee_leeks He sold out completely?

Druckenmiller added 156k shares of Sea Limited $SE in Q1

@the_zack_zhu Just can't beat the cheap goods from china. Imo, the ranking of priority in ecommerce goes 1. Price 2. Goods Reliability 3. Goods variety (brands and no brands) 4. Speed 5. Customer service. Just the first three already create headache.

$MELI and $SE are becoming increasingly similar. For $MELI, the company appears to be leaning further into slower shipping. Based on the gap between items sold growth and GMV growth, $MELI also seems to be directing more traffic toward lower-AOV products. At the same time, it is pushing deeper into Chinese sellers and cross-border operations. For $SE, the company has moved aggressively into fulfillment, with 5 fulfillment centers in Brazil, up from 2 at the end of 2025. $SE is also expanding its brand selection quickly, with brands now accounting for 15% of overall GMV.

@the_zack_zhu @EugeneNg Shopee is a monster in SEA.

@EugeneNg If i'm not remember wrong. This have been two quarters in a row! Hard to believe that third-party reports indicates Lazada GMV are flat in 2025 since they should have raise take rates substantially.

Alibaba's Lazada revenues declined in 1Q26, with International Commerce Retail growing +5% vs Sea Limited’s Shopee revenues growing +45%.

@TidefallCapital I see KIE etf and its also flat. I think if i screen alot of insurance co, you will see alot flat. I think insurance as a sector is structurally being speculated to struggle due to rates or something. Fairfax might have to show out of wonder performance, unlikely.

I think about this slide too much $FFH.TO Prem started as a door-to-door salesman. The stock has gone nowhere for a year, but if sentiment turns, Fairfax could move to the top of its peer group on a since-inception basis. 1.1x bv, 7.5x pe, retired 25% of shares over past 8 years.

@fivepointscap @CapexAndChill Yes and no. If you reinvest because you can't keep up with the capacity/demand, that is bullish. If you reinvest by subsidies (free anythings), that's bearish. Land grabbing to compete is a zero sum game for the market.

People need to remember a couple of things. One, the pie in Brazil is growing extremely fast. Both $SE and $MELI and even a couple others can grow and succeed. Second, Meli and Shopee fulfill different roles for people in Brazil. In the same way that Shein and Temu are very popular in the U.S. but don’t really take anything from Amazon. It’s not a perfect analogy, but Meli is Amazon and Shopee is Shein + Temu. Different customers, different types of orders, different purposes, etc. Both will succeed.

A lot of investor worry goes in to Brazil for $MELI. They just sold 56% more items this quarter. But if you look beyond Brazil the future is even brighter. Here is an estimate on how far behind other regions are in ecom compared to Brazil. Mexico: 2 to 3 years behind. Despite rapid e-commerce growth, Mexico lacks a universally adopted instant digital payment system like Brazil's Pix, forcing a continued reliance on cash-based payment alternatives at checkout. Chile: 3 to 4 years behind ecosystem scale. Although consumer banking penetration matches or exceeds Brazil's, Chile's much smaller population cannot support the massive, multi-tiered logistics networks required for hyper-scale fulfillment Argentina: 4 to 5 years behind. High consumer digital adoption is crippled by macroeconomic instability, hyperinflation, and historically strict import restrictions that eliminate supply chain predictability. Colombia: 4 to 6 years behind. A high unbanked population necessitates continued reliance on cash-on-delivery, while the country's mountainous geography creates severe logistical bottlenecks for fast, nationwide shipping. Peru: 6 to 8 years behind. Market maturity is severely delayed by low financial inclusion, a lack of consumer digital trust, and vastly underdeveloped domestic logistics infrastructure outside of the Lima metropolitan area. Combined these regions make up a GDP that is over twice as larger as Brazil but they currently only contribute to less than 50% of the consolidated revenues.

@DukeInShadows Fairfax got out of gold entirely?

Equinox acquires Orla to create $18.5B producer. $FFH.TO $OLA.TO theglobeandmail.com/business/indus…

@dcurras1 Topicus acquisition seems little. Not sure why nobody asked.

Yo! 👀 I know, first-hand, this company 🇪🇸 $TOI.V

@LorenzoBolsa He sold recently. Doesnt sounds good.

$MELI Baillie Gifford & Co. tiene a Mercado Libre como su 3° mayor posición en el último 13F, con un peso de 5.71%. Solo la superan $NVDA (7.26%) y $AMZN (5.98%). Además, también tiene $NU con 3.62%. Y no estamos hablando de cualquier gestor growth. Si tomamos como referencia una entrada en $AMZN cerca de US$3 en 2004 y hoy alrededor de US$270, estamos hablando de algo parecido a un +8,900%. En $TSLA, desde US$7 hasta ~US$440, el retorno sería de ~+6,185%. También fueron early investors en $NVDA en $20.. Obviamente eso no garantiza nada para $MELI. Pero cuando un inversor con ese historial de paciencia en compounders pone a Mercado Libre tan arriba en cartera, y encima la deja al lado de Amazon y Nvidia, como mínimo vale la pena prestarle atención.

@CapexAndChill Why pago and monee differ in their strategy?

Sharing my thoughts on $SE's earnings call Shopee's ad take rates went up, but their overall profit went down. This is mainly because they are taking that extra cash and pouring it into faster delivery, their VIP program, and getting new users. Similarly as $MELI, they are trading short-term margin for long-term market dominance. Their logistics are getting very cheap. In Indonesia, fast delivery orders jumped 35%, but the actual cost per order fell by roughly 20%. They also linked up with 7K physical retail stores. This is a big deal because it pulls normal offline shopping behavior directly into Shopee's app. The fulfillment center strategy is a massive advantage. They opened three new fulfillment centers in Brazil. Sea does not buy the buildings and just rent and equip them. This means they get their investment money back very fast. They also do not build empty warehouses hoping for future growth. They only build when they know the demand is already there, keeping the centers completely full and efficient. The ShopeeVIP program is essentially a key part of their long-term strategy. It has over 10 million users who stick around 80% of the time. These members end up spending 30% to 40% more and now account for 20% of all sales in Asia. Sea plans to make the VIP program highly profitable on its own by bringing in outside partners to share the costs and add benefits. They also launched Shopee VIP in April and you can see from the similar web data that is has been a huge momentum driver (specifically for android users). Monee is doing well in Brazil, passing $1B in loans. They did not just blindly copy their Asian strategy. They tapped directly into Brazil's open banking network. This outside data gives them a huge edge in figuring out who is safe to lend to, letting them grow fast without blowing up their risk. Monee's profit margins might actually go down over time, and that is completely on purpose. They are shifting from risky borrowers to safer users. These users do not pay as high of an interest rate, which hurts the margin percentage. But they borrow a lot more money. Sea cares about total absolute dollars of profit, not just a high percentage rate. They are also lending outside of Shopee now, funding big purchases like motorcycles and electronics in Indonesia. Off-Shopee loans already make up 20% of their portfolio. Garena had a huge quarter. Arena of Valor hit record numbers in its tenth year. Management says this is not a fluke and expects a record year for the game. They used to make special events just for local markets. Now, they make an event, like a Ramadan theme, and flip it into a global "desert treasure" theme for the rest of the world. They recycle the same code and art to get massive global reach, scoring 120 billion views while saving on development costs. The company is built to survive bad macro conditions. Higher gas prices hurt delivery costs, but Sea uses local government fuel subsidies to eat the extra expense. Normal inflation actually helps Shopee. Because money is tight, people stop buying fancy things offline and go to Shopee for cheap essentials. On top of that, AI is saving them a ton of money. Chatbots now handle 80% of customer service, dropping the cost per contact by 30%. AI also improved their overall purchase conversion rates by 14%. Great earnings!

@GabGrowth Not sure why. Is like market pricing like there can only be one. Is like ecommerce curse.

*MELI grows 49%* “SE must be losing market share” *SE grows 46%* “MELI must be losing market share”

@GabGrowth You can't just say we have the ability to control margin and think the market will believe. This is reality. Its a show me. Either you believe or not believe the management now since we dont know how low the margin can go. 0%?

This is true. Haven’t seen this bearish sentiment on $MELI especially. That said, I think there is generally one more level below negativity, which is indifference — or complete apathy to the stock.

@dampedspring We will see Warsh first fed rate adjustment on June 16,17. What is your thought?

Odds that today is the generational top for SPX? How close to zero can you get.

@ACIPartnerhship @BrownMarubozu I can't find many views on fairfax india. Am very concerned about the currency depreciation. It seems to be getting worse these years. And fairfax india seems to just accept it. Idk if bial is even enough to offset it. What are you guys thoughts?

@BrownMarubozu Management said as much at the annual (if memory serves).

$FIH.U Anyone have thoughts on how they fund this deal?

@sjb987654321 @CapexAndChill That said, i am obviously bullish on meli. I have positions in it. Its just...going to be painful and might not even come out winning at the end. I just think current investor should think properly because its clearly going to be very painful for all.

@lee_leeks @CapexAndChill I feel like growing revenue 50% is more than just "defending market share". It's not like Brazil Ecommerce as a whole is growing at 50% CAGR. They have levers to pull to raise margins in the future, namely advertising and subscriptions (which seemingly no one talks about)

Brazil app downloads for $MELI and $SE in 2021 vs 2025 The Brazilian market has grown so much the last 4 years

@sjb987654321 @CapexAndChill That is corp speak..we have the ability to raise margin and we were forced to lower margin to compete is a fine line in reinvestment. It sounded like Jd with their food business (terrible and idk whether it even still alive without loss). The market obviously don't believe.

@the_zack_zhu @ReneSellmann Not sure about that. Because it seems they are doing price war between each other again. Idk why but it seems to be ecommerce curse to fight to the bottom.

I think it’s so easy to be bullish on MELI. The only thing that I can pick on MELI is its in developing market and it more and more like bank. Other things are all quite good. Even when I think Shopee can hurt MELI e-commerce deeply in the long term, it’s still not a reason not to be bullish. The market is so big, good enough for multiple players having very good margins. I think the real the thing that investors can wait for is the whole revaluation on the sector. Especially being bullish on developing countries again.

Here's a contrarian take on $MELI: To me, it seems like WAY too many investors are still bullish $MELI for there to be a major behavioral edge here.